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Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

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Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn’t always fraud or lying - you apply for insurance. Insurer asks you a million questions. One is “do you have a trampoline”? You honestly answer “No”. The fine print of the application form says you have to tell them if at any time your answers change. After a while, you forget it even asked you about a trampoline. Then, you get your kid a trampoline. Per insurance fine print, you are suppose to inform the insu…

Our economy runs on contracts. If one is able to avoid the terms of the contract by claiming one didn't read it, the whole system falls apart. (When I bought a house, the sales contract was maybe 50 pages. I went to the escrow company to sign. The escrow agent was visibly annoyed that I leaned back in the chair and set about reading every page. One of the pages that needed to be signed said nothing but "I have read a…

> If one is able to avoid the terms of the contract by claiming one didn't read it, the whole system falls apart.

Except, Courts have ruled that you can, at least sometimes, get out of the fine print of a contract by claiming you didn't read it. For example, see the notable 1962 Supreme Court of California case, Steven v. Fidelity Casualty Co [0].

In 1957, plaintiff purchased a life insurance policy covering plane crashes, from a vending machine in Los Angeles, with his wife as the beneficiary. His itinerary took him from LA to Chicago, and from there to Dayton, Ohio. On his return from Dayton to Chicago, he'd scheduled a one night stopover in Terre Haute, Indiana. In the morning, he went to the airport in Terre Haute, and was distressed to discover the flight had been cancelled due to technical issues, and he was going to miss his connection in Chicago. The airline agent referred him to a charter airline, who organised a charter flight for him and a handful of other passengers back to Chicago. Sadly, the charter flight crashed, and he died.

His widow sought to claim on the life insurance policy. The insurer denied the claim, on the grounds that the fine print of the policy said that it only applied to scheduled air carriers, not charter flights, and hence the flight on which the insured died was excluded. His widow sued the insurance company in the name of her deceased husband. The trial court sided with the insurer, on the grounds that this clause was clearly stated in the fine print of the policy, which the policyholder was expected to have read, and he had signed to say that he had.

However, on appeal, the Supreme Court of California overturned the judgement, and ruled for the widow. It held that, for consumer insurance contracts, any clause or exclusion which the policyholder could not have reasonably expected, must be pointed out prominently, not buried in the fine print. Since, it ruled, the policyholder had no particular reason to expect the exclusion of charter flights, and the insurer had not prominently stated that exclusion in the policy (e.g. by using a larger font), it was not legally binding.

And, from what I understand, the rule established in this 1962 case is followed in California law to this day, and has also been adopted by the courts of several other US states

[0] https://casetext.com/case/steven-v-fidelity-casualty-co

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#492
post #484

Can someone explain to my house insurance is so important? I live outside USA and I never bought an insurance, a common situation in my country.

It’s required if you have a mortgage. Even if you don’t have a mortgage, your home is probably worth several times your annual salary. Most people can’t afford that loss if it burns down, gets hit by a tornado etc…

Also, consider that for a great many Americans, their house is the only significant asset they have.

A huge number of Americans have no retirement savings at all [1]. For some of these people who do own a house, selling it at retirement is the only way they can avoid poverty (or at least maintain their quality of life), especially with the possibility of a future government significantly cutting Social Security benefits.

Even those with retirement savings often treat their houses as an asset to be leveraged or sold at retirement to help fund the latter stages of their lives [2].

These are all good reasons to carry property insurance even if you don't have a mortgage on the property that requires it.

1. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retirement-baby-boomers-with-no...

2. https://www.axios.com/2023/03/11/how-americans-are-using-the...

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#493
post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This quirk of California law (that insurers cannot factor in climate risk or anything other than trailing 20 year average costs) is why insurers are pulling out of the state; it isn't generally true of insurance.

If anyone is interested in learning more, this odd lots episode covers the changes to the home insurance market if a fair bit of depth: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BYbSz1MXdFA

Yeah, I just listened to that episode. :-)

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#494

I don't really understand the privacy concern here. To wit: insurers can demand actual inspection of your home when making underwriting decisions. The condition of your house is very much their business. Why is an aerial photograph of your roof, which everybody in the world already has on Google Maps, such a big deal?

I think that one difference might be that physical inspections don't scale. It seems to me that the current systems working (for regular people) requires that insurers not be too good at assessing risks. The better the insurer is at assessing risk the closer insurance gets to providing no value to the insured.

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. It’s a risk pooling mechanism. If a group of ten people all have a one in one-thousand per year chance of a million-dollar loss each year, then their annual premium will be: 10 x 0.001 x $1,000,000 = $10,000 (plus some administrative overhead and assuming a very basic risk model) It has nothing to do with who is rich and who is poor or making anyone come out ahead of their own losses.

> "If a group of ten people all have a one in one-thousand per year chance of a million-dollar loss each year" More importantly, each person in this group has a different chance of a million-dollar loss each year, and it's important if you're going to write a policy to get that chance as accurate as possible. Some members of the pool have a 1-in-1000 chance per year, others have a 1-in-10 chance. An efficient insuran…

Wouldn't an efficient insurance market be worthless since the expected net payout for everyone insured would trend to zero?

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#496

I don't really understand the privacy concern here. To wit: insurers can demand actual inspection of your home when making underwriting decisions. The condition of your house is very much their business. Why is an aerial photograph of your roof, which everybody in the world already has on Google Maps, such a big deal?

I think that one difference might be that physical inspections don't scale. It seems to me that the current systems working (for regular people) requires that insurers not be too good at assessing risks. The better the insurer is at assessing risk the closer insurance gets to providing no value to the insured.

Insurers don't on average provide value. If a risk can't be assessed, they will only offer a policy if they think it's value to them at the price they charge.

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#497
post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're really saying is that it's unrealistic for buyers to know that trampolines are dangerous.

Bathtubs are dangerous, being dangerous isn’t the only criteria here.

Ok, well, we've reached an argument that is dispositive for people who think trampolines are no more dangerous than bathtubs.

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#498

I don't really understand the privacy concern here. To wit: insurers can demand actual inspection of your home when making underwriting decisions. The condition of your house is very much their business. Why is an aerial photograph of your roof, which everybody in the world already has on Google Maps, such a big deal?

I think that one difference might be that physical inspections don't scale. It seems to me that the current systems working (for regular people) requires that insurers not be too good at assessing risks. The better the insurer is at assessing risk the closer insurance gets to providing no value to the insured.

Insurance can provide value even when risk is assessed perfectly! If everyone has a 1 in 100,000 chance of a $100,000 damage incident, they will have to keep $100,000 of savings to make sure they can avoid becoming homeless from an accident. But by paying $1.25 in insurance, (25% profit to the insurer), they can use their $100,000 for other purposes and generate much more than $1.25 in income from it.

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The irony here is that's what insurance customers want, too: to incur arbitrary risks and have other more responsible customers pay for them.

Customers want to pool risks with other customers that are lower risk than they are. Florida homeowner want to be on a national market because they are the highest risk group. Obviously the rest of us want Florida to be separate.

It's good to want things! But if you're a bad driver, you don't get to pool with people with zero accidents and tickets.

Re: Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images

#500

I don't really understand the privacy concern here. To wit: insurers can demand actual inspection of your home when making underwriting decisions. The condition of your house is very much their business. Why is an aerial photograph of your roof, which everybody in the world already has on Google Maps, such a big deal?

I think that one difference might be that physical inspections don't scale. It seems to me that the current systems working (for regular people) requires that insurers not be too good at assessing risks. The better the insurer is at assessing risk the closer insurance gets to providing no value to the insured.

In terms of sheer game-theoretic value, sure, perfect knowledge will reduce value gaps. However, the thing with having your house insured is that you will have somewhere to live if you have a house fire. The +/- for the insurer might be close, but going from having a house to having no house is a bigger deal than going from one house to a twice-as-expensive house.
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