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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#491

Post by 0x457 »

aredox wrote: post #381
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

Remove its only leverage is in Russia's interest? Until now, there was a possibility that EU get tired and get bend over. Now that possibility is gone.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#492

Post by seydor »

wongarsu wrote: post #20
jefftk wrote: post #3

More details: Although neither was in operation, both pipelines [Nordstream 1 and 2] still contained gas under pressure. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the leaks were caused by sabotage, while his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen said it was “hard to imagine” they were a “coincidence”. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/sweden-issues-warni...

Sabotage makes sense, but by whom? Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Without the pipelines, the whole "you lift the sanctions, we deliver natural gas" game is gone. Even if unlikely to happen, it would have been an important psychological and political factor over the winter. Meanwhile European powers don't seem to have an incentive. They would benefit from…

Azerbaijan also stands to gain. And Qatar etc

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#493

Post by krzyk »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #226
krzyk wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest gain is for Russia, remember the long "repair" of NS1? Blocking the filling of gas reserves in Western Europe? Repair here, sabotage there and bam Germany has less gas for winter.

Russia can just close the valve. Germany has an option to talk with russia to make a deal, so russia reopens the valve... some other forces don't want that.

Russia can close valve pretending they didn't close it but at the same time sending a warning.

It is a 101 of economical warfare.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#495

Post by phpthrowaway99 »

aredox wrote: post #381
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on.

Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on.

If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#496

Post by [deleted] »

scyzoryk_xyz wrote: post #474
colinmhayes wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it was a state level actor they probably has some level of US support. Many reasons the US would want nordstream taken out, but might be unwilling to do it themselves. Enlisting someone like Poland would make sense.

And what would these many reasons be?

[deleted]

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#497

Post by marginalia_nu »

gpderetta wrote: post #228
ericmay wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy mar…

Yes, if US did it and it becomes public, it would be the best gift to Putin. Then again, Russia might not have the monopoly on stupidity.

Honestly, the timing doesn't make sense. I'd maybe the US blowing the pipelines a year ago when it looked as though NS2 might conceivably go online, but given how frosty relationships are right now between the EU and Russia, and given the scramble to wean Europe off Russian gas-dependency already is in progress, there just doesn't appear to be much of a point, not in the short term and not in the long term.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#498

Post by alexandre_m »

henearkr wrote: post #179
Kukumber wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Oh please!! ... The US invests trillions in reducing global warming yet you think they'd leak thousands of tons of methane in the air just like that??? .......

Sure, it's inconsequential.

The government and their politicians never get judged by their results, but by the means they put in place. They will go harder next time and request more money, stricter regulations, and more power to fight global warming.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#499

Post by phpthrowaway99 »

saiya-jin wrote: post #476
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

I'd vote for Russia too, not direct evidence obviously but makes more sense than anybody else. Elites who decide see that EU wants and will cut itself off from Russia anyway, just a question of when and its coming soon. So harsh punishment of this pesky EU right before winter starts to feel the consequences of daring to break away from Russian dependence. Russia made tons of money in past months on oil and gas due to…

This makes zero sense to me. What does Russia get by destroying their own pipeline? If they wanted to shutoff gas, thats just a turn of a valve.

Russia looses massive leverage by no longer being able to deliver gas, even if they wanted to.

Prior to this, if the public got cold enough, they could tell their government "forget Ukraine, we need gas. Go agree to get it or we will vote you out ASAP". Now.... There's no point in settling anything with Russia, since you're not going to get their gas anyway.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#500

Post by philistine »

axus wrote: post #260
Roark66 wrote: post #145

I don't see a mention that today is the day Poland officially opens up its pipeline to Denmark and Norway. The pipeline Russia (and to a much lesser extent Germany) put a lot of resources trying to jeopardize. Some of the things those two countries did include: Financing of various "grassroots ecology groups" that managed to find an extremely important field mouse (no joke!) habitat on the planned route which caused…

I liked the theory that Russia did it as a warning that they can blow up Poland's pipeline anytime.

I prefer the idea Putin wants to eliminate this future point of negotiation from underlings trying to oust him. Who will support someone to get rid of Putin now that they can't promise to reopen the valves and thus the profits to the oligarchs?
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