491–500 of 516 posts
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They are also an innovation engine. You have to value all of the things they havent created yet but will.
What part of their market cap is unrealized tech dreams and what part is substance, in the traditional value investor sense, in your opinion?
Companies like Tesla are not for traditional value investors. Bonds and boring stocks or ETFs serve that purpose.
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Zooming out to a global level, geopolitics becomes important to consider as well. As soon as renewables are able to change the power dynamics between eg Russia and Ukraine (Ukraine is dependant on Russia for oil for heating in the winter) things get very interesting indeed. We are still decades away from that imo.
Surely Ukraine just needs to allow EDF to build few nuclear power stations on long term agreements to end their dependence on Russian heating oil?
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On the other hand, if you want the EV revolution for its own sake, investing in Tesla as a generator of hype can make instrumental sense.
I mean, if "Make the richest man on earth richer, so a few more news stories will be written about him, because that might lead people to look into EVs" is how you want to spend your hard-earned dollars, I'm not going to stop you. I'd suggest there are far more efficient ways to bring about social change, both in terms of fewer negative side effects and more bang for your buck.
Recommend some of those better ways to promote EV?
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> Tesla is Apple of car manufacturing. Can you explain what on earth that means? Apple makes good use of their device ecosystem, purchased app lockin and network effects to maintain an excellent position. Tesla has none of those benefits, other than their US (not EU etc. which is required to be open) supercharger network (which they promised to open to all EVs). When I read your post (e.g. it's obvious as soon as you…
It means they bet on vertical integration, and they make product decisions no other manufacturer has the balls to make, and win because of it. Observe how _nobody_ can make a laptop that's better than MBP in spite of having several _decades_ to observe what Apple does. The same is the case here. Tesla has insurmountable avantage in this regard simply because they are not a "traditional" car manufacturer and have no "…
I have noticed it in few other industries, I just find it amazing that some companies just dont want to change when you can clearly see that your competitor has a better product.
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Tesla spends like 5x as much per car on R&D. They literally developed a completely new battery manufacturing factory and cathode plant from the ground up. Plus of course their own batteries with their own chemistries. No other car company comes even close to that. They are vertically integrating to the point where they themselves are building their own battery manufacturing equipment. They are even slowly getting int…
I don't know where your figures come from. I've seen Tesla's 2020 FY R&D expense was $1.5Bn, but that is dwarfed by the other players if the linked data is correct[1]. So apart from paying a massive premium, dollar for investment dollar you'd get much more R&D for your money buying a basket of non-Tesla automakers than tesla. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/566060/automotve-firms-b...
We will see if they sustain that, but it looks like that is their plan.
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So is Tesla another labour rights arbitrage at heart? That would make me sad. It feels to me that even taking the company at face value, this valuation is just silly. And I thought that for years, so clearly as a short-seller I’d be toast. But the more the price levitates, the more unreal it feels.
No it isn't. The difference between union and non union is far smaller then people have in the idealistic fantasies. Tesla employees are payed just as well, and with stock options they actually historically have been paid WAY, WAY better. The thing about Tesla is that its forward looking for a long time since they have a stable leadership with a clear long term plan. This leadership has been leading the company for m…
That's extremely unrealistic. The aeroplane industry is extremely complex, and there are heavy regulations where (hopefully) Tesla's "move fast and break things" + use commercial grade stuff and refuse warranty ( was it the chips in their screens or the screens themselves in some models that were not made for constant use in a car) approach won't fly. 10 years is a decent development time for a plane, if you skip the parts that Tesla have no experience with it and there'd be plenty of R&D to make them work. For reference, Bombardier, a company with decades of aeronautics experience and an established supply chain, started work on the C-Series in 2004. First flight was in 2014, first commercial service in 2016, and it nearly banrkupted them. Unless Tesla are already currently working on an electric airplane, i call bullshit on them having one in 10 years. Considering they already have the truck and semi which are oversold and underdelivered/delayed, do you think they have the capacity to tackle such a huge undertaking any time soon?
As to your other comment that Airbus won't do it - they've been on it since 2010:
https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/electric-fli...
If one of the biggest companies in aviation has been working on it for a decade and doesn't have anything commercially viable yet to show for it, and estimate it will take them another decade for this, what makes you think a company with no aeronautics experience and history of overpromising and underdelivering can do it all in a decade?
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No it isn't. The difference between union and non union is far smaller then people have in the idealistic fantasies. Tesla employees are payed just as well, and with stock options they actually historically have been paid WAY, WAY better. The thing about Tesla is that its forward looking for a long time since they have a stable leadership with a clear long term plan. This leadership has been leading the company for m…
> For myself, I would already consider electric flight as part of their future revenue. Its a logical next step but it will take 10 years. Of course I can understand that other people think this is crazy That's extremely unrealistic. The aeroplane industry is extremely complex, and there are heavy regulations where (hopefully) Tesla's "move fast and break things" + use commercial grade stuff and refuse warranty ( was…
People said the same about SpaceX. And yet they beat everybody. Tesla already works with SpaceX in a number of ways.
Do you think Musk or Tesla are not able to adjust to different industry? Are they so bull headed that they will say 'we make cars like this therefore we make planes like this'.
Tesla and SpaceX working together have the technologies required and the financials to do it, and just as important, the will to do it.
> was it the chips in their screens or the screens themselves in some models that were not made for constant use in a car
That this is still the example of 'look at this terrible company' is just embracing. A relatively young company on its first mass produced car made a mistake. Therefore for the rest of history they can never accomplish anything and they will forever be known as 'the company that selected the wrong screen'.
> it nearly banrkupted them
Tesla has better finances and ability to raise money.
> Unless Tesla are already currently working on an electric airplane, i call bullshit on them having one in 10 years.
Maybe that is the case, I don't have a fixed timeline. What I care more about is who will have it first, who makes the best and at what price can they produce them.
I don't think the existing companies will push hard enough.
I do think they are already working on battery chemistry needed for the airplanes. That is very much most difficult and unknown part about electric flight.
> Considering they already have the truck and semi which are oversold and underdelivered/delayed
The primary issue is battery supply. More products with a fixed amount of battery-supply does not mean you make more money. Overcoming battery supply and improving battery quality is the primary task right now.
> As to your other comment that Airbus won't do it - they've been on it since 2010:
Just as existing car manufactures had been working on EV since the 1970s. I think they are adopting some wrong strategies and they have very little intensive to kill their existing business.
The German car manufactures were still committing Disel gate when Tesla was producing EVs.
> estimate it will take them another decade for this, what makes you think a company with no aeronautics experience and
Maybe my estimate is wrong, but the earnings potential is there even if it takes longer. And Musk and SpaceX have lots experience.
How much experience did Tesla have in battery design and battery manufacturing 10 years ago? Almost non. 10 years later they literally have the highest output and fastest battery manufacturing line in human history producing their own cells with their own chemistries.
How much experience did SpaceX have with space capsule designs? Non in 2009 and in 2020 they launched humans. Lets consider relanding rockets, in 2011 they started working on it, they did it in 2016 and its totally routine now.
You can do amazing things if you have the will, the financials and the people to put behind an effort.
> history of overpromising and underdelivering can do it all in a decade?
People are so obsessed with that. They under-deliver because the promise insanely ambitious things. And even when the underdeliver, the results are still great. Should I be mad that they didn't deliver the Semi yet when instead the manage 50% YoY growth without it?
Why is nobody impressed that they are hitting their buissness targets WITHOUT interducing new products. That seem to be totally ignored, specially when 'lack of demand' was the main criticism of Tesla for a long time.
As it was with the Model 3, first people believe it want happen. Then when it does people say it wont scale. And then it will come on big. The Semi when it comes out will be just as demand constraint as rest of Tesla cars. Tesla will be a huge part of the global Semi market, I have little question about that. Its not like the other players in that space are rolling out massive amounts of electric semis yet either.
And anyways everybody will be battery constraint so for everybody Semi in large rollout will be tricky for everybody.
Again, I don't care if people don't agree with any of this. I don't give investing advice. Don't gamble with money I can't lose. There is a big chance this wont happen.
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Electric cars are also a good fit for rental companies for another reason: Their customers want to make a good first impression on customers, new friends and other individuals they rarely see.
I'm sure some people do, but do most people really judge each other on rental cars ? That seems, well, stupid. Frankly, I'm not sure if most customers ever even see me in my rental car.
People judge each other on what car they drive, regardless of how they got their hands on it.
I was very pessimistic about Tesla and confused by their stock price. But I now believe that they indeed are doing it and that we’re finally at the EV revolution. I’m not an early adopter type and the Teslas don’t excite me at all, but I’m really delighted that the market is evolving. I’m delighted that I was wrong.
Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house. They are also an energy company, both generation and storage, but also distribution, like gas stations. Think Exxon, BP, Chevron, ARCO, etc. They are probably a few other things, but this is the mystery o…
Tesla's stock price is confusing because it cannot be explained, let alone justified, by any market analysis, results, or market price calculation. It's purely willingness to pay driven by meme stock speculation.
> They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house.
This assertion makes absolutely no sense given that Tesla's market value is currently greater than Volkswagen's market value, and by no means is Tesla even comparable with Volkswagen in terms of any of the criteria you've brought up.
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Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house. They are also an energy company, both generation and storage, but also distribution, like gas stations. Think Exxon, BP, Chevron, ARCO, etc. They are probably a few other things, but this is the mystery o…
> Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. Tesla's stock price is confusing because it cannot be explained, let alone justified, by any market analysis, results, or market price calculation. It's purely willingness to pay driven by meme stock speculation. > They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component producti…