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OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#491
I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level.

The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifically they mix up quantifiers and don't really understand the complex logical structure of many arguments) 4) they (current LLMs) cannot backtrack when they find that what they already wrote turned out not to lead to a solution, and it is too expensive to give them the thousands of restarts they'd require to randomly guess their way through the problem if you did give them that facility

Solving grade-school problems might mean progress in 1 and 2, but that is not at all impressive, as there are perfectly good tools out there that solve those problems just fine, and old-style AI researchers have built perfectly good tools for 3. The hard problem to solve is problem 4, and this is something you teach people how to do at a university level.

(I should add that another important problem is what is known as premise selection. I didn't list that because LLMs have actually been shown to manage this ok in about 70% of theorems, which basically matches records set by other machine learning techniques.)

(Real mathematical research also involves what is known as lemma conjecturing. I have never once observed an LLM do it, and I suspect they cannot do so. Basically the parameter set of the LLM dedicated to mathematical reasoning is either large enough to model the entire solution from end to end, or the LLM is likely to completely fail to solve the problem.)

I personally think this entire article is likely complete bunk.

Edit: after reading replies I realise I should have pointed out that humans do not simply backtrack. They learn from failed attempts in ways that LLMs do not seem to. The material they are trained on surely contributes to this problem.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The rational fear is that they will automate many lower middle class jobs and cause unemployment, not that Terminator was a documentary.

Wasn't this supposed to happen when PCs came out?

To some degree. Certainly the job of "file clerk" whose job was to retrieve folders of information from filing cabinets was made obsolete by relational databases. But the general fear that computers would replace workers wasn't really justified because most white-collar (even low end white-collar) jobs required some interaction using language. That computers couldn't really do. Until LLMs.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#493

Put this on my tombstone after the robots kill me or whatever, but I think all “AI safety” concerns are a wild overreaction totally out of proportion to the actual capabilities of these models. I just haven’t seen anything in the past year which makes me remotely fearful about the future of humanity, including both our continued existence and our continued employment.

Exactly. The rational fear is that they will automate many lower middle class jobs and cause unemployment, not that Terminator was a documentary.

By this logic we should just forbid the wheel. Imagine how many untrained people could work in transport and there would always be demand.

So why did the wheel not result in mass unemployment?

And factories neither?

Certainly it should have happened already but somehow it never did...

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's nothing like that. It solved a few math problems. Altman & co are such grifters. > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, the person said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company. Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s…

yeah, they really sound like they're all high on their own supply. however if they've really got something that can eventually solve math problems better than wolfram alpha / mathematica that's great, i got real disappointed early in chatgpt being entirely useless at math. lemme know when the "AGI" gets bored and starts grinding through the "List of unsolved problems in mathematics" on its own and publishing original…

THIS. If it has the whole corpus of research, math, physics, science etc to know how the world works and know it better than any human alive, it should be able to start coming up with new theories and research that combines those ideas. Until then, it's just regurgitating old news.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the word "sentience" is a red herring. The more important point is that the researcher at Google thought that the AI had wants and needs 'like a human', e.g. that if it asked the AI if it wanted legal representation to protect its own rights, this was the same as asking a human the same question. This needs much stronger evidence than the researcher presented, when slight variations or framing of the same que…

> that if it asked the AI if it wanted legal representation to protect its own rights, this was the same as asking a human the same question. You seem to be assigning a level of stupidity to a google AI researcher that doesn't seem wise. That guy is not a crazy who grabbed his 15 minutes and disappeared, he's active on twitter and elsewhere and has extensively defended his views in very cogent ways.

These things are deliberately constructed to mimic human language patterns, if you're trying to determine whether there is underlying sentience to it, you need to be extra skeptical and careful about analyzing it and not rely on your first impressions of it's output. Anything less would be a level of stupidity not fit for a Google AI researcher, which considering that he was fired is apropos. That he keeps going on about it after his 15 minutes are up is not proof of anything except possibly that besides being stupid he also stubborn.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#496

This matches far better with the board's letter re: firing Sam than a simple power struggle or disagreement on commercialisation. Seeing a huge breakthrough and then not reporting it to the board, who then find out via staff letter certainly counts as a "lack of candour".... As an aside, assuming a doomsday scenario, how long can secrets like this stay outside of the hands of bad actors? On a scale of 1 to enriched u…

To quote Reddit user jstadig,

> The thing that most worries me about technology is not the technology itself but the greed of those who run it.

Someone slimy with limitless ambition like Altman seems to be the worst person to be in charge of things like this.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#497
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

The thing is that a LLMs can point out a logic error in their reasoning if specifically asked to do so.

So maybe OpenAI just slapped an RL agent on top of the next-token generator.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's nothing like that. It solved a few math problems. Altman & co are such grifters. > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, the person said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company. Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s…

Saw a video of Altman talking about this progress. The argument was basically that this is a big leap on theoretical grounds. Although it might seem trivial to laymen that it can do some grade school math now, it shows that it can come up with a single answer to a problem rather than just running its mouth and spouting plausible-sounding BS like GPT does. Once they have a system capable of settling on a single correc…

I'm excited for when it can use it's large knowledge of data, science, research papers etc to understand the world so well that it'll be coming up with new technologies, ideas, answers to hard problems.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The rational fear is that they will automate many lower middle class jobs and cause unemployment, not that Terminator was a documentary.

By this logic we should just forbid the wheel. Imagine how many untrained people could work in transport and there would always be demand. So why did the wheel not result in mass unemployment? And factories neither? Certainly it should have happened already but somehow it never did...

The point isn't forbidding anything, it is realizing that technological change is going to cause unemployment and having a plan for it, as opposed to what normally happens where there is no preparation.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two out of three of your problems are solved already

Cars aren’t fully autonomous, and LLMs still lie all the time, so I don’t understand your math.

Ok so you accept that latest gen art generators can do fingers. I'd argue from the latest waymo paper they are reliable enough to be no worse than humans.
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