Dear Chess World • Hacker News Board

Re: Dear Chess World

#491

Post by School-Cotton » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 10:57 PM UTC

Imagine you know someone with a history of stealing cars and other valuable objects. He has been caught multiple times. Now you see him with a shiny new car that you’re pretty sure he can’t afford.

Did he steal it? Not necessarily — it’s entirely possible that he got a higher-paying legit job and saved up for it, or inherited money from a relative, or got it legally in some other way. He shouldn’t be convicted of a new crime with no other evidence just because he committed similar crimes in the past.

However, it would be entirely natural for a reasonable person to assume that theft is the most likely explanation of the facts, and to avoid trusting that person.

This is basically what happened with Hans. He has been caught cheating multiple times, and then had an unusually fast rise in rating. Is that rise impossible? No. But it’s consistent with cheating, and given his history, cheating is the simplest explanation.

So it would be totally normal for Magnus to refuse to trust such a person even though it can’t be conclusively proven that he’s still dirty. But even then, Magnus agreed to play against him, until further circumstantial evidence came to light and it just got to be too much.

So, is it possible that Hans is clean? Sure. If that’s indeed the case, do I feel sorry for him? No. He made the choice to destroy his own reputation when he cheated multiple times. If he doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt now, it’s on him.

Re: Dear Chess World

#492

Post by songeater » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 10:58 PM UTC

lumb63 wrote: post #204

armchairhacker wrote: post #131

What i think should happen is, Hans should play in tournaments which have much more security, and play against Magnus. If he did cheat it should be really obvious because his performance will suddenly drop. If he didn’t than he will play the same, but now with the added security he won’t have to face unbacked accusations, and there is no excuse for Magnus to refuse to play with Hans like he has been doing now. Even i…

Didn’t he play the remainder of the tournament he beat Magnus in, and proceed to lose six straight under heightened security against worse players?

not quite, but he didn't win again: https://chess-results.com/tnr670809.aspx?lan=1&art=2

Re: Dear Chess World

#493

Post by Dylan16807 » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 10:58 PM UTC

Bud wrote: post #460

roflyear wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now analyze a video of Magnus being wanded!

Why? Has Magnus admitted to cheating on multiple occasions in the past? No. He has not.

As a control.

You want to look for evidence that such an intense level of scrutiny is too good at finding signs of ill intent.

Re: Dear Chess World

#494

Post by Waterluvian » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 10:59 PM UTC

I have no opinions on the actual event given I have no clue what the details are.

But accusing someone of cheating without any concrete evidence doesn’t sit well with me. It creates a situation where it declares all exceptional cases impossible. It’s impossible for growth. It’s impossible that someone could lose to a weaker player.

I suspect that people are able to say “even without concrete evidence, this is astronomically unlikely and the simplest explanation by far is that they cheated.”

Nevertheless, it all just doesn’t quite sit right with me. There’s something manifestly unpalatable about saying, “they cheated because surely nobody could ever do that.”

Please don’t see this comment as something that warrants explanation for why the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. I’m not really interested in the merits of this specific case. I’m also probably doing a poor job communicating this feeling I struggle myself to understand.

Re: Dear Chess World

#495

Post by rbongers » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 11:01 PM UTC

lvl102 wrote: post #352

rbongers wrote: post #308

It's not convincing to say that Hans was cheating because few people can beat Magnus playing black when Magnus was playing poorly in that game. I still feel like more information that could come out at any moment that could swing the situation in either direction, and this statement doesn't say much. I wish Magnus and chess.com would come out with whatever extra information they have.

I don’t think you understand why cheating is so bad. Once you know your opponent COULD BE cheating, your approach changes entirely. You will know this if you played against Stockfish.

What was the evidence that Hans COULD be cheating on top of the two incidents we know about? Was it, for example, video evidence of Hans using Stockfish on an illegal phone during an OTB tournament, or was it second hand accounts of Hans cheating during an online game years ago after he claimed to stop? We have no idea and that's still the issue, even if this topic is entirely about making players more comfortable and not actually about whether Hans was cheating on the game in question.

Re: Dear Chess World

#496

Post by ceejayoz » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 11:02 PM UTC

roflyear wrote: post #376

ceejayoz wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Said buddy has publicly admitted to cheating multiple times prior.

He's trying to own up to his mistakes.

Perhaps, but that’s the first step to forgiveness and trust, not the last.

Re: Dear Chess World

#497

Post by hellcow » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 11:02 PM UTC

roflyear wrote: post #365

hellcow wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fabi (for those that don’t know, he’s another one of the best chess players in the world) gave a statement along the lines of, “I know of at least one case where I was certain cheating happened, and Regan’s analysis missed it, so take any of his analysis with a huge grain of salt.” So here we have a whole bunch of the world’s best chess players and chess.com believing that Niemann repeatedly cheats, in addition to Ni…

Fabi also said (during the same interview, I'm sure) that he doesn't think Hans cheated. Your last statement there is really misleading and even dishonest.

No, it is not dishonest. Fabi said don’t trust Regan’s analysis. He also said that he didn’t think Hans cheated in that one game given the moves played (before Magnus gave his reasoning, so perhaps Fabi’s opinion would change). Fabi never said “Hans is not a cheater.” Rather, he argued it’s possible to cheat, and detection methods FIDE uses are not sufficient. If Hans is cheating, Fabi implied that Regan’s analysis likely wouldn’t catch it.

Magnus, Ian, and Hikaru at the very least have pretty openly (given the legal threats flying around) said/implied they believe Hans cheats, and chess.com has very explicitly said this.

Maybe not all of their comments and beliefs focus on this particular OTB game, but that’s not how you catch a cheater, since it’s rare to find a smoking gun. You look at a pattern of behavior. Hans has cheated in the past, and many top players believe he is cheating in some way, in at least some games, on a continued basis… which is why Magnus refuses to play Hans, and why we’re even having this discussion.

Re: Dear Chess World

#498

Post by systemvoltage » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 11:02 PM UTC

stouset wrote: post #432

systemvoltage wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mangus is human after all, who occassionally make blunders of sub-GM levels: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=magnus+chess+bl... That just shows that he is fallible, which I empathize with. Also don't forget the bishop blunder by Nepo in the world championship against Magnus. That was a 1800 level blunder trapping the bishop. Nepo is in top 5 GM list. The fact of the matter is that all GMs including Magnu…

Niemann, as black, equalized reasonably early on and then had a consistent lead against Magnus the entire game . Magnus did make mistakes in the game, but only after a near-perfect grind for 27 moves. To be clear, I'm not saying this to make a claim that this is definitive proof of anything. I'm pointing out that the theory that Magnus simply blundered away the game doesn't hold water. Niemann had the advantage—as bl…

Gotham's analysis here is quite important at this time stamped link: https://youtu.be/pfqXnFNnDII?t=433

I agree but Magnus also plays bad games once in a while. So it is not quite clear from a sample size 1 and a std deviation of infinite.

Re: Dear Chess World

#499

Post by kodt » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 11:03 PM UTC

SCAQTony wrote: post #411

erdevs wrote: post #97

A key fact to understand in thinking about cheating in over the board chess: a strong player can defeat a much stronger opponent with just 1-3 hints per game indicating the strongest move. For example, most chess experts agree that a ~2600 rated player with 2-3 hints at key moments per game would be expected to beat a ~2800 rated player. Many people might assume that a cheater needs guidance every move, thereby requi…

Perhaps play naked in a Faraday cage?

With no visible or audible audience either.

Re: Dear Chess World

#500

Post by Revery42 » Mon, Sep 26, 2022, 11:03 PM UTC

Perhaps an interesting piece of this is that high-level play is becoming so close to computer play that cheating is increasingly difficult to uncover. I feel that something in the sport has become lost from all this.