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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#491

Post by Almondsetat »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #351
Almondsetat wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about the cost of your life ? If the house resists the earthquake and you are inside it, you don't die.

Building to protect occupants and building to make the structure salvageable afterwards may be two different goals. Think crumple zones in cars.

This is not a good analogy.

Crumple zones in cars exist under the assumption that they will not be occupied by humans. In a house, on the other hand, any place could have a person inside of it during an earthquake, meaning that basically the entire house would need to stand to avoid any human being hurt.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#492

Post by Over2Chars »

tzs wrote: post #482
Over2Chars wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume that earthquake insurance in japan is a reasonable model for "world insurance". It looks like it's a reinsurance program: https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/financial_system/earthq... So, I think the answer is "no".

Japan is probably not a good comparison for home insurance because houses in Japan typically only have a 20 to 30 year lifespan. After that they are usually torn down and a new house is built.

Its a country built on seismically active volcanoes.

If there's earthquake insurance in japan, it should be do-able.

"In and around Japan, one-tenth of earthquakes in the world occur. " https://geoscienceletters.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/...

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#494

Post by infecto »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #487
infecto wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question. Why when people describe wood framed homes do they always phrase it like houses made from "firewood", "sticks", "twigs" etc? It at least for me always detracts from the argument at hand. You could just as easily build a wood framed home with an exterior shell that is fire resistant using modern materials or brick.

Some of us live in reinforced concrete socialist-built apartment buildings, and our homes don't burn like american houses do. Same for single family houses made from brics and cement (most houses here) Same for eg. gas explosions, this is one one looks like in us: https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/23081219122... And this is one over here: https://www.prlekija-on.net/uploaded/2018_11/eksplozija-plin...…

I think you missed the point. Its the same as me asking about the drab prisons you live in. Not to mention your cherry picked examples don't really hold up. A 2500sqft home filled with natural gas has a different explosive potential than a small apartment. I am also not sure it makes sense to build homes expecting for a natural gas explosion, not even a measurable risk. You can absolutely build a home that is fire resistant which most modern homes in fire risk areas are.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#495

Post by spjt »

I also know almost nothing about insurance other than what I've observed as a policyholder. Two things I would note though:

1) Maybe there needs to be some adjustments to how risk pooling is done. I live in Florida, so my homeowner's insurance is ridiculously expensive, but my property isn't really at risk from hurricanes etc, being very far inland. Realistically my property isn't any more at risk of anything than any property anywhere else in the country.

2) There doesn't seem to be enough flexibility in the offers. Most people seem to think insurance should cover any losses, but really people only need insurance to cover losses that they cannot recover from. I'd take a $100K deductible on my homeowner's insurance if it was offered and lowered my premiums significantly, but it's my understanding the law won't allow that.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#496

Post by aquaticsunset »

diogocp wrote: post #464
HacklesRaised wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair we are talking about an area of the country that is prone to seismic activity, it does limit the building materials. Perhaps what should be more commonly accepted is that the US is a land of great natural beauty! And large tracts of it should be left to nature. What's the average monthly leccy bill in Phoenix during the summer? $400? Where does LA get most of its water? Local sources? I don't think that's…

> To be fair we are talking about an area of the country that is prone to seismic activity, it does limit the building materials. Lisbon was destroyed by an earthquake/tsunami/firestorm combo in 1755 that killed tens of thousands. When the city was rebuilt, they came up with the idea of using a wooden frame structure for earthquake resistance and masonry walls for fire resistance. Nowadays, most new buildings seem to…

Comments like the last here irritate me. No, we all learn that wood is the only appropriate building material and the Salesforce tower in San Francisco required a whole forest of trees to construct.

The root comment is based on a very dated concept. Of course we can built earthquake resistant megastructures from steel and concrete. A lot of that building technology was created in California. It's either naive or willfully ignorant to think we can't solve this problem.

The issue with those materials is cost. Spread out, suburban design without density is expensive and wood frame construction is a great way to affordably build housing. Wood frame single family houses are not the problem - it's how we design our cities that's the problem.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#497

Post by tossandthrow »

infecto wrote: post #494
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of us live in reinforced concrete socialist-built apartment buildings, and our homes don't burn like american houses do. Same for single family houses made from brics and cement (most houses here) Same for eg. gas explosions, this is one one looks like in us: https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/23081219122... And this is one over here: https://www.prlekija-on.net/uploaded/2018_11/eksplozija-plin...…

I think you missed the point. Its the same as me asking about the drab prisons you live in. Not to mention your cherry picked examples don't really hold up. A 2500sqft home filled with natural gas has a different explosive potential than a small apartment. I am also not sure it makes sense to build homes expecting for a natural gas explosion, not even a measurable risk. You can absolutely build a home that is fire re…

A lot of people do, in fact, talk like that about eastern european homes (them selves included).

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#499

Post by api »

tobyhinloopen wrote: post #283

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

There were houses that survived recent wildfires because they were built to be in a fire zone and survive fires. I’m sure there was damage but nowhere near total loss.

I’m sure when homes are rebuilt the majority will not be fire resistant.

It’s possible to build for hurricanes and floods too but few do it. They build houses that get blown away and then tap insurance.

Insurance rates for properties not built to withstand the stresses of their environment will go up.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#500

Post by CharlieDigital »

grvdrm wrote: post #484
j16sdiz wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works for Taiwan and Japan

Is that brick or is it reinforced masonry?

Both. Older single story tends to be brick.

Newer multistory is typically cast in place with rebar reinforcement from what I can tell.

In the countryside, you might find more masonry block construction, but not in dense urban areas like Taipei and Taichung where the norm is to build up. Most "single family homes" are what we would consider very large condos in the US.

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