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Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

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Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#491

Post by lighttower »

tgtweak wrote: post #375
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is the high tomorrow in Dallas is supposed to be about 10°F. The typical winter high for Dallas is a bit below 60°F. This means that the demand for heating is about 4-6× what it normally would be for winter.

Seems to be a combination of many things (a perfect storm...): • Dwellings are not insulated to the same level as their northern counterparts. Over 60% of houses in Texas have single pane glass. • Texas seems to rely substantially on heat pumps for residential heating, with fallback to resistive heating. At 10°f very few heat pumps can supply sufficient heat to keep even a decently insulated house properly heated - m…

Why does Quebec use more electrical power in winter if most (nearly all) of their heating is natural gas/oil based?

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#492

Post by ubermonkey »

mattmcknight wrote: post #484
ubermonkey wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greetings from Texas. Yeah, all that is true. You build based on how things usually are, or at least usually WERE when the dwelling was built. I live in Houston -- very close to downtown, so I'm only about 50 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. This makes it VERY FUCKING WEIRD INDEED that my entire yard is covered in snow, and it is 16F outside. This is NOT Houston weather. It's almost unprecedented -- it's certainly neve…

I lived in a similar structure for a while, a 3 story townhouse with single zone hvac, thermostat on the second floor. What was in that system that made it work was three dampers, one for each the floors. If you can locate the main duct going to each floor, you should be able to add a manually operated damper to reduce flow to the upper floor when heating and reduce flow to the lower floor when cooling. When I switch…

We have a sort of dumb zoning already, which is a thermostat on the first floor, but it only allows the first to opt out of whatever heating or cooling is happening in the rest of the house. This is never something we want to do.

Before COVID were were shopping to upgrade, so we're not going to put any more upgrade money into this house, but if we were going to stay I'd absolutely make changes in this.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#493

Post by ubermonkey »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #470
ubermonkey wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"So that people can feel rich and high status" is an insulting way to phrase "has a different set of architectural preferences than I do." It heats and cools far more efficiently than the traditional homes in Houston (mostly pier and beam construction). There's more to home appeal than thermodynamics, especially in a mild climate.

Houston is not a mild climate, based on how much AC usage I’ve seen there. Conditioning an extra 2 to 12ft above your head is absolutely choosing vanity over energy efficiency. However, most people don’t even have the choice since they’re making trade offs between various neighborhoods of various income levels, and once you get above a certain income, all the houses are made with open foyers and tall ceilings. The bu…

From a thermodynamics POV, we're very mild. We only ever really want to cool about 20F. Heating is nominal. Most places to the north end up with significantly more expensive heating needs AND roughly equivalent AC needs.

You are still being insulting, or absurdly reductive. Neither is especially welcome. Normal humans value all sorts of competing concerns when evaluating a home where they may spend many many years. Maybe YOU only value thermodynamics and care nothing for aesthetics, but that doesn't mean people who don't share your POV are only trying to project status or whatever other uncharitable thing you envision.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#494

Post by ubermonkey »

fancyfredbot wrote: post #482
ubermonkey wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"So that people can feel rich and high status" is an insulting way to phrase "has a different set of architectural preferences than I do." It heats and cools far more efficiently than the traditional homes in Houston (mostly pier and beam construction). There's more to home appeal than thermodynamics, especially in a mild climate.

I'm very much in favour of this kind of aesthetic, but having both the heating on and the window open all winter is sad and should be unnecessary.

To be super clear: the amount of heating actually done in a normal Houston winter day is very very minimal. It's just that enough of it collects in the high point of a tall home that an open window is desirable for balance (and, honestly, humidity).

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#496

Post by csharptwdec19 »

lighttower wrote: post #491
tgtweak wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems to be a combination of many things (a perfect storm...): • Dwellings are not insulated to the same level as their northern counterparts. Over 60% of houses in Texas have single pane glass. • Texas seems to rely substantially on heat pumps for residential heating, with fallback to resistive heating. At 10°f very few heat pumps can supply sufficient heat to keep even a decently insulated house properly heated - m…

Why does Quebec use more electrical power in winter if most (nearly all) of their heating is natural gas/oil based?

IDK what it's like in quebec specifically, but a lot of my friends in Ontario would have multiple space heaters (depending on how many people were around and where they were) that they would use in the winter months for more 'localized' warmth and the HVAC was more about keeping pipes from freezing.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#497

Post by TulliusCicero »

tgtweak wrote: post #375
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is the high tomorrow in Dallas is supposed to be about 10°F. The typical winter high for Dallas is a bit below 60°F. This means that the demand for heating is about 4-6× what it normally would be for winter.

Seems to be a combination of many things (a perfect storm...): • Dwellings are not insulated to the same level as their northern counterparts. Over 60% of houses in Texas have single pane glass. • Texas seems to rely substantially on heat pumps for residential heating, with fallback to resistive heating. At 10°f very few heat pumps can supply sufficient heat to keep even a decently insulated house properly heated - m…

> At 10°f very few heat pumps can supply sufficient heat to keep even a decently insulated house properly heated - my guess is that many are using 2-3x less efficient resistive heaters at night.

How is it possible for heating devices to be less efficient? Where does the waste energy go?

Normally, waste energy in devices powered by electricity means it's lost to heat, but here it would be lost to...?

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#498

Post by lukeschlather »

lighttower wrote: post #491
tgtweak wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems to be a combination of many things (a perfect storm...): • Dwellings are not insulated to the same level as their northern counterparts. Over 60% of houses in Texas have single pane glass. • Texas seems to rely substantially on heat pumps for residential heating, with fallback to resistive heating. At 10°f very few heat pumps can supply sufficient heat to keep even a decently insulated house properly heated - m…

Why does Quebec use more electrical power in winter if most (nearly all) of their heating is natural gas/oil based?

Central heaters may be natural gas/oil based but the blowing fans or water circulation are typically electric. Also people will supplement with electric space heaters for whatever room they are in while keeping the house somewhat colder than they would prefer.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#499

Post by eigenvector »

namibj wrote: post #277
eigenvector wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The technical term for what you're describing is under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) and it is part of most modern power systems around the world, including all of the North American grids. It is an important safeguard against system collapse, however, the goal of system operators is to avoid reaching this stage. In fact, resolving contingency events without interruption of "firm load" (that is, loads that have not…

In the central european grid, there is actually a market where companies can offer frequency stabilization service to the grid, which exists in both directions. It doesn't matter if the combat a lack of power in the grid with shedding loads or spinning up another generator. This exists on a few different timescales, and the faster-responding contracts trigger at higher frequency deviations. Primary operating reserve…

Yes, this function exists in some fashion in every grid (although the economic setup of how you're paid for that service differs widely).

The problem in ERCOT is demand massively exceeding available supply over a period of days. You need to carry your primary operating reserve all the time, because you never know when a generator or transmission line may trip.

When there's simply a lack of energy supply to meet demand on a steady state basis, you still have to preserve your primary reserves for other unexpected events and cannot call them in to meet longer term (30+ minutes) demand. So load shedding happens once available reserve dips below a certain threshold (generally around the single of the largest single contingency on the grid which may be the largest single generator or a line that feeds multiple large generators).

ERCOT hasn't run out of primary reserve, but they are going to have to shed load in order to maintain adequate reserves. You always have to shed load before exhausting reserves, because one moves you closer to stability while the other moves you further away (consuming operating reserve).

At this point, with power prices spiking to thousands of dollars per MWh, any plant that can run is running, including some that have come out of planned outage earlier to help out (and be paid handsomely). Even if you simply invoked some emergency order that "all generators must run until further notice", there simply isn't enough capacity due to the large number of generators on forced outage. There's no way out of that situation except temporary load shedding.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#500

Post by chaboud »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #427
ubermonkey wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greetings from Texas. Yeah, all that is true. You build based on how things usually are, or at least usually WERE when the dwelling was built. I live in Houston -- very close to downtown, so I'm only about 50 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. This makes it VERY FUCKING WEIRD INDEED that my entire yard is covered in snow, and it is 16F outside. This is NOT Houston weather. It's almost unprecedented -- it's certainly neve…

> The first problem is just distribution. Our house has a modern 'open' style floorplan, with soaring ceilings in the middle (living) floor. Heat, of course, rises. This style of house made so that people can feel rich and high status while wasting enormous amounts of energy to heat and cool is an affront to our future generations. And it’s almost inescapable unless you’re interested in custom building or buying an o…

“ This style of house made so that people can feel rich and high status while wasting enormous amounts of energy to heat and cool is an affront to our future generations.”

Wow dude. You decided why people want specific things and let us know that it’s an affront to future generations. I’m glad it tops the list over deep sea drilling, paved suburban road jungles, ocean acidification, and dubstep (they will look back and mourn the loss of our sanity in this age, but it’s so addictive...).

Maybe people just walk into a tall place and feel more comfortable in it? Maybe builders and markets respond to purchasers and their response to something that lots of people find more comforting?

Perhaps a hyper efficient off-grid renewable-driven earthen hovel isn’t for everyone?

I live in a small, modest, low ceiling home with zoned temperature management and comprehensive energy usage monitoring. That’s great for me and my family, but it’s a preference.

And, you know what? Open plan high ceilings are nice, especially when you don’t have kids and can hear each other more easily.

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