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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#491

Post by root_axis »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #386
yboris wrote: post #312

Relevant tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1381967753234411530 J&J doses delivered: 7 million. Reported blood clotting events: 6. Daily risk of dying of COVID19 in the US: 1 in 330,000. CDC and FDA: Pause the J&J vaccine. Draw your own conclusion on how aligned these folks are with your interests.

This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

> If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero

Death is not the only risk factor. Covid-19 carries the risk of serious complications for those who recover, even including those who are infected but asymptomatic.

https://jacksonhealth.org/persistent-pulmonary-problems-in-a...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#492

Post by CyberRabbi »

josephcsible wrote: post #453
FabHK wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I have my numbers approximately right, getting the J&J vaccine is a bit safer than taking a plane trip, while getting COVID is about as safe as taking a trip in the space shuttle.

Your chance of dying from COVID is heavily dependent on your age and any preexisting conditions, so any comparison that uses a single probability for everyone is totally wrong for a very large number of people.

The exact same caveat can be made for people who are vulnerable to the extreme side effects of the J&J vaccine. It depends on specific characteristics of the person taking the vaccine. “any comparison that uses a single probability for everyone is totally wrong for a very large number of people.”

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#493

Post by ggreer »

oceanplexian wrote: post #442
jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

Multiple advanced health care systems in the world are independently pulling these vaccines. I wouldn’t brush it off as the FDA being overly cautious. None of these vaccines have been tested in humans for more than 12 months. And you’re assuming that health authorities can wave a magic want and instantly know who is having some kind of undetected brain clotting? I think the risks are extremely unclear even though peo…

Not a single one of those health authorities allowed vaccine challenge trials. That tells you how much they care about saving lives versus how much they care about not getting blamed for any deaths.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#494

Post by Der_Einzige »

fasteddie31003 wrote: post #196
throwaway823882 wrote: post #54

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it was acting "out of an abundance of caution". How is putting millions of people at risk of long-term (or fatal) complications from COVID-19 an abundance of caution ? An abundance of caution would mean you give people the vaccine because that way, less people will die! Unless a thousand people are dying from the vaccine a day, the math is simple!

The FDA are honestly being way too conservative in their vaccine ethics. They are letting deontological ethics trump consequentialism. My motto lately is FDA PLEASE GET OUT OF MY WAY.

Deontology is the worst thing that ever happened to ethical philosophy. Kant can rot in hell where he belongs for it.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#495

Post by baggy_trough »

oneepic wrote: post #464
baggy_trough wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An utterly appalling decision by CYA bureaucrats or innumerate idiots. The leadership of the CDC and FDA must be replaced.

You'd replace an entire team due to one decision you didn't like?

Half a million Americans are dead. This is wartime. We don't have time to coddle bureaucrats who make awful decisions.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#496

Post by throwawayboise »

mumblemumble wrote: post #161

Meta-comment: The ratio of downvoting to discussion in here is rather worrisome. The current top thread isn't really even about COVID vaccines; it's primarily an argument of the "this isn't an argument, this is contradiction" variety about birth control, of all things. It should be possible to have a mature, good-faith conversation about this, even on a pseudonymous web forum.

It should be possible, but for many people, another person's opinion on these vaccines is a binary value. It's either right or wrong, and if it's wrong the person is summarily dismissed as having any relevant input to the conversation. Worrisome is correct.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#497

Post by raverbashing »

doikor wrote: post #430
jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

The problem isn't 7 out of 7 million odds. It is that it is an unknown side effect that did not come up in the original studies. We have approved vaccines with worse side effects before. The difference is that we knew what those side effects were and weighed the risk vs reward and made the call to use it.

> It is that it is an unknown side effect that did not come up in the original studies.

Well, obviously it didn't. Exactly because it is so rare

A clinical study with (I think) 30k people can't detect something that's 1 in a million case

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#498

Post by lghh »

FunnyLookinHat wrote: post #459
doikor wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't 7 out of 7 million odds. It is that it is an unknown side effect that did not come up in the original studies. We have approved vaccines with worse side effects before. The difference is that we knew what those side effects were and weighed the risk vs reward and made the call to use it.

Yeah and we only just started to roll this vaccine out - so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. You're right that 7 / 7,000,000 are good odds, and most people would likely take them - but it would be unwise to not give people an educated choice between vaccines if there are known risks.

> but it would be unwise to not give people an educated choice between vaccines if there are known risks

They are not giving people an educated choice, they are taking that choice away until they deem it okay to give it back. Education is knowing that 7/7,000,000 had a blood clot + the other tests that were done leading up to its release. We know that now. We're educated.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#499

Post by jerf »

textman wrote: post #322

"The incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) varies between studies, but it is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year. A recent study in the Netherlands with comprehensive ascertainment suggested a much higher incidence." https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0... So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low. Glad I read about all this because I got the J&J…

"So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low."

No, because those 6 cases are something more like "1 per day" rather than "per year". Or maybe "per week". But either way, you need to multiply the "per year" base rate by a large number to get the base rate for "coincidentally happened immediately after a particular event", for some definition of "immediately".

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#500

Post by JediWing »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #309

John Campbell suggested on his video the other day that perhaps this is happening because some injectors are not aspirating. What that means is that when an intramuscular injection is given you want to ensure that it goes into the muscle and not into a vein. So the proper way to do this is for the person doing the injection to first pull out the syringe (after it's been stuck into the arm) a bit to make sure there's…

If this were the case it would be odd that this is happening a.) in a consistent subset of women 18-38 b.) that it would emerge in a 1-shot regimen rather than a 2-shot regimen, because it would seem more likely that any one individual would experience this more frequently with 2 chances for human error rather than 1
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