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Is my plane a 737 MAX?

ismyplanea737max.com

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Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#491

Post by stouset »

StreetChief wrote: post #486
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you think all miles of flight are the same OP said air safety is going down broadly [1]. So yes, considering all air transport miles is valid given the context . [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38929237

more accidents is less safe, anyway you cut it. I really can't understand how you can view flying as not being less safe in this moment. If you want to do integration over huge time spans to make your point, lets start at zero and go to infinity... human lifespan is 0 years long average over history, seeing as we didn't exist for some period of time. So any changes to human life in shorter time spans is completely me…

> how you can view flying as not being less safe in this moment

There has been one passenger fatality aboard a major U.S. airline since November 2001.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#492

Post by bjtitus »

miketery wrote: post #458
spacemark wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All valid points, but I wonder if you've overshot your response to this (very slight) increase of risk to your personal safety. The statistical safety of aviation is the best it has ever been - 2023 set yet another record low for commercial aviation deaths and injuries. Your automobile trip to the grocery store is far riskier.

I think the critical thing to think about is the derivative of risk. How is risk changing over time. We are in a trend where risk is increasing. Boeing is a major institution responsible for building critical defense and civil technology. With many jobs on the line as well. People need to be held accountable, and we need a culture that allows people to speak up earlier and more often. Otherwise this will continue to…

> We are in a trend where risk is increasing

Is there any data supporting this? From what I can tell, the trend from both IATA [0] and ASN [1][2] data appears to be down. Any small YoY increase [3] in 2020 being attributable to PS752 shot down by Iran and an Embraer EMB-120RT shot down over Somalia. This downward trend seems to go for fatal and non-fatal accidents.

I completely agree with the need for oversight in this situation where corners appear to be cut and the FAA seems to be abdicating responsibility, but changing personal behavior requires some real data which I simply don't see.

[0] https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheet...

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-fatalities-from-av...

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/aviation-fatalities-per-m...

[3]

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#493

Post by [deleted] »

StreetChief wrote: post #413
stouset wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because other countries have—in general—a demonstrably poorer track record than major airlines in the U.S. for a wide variety of factors, including poorer training programs, maintenance regimes, operational expectations, and sometimes cultural norms that interfere with good CRM (crew resource management). I'll address the elephant in the room and say that I don't think it's coincidence that the two airframe losses in…

After watching Downfall, Lion air asked multiple times for additional training but was refused as this would cost boeing money. To me, that looks like Lion Air was more aware of issues than US operators. Boeing never even bothered to inform pilots of the MCAS system's existence before the first grounding.

[deleted]

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#494

Post by StreetChief »

teeray wrote: post #111
alpb wrote: post #26

Are you less safe on a 737 MAX than driving to the airport in a car? Genuinely curious, I’m trying to understand if this whole saga is statistically significant.

Fallacy of Relative Privation in this case. The correct question is: “Are you less safe on a 737 MAX than any other commercial aircraft?” The answer to this question for a properly functioning airline industry should always be “no.” Given the recent incidents, the answer to this question is, unfortunately, “yes.”

It's really that simple.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#495

Post by Brananarchy »

KoftaBob wrote: post #303
kube-system wrote: post #77

A lot of people don't realize that the fuselage of this plane isn't even made by Boeing, it's made by Spirit AeroSystems which also makes components for Airbus. We don't really know who to blame here until the investigation concludes.

> the fuselage of this plane isn't even made by Boeing, it's made by Spirit AeroSystems which also makes components for Airbus. Why would a company with the resources of Boeing choose to contract out such an important part of their planes, rather than vertically integrate that?

Boeing has been selling off various parts of its manufacturing for years to investment firms, then contracting out to what used to be their own factories. They are intentionally de-integrating (disintegrating?).

Some say this is for union-busting. Others say it's "just" boardroom financial engineering.

Whatever the reason, Boeing clearly hasn't cared about being a manufacturing company for a long time.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#496

Post by StreetChief »

jessriedel wrote: post #481
StreetChief wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope I was hoping to point out what is to me a failure of logic, that since previous versions of the plane flew safely, newly manufactured max 8 and 9s somehow have trillions of miles of safe flight. Should we combine all ford mustang car miles driven since the 80s to calculate the safety of the newest version?! Obviously the analogy doesn't hold completely, but the versions of the 737 are different. If I put a jet e…

Oh mean, should we look at the 2021 model year Ford Mustang to estimate the risk of 2024 model? What about different 2024 cars that were manufactured in winter vs summer? I'd say yes, but you're welcome to do what you want.

i'm shocked you would say yes to that, but consider all the 737 miles the same

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#497

Post by StreetChief »

jmward01 wrote: post #234
spaceywilly wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t want innovation that comes at the expense of human lives. The same thing is going on with self driving cars right now. It is wild to me that they aren’t required to follow the same regulations as airliners. The safety record of commercial airliners should be help up as an example of how the system works. It’s proof that we can set aside corporate greed and design systems that are safe if we want to. The way t…

> I don’t want innovation that comes at the expense of human lives. The same thing is going on with self driving cars right now. It is wild to me that they aren’t required to follow the same regulations as airliners If self driving cars follow the airline model we won't see them for, at best, decades. That is decades of 40k deaths a year in the current human driven model. Self driving cars have the potential to drop…

self driving cars have a theoretical and unproven potential to save lives, but are proven to fail, require human assistance, etc. There's no certainty self-driving cars will ever be safer, and we shouldn't let companies kill people to get feedback for improvement!

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#498

Post by 93po »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #484
barryrandall wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But cross-reference that with OpenSecrets to see if it's even worth pursuing. If they're in office, they're probably taking bribes from Boeing.

> cross-reference that with OpenSecrets to see if it's even worth pursuing I'm sympathetic to civic disengagement from nihilism, apathy, laziness or even ignorance. What I don't understand is proselytising it. > in office, they're probably taking bribes from Boeing This is bunk, even if we forget that campaign donations aren't bribes.

What do you call giving government officials lots of money to take anticompetitive actions that personally benefit you that they would otherwise never do and also have a clear conflict of interest with the purpose of their elected position?

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#499

Post by StreetChief »

stouset wrote: post #491
StreetChief wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

more accidents is less safe, anyway you cut it. I really can't understand how you can view flying as not being less safe in this moment. If you want to do integration over huge time spans to make your point, lets start at zero and go to infinity... human lifespan is 0 years long average over history, seeing as we didn't exist for some period of time. So any changes to human life in shorter time spans is completely me…

> how you can view flying as not being less safe in this moment There has been one passenger fatality aboard a major U.S. airline since November 2001.

Actually, if we average flight fatalities starting at the year zero, the average fatalities for all flying planes is zero!

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#500

Post by dylan604 »

alkonaut wrote: post #441
dylan604 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they change the model of the aircraft at the last second, they should allow a seat change to no longer sit next to the door

You can board with some crutches and they probably shift you away from the emergency exit seat right away. They tend to be sold at a premium these days due to slightly more legroom.

yeah, cause with all of the fun that traveling through random airports is to the average traveler, adding crutches just to avoid sitting at the door of a MAX is exactly what we would prefer to do!
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