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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

cnn.com

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#491

Post by MasterYoda »

staplung wrote: post #63

It's worth mentioning that cable breakages happen quite often; globally about 200 times per year [1] and the article itself mentions that just last year, two other cables and a gas pipeline were taken out by an anchor. The Gulf of Finland is evidently quite shallow. From what I understand, cable repair ships are likely to use ROVs for parts of repair jobs but only when the water is shallow so hopefully they can figur…

The last time it happened, the Russian ship had also been seen unnaturally going back and forth over the cable where the damage occurred. These damages do not happen by themselves. Considering the current international situation and the fact that it happened in a short time in several places unnaturally in a limited region, the Baltic Sea, you have to be very naive if you do not see this as probable sabotage.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#492

Post by Symbiote »

Hamuko wrote: post #167
thewavelength wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hetzner says they are affected: https://status.hetzner.com/incident/ec8a2f28-e964-46cb-94fa-...

That is a very terse statement all things considered.

It was written in the middle of the night. I expect they'll update it later.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#493

Post by sekai »

tmnvix wrote: post #294
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process Really? Russia, with the 6th largest army in the world, had to pull in Iran and Pyongyang to not get invaded by the 13th largest [1][2]. Moscow is being a nuisance. That doesn't make NATO or Europe look weak, it makes Russia look pathetic. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/uk…

It looks more like they are just winning their war by the most effective means they have at their disposal. To say that Russia is just being a nuisance.... They have just won a war. That is clear as day now. Trump's election is the nail in the coffin. Immediately we saw Schultz call Putin and Zelensky declare that the war will be over early next year - implying a negotiated settlement. It's done. The Russians won. Ex…

> They have just won a war. That is clear as day now.

Ukraine still holds a part of Kursk region after months of Russia failing to take it back, is that what winning looks like?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#494

Post by blub »

looperhacks wrote: post #443
matthewdgreen wrote: post #295

This would be an excellent time for Germany to announce that it is tripling munitions production, and that they’re going to do whatever they have to do to protect the territorial integrity of Europe. But they won’t.

Our governing coalition just split and there will be early elections (most likely) in February. Nobody has a majority right now, any anmouncement is currently unlikely. In fact our lovely head of the Government just reaffirmed that we won't send taurus to the ukraine.

These long-range missiles are a short-time tactic designed to merely hurt the Russians or prevent them from doing certain actions under threat of pain and not a real strategy. Ukraine hasn’t had any battlefield successes since the Kursk Hail Mary which failed early and is now only maintained with the hope of improving their negotiating position when the time comes.

The approval of long-range strikes by the US & co likely means that Ukraine’s position was getting even worse than expected.

Furthermore, it became clear from the leak of German military communications that it would be German soldiers who would have to operate the weapons.

All in all this seems like a case of Scholz knowing Germany’s capabilities and risks and the public overestimating the former while dismissing the latter.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#496

Post by kqr »

ValentinA23 wrote: post #321
staplung wrote: post #63

It's worth mentioning that cable breakages happen quite often; globally about 200 times per year [1] and the article itself mentions that just last year, two other cables and a gas pipeline were taken out by an anchor. The Gulf of Finland is evidently quite shallow. From what I understand, cable repair ships are likely to use ROVs for parts of repair jobs but only when the water is shallow so hopefully they can figur…

A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217

Why is this analysis focused on the Baltics? That's p hacking, given that it happened to happen in the baltics.

Let's instead say there are roughly 20 ocean regions we would post hoc consider "the same". Now, given a breakage, what is the probability of at least two more in the same region and day? This is a Poisson distribution with lambda=200/365/20. The probability of two more independent breakages is 0.04 % for that specific day.

But again, picking a specific day would be p-hacking. Zooming out, an event that rare is expected to happen every seven years or so.

Now, "every seven years" is a far cry from "1 in 36 million." Whenever you get crazy p values like that, there is often an error or overlooked assumption in the analysis.

----

If you like this sort of thing, have a stab at forecasting competitions! I can recommend the Metaculus Quarterly Cup. The current one is in full swing so use the remaining 1.5 months of the year to practice and then you're set for when the January edition starts.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#497

Post by ninjin »

kookamamie wrote: post #485
card_zero wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* The Chinese / Russian owned what left Kaliningrad? * Which pipeline? * Last year (2023), not 2022?

A ship. The ship is named Newnew Polar Bear.

Reference for those of us unfamiliar with the incident:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newnew_Polar_Bear#Damage_to_un...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#499

Post by Moru »

CrazyCatDog wrote: post #377
ValentinA23 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217

“Knowing that 200 undersea cables break every year globally, estimate the probability that 3 cables break in the baltic sea on the same day.” I’m stealing this to use for grad-student mock-interviews—thank you!

Hint: The cables are often very close. If one breaks, the otherone also breaks :-)

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#500

Post by GordonS »

nobody9999 wrote: post #369
PKop wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>we could have fight for us C'mon. Their funding is entirely US dependent. What business is that of ours? We are enabling it. How could you possibly ask the question "what business is that of ours"? Explain yourself, that question is absurd.

>C'mon. Their funding is entirely US dependent. I believe you're misinformed about that. The majority of committed support by country has come from the United States, whose total aid commitment is valued at about $75 billion. The U.S. is followed by Germany and the United Kingdom for highest commitments overall. The European Union as a whole has committed approximately $93 billion in aid to Ukraine.[0] While the US i…

Right... but the EU is acting as US' proxy; the EU only threw all that money at the Ukraine (destroying itself economically in the process!) because of US "influence".

Many EU countries are now little more than US vassals.

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