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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#491

Post by elicash »

mattdeboard wrote: post #287
elicash wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just went and fact-checked myself via Google Trends. It does seem like the term had similar amount of web search traffic in late-2005 across all categories, compared to now. I didn't expect that at all. However, "News Search" only goes back to January 2008, so it's difficult to tell if 2005 also had similar news coverage. But the graph since 2008 definitely shows a massive increase: https://trends.google.com/trends…

You were asking a totally reasonable question and I gave a needlessly curt & unhelpful response. Especially considering I heard "yield inversion" and its variations literally like an hour before I commented. Sorry.

I've never gotten a reply like this on the internet in my life and it's such a nice thing to receive! Thanks for that!

I actually appreciated the response because it made me rethink my assumptions. But I also appreciate this note.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#492

Post by abvdasker »

paulliwali wrote: post #139

Let's say a recession is in the future (12-24 months), what should the average person's position be? Transition to even longer-term investments?

Yeah, same boat. I'm a pretty naive investor and through my 401k have about 50% of my net worth invested in index funds with the other 50% in cash. Are there simple strategies to limit exposure other than "sell everything"?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#494

Post by WhompingWindows »

SkyBelow wrote: post #234
tempguy9999 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

1) There's little proof he was rich when he was running for President, he may well have been indebted to foreign powers at the time. The "under audit" story is clearly BS, what was he hiding?

2) His wealth was not created by himself, at any rate. He lied and said he inherited a small loan of a million, when in fact it was at least 2 orders of magnitude more than that. His father was the real smart businessman and his career has largely been failure upon failure.

3) He basically did win the lottery of being born to a wealthy father and squandered it all. How much did he squander is very hard to say when he himself covers up the details.

So yes, he is incompetent with money and business. He is competent with power, intimidation, and getting his way. That may have worked in the small pond of the 2016 election, but that is about the only place the man's been successful.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#495

Post by bduerst »

leereeves wrote: post #458
xiphias2 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He used it as a tool, the companies became bankrupt, he got rich. I imagine he will get rich even if U.S. goes through a bankrupcy.

He started 500 businesses, 6 went bankrupt.

It takes $100 and thirty minutes to start a business so that metric is useless. If anything, that many shell corps is suspect for money laundering, not business prowess.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#496

Post by HillaryBriss »

simplecomplex wrote: post #247
polotics wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so easy to distinguish the drunken master from the drunk. They walk the same.

Nope. Life is not a movie. There are no drunken masters. Being president isn’t a kungfu movie, even though Trump voters probably think it is.

Right now it's a reality TV show. But, one day, a bright shining star will make it into a Kung Fu movie. And I believe! #JackieChan2024

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#497

Post by kickopotomus »

phat_gopher wrote: post #394
kickopotomus wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation? What 515 businesses did he create?

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2175187-trump.html

Ah, now nwalker85's comment makes more sense although it is patently false. A more accurate assessment is that Trump has been associated with 515 business entities. The vast majority of those entities are shell corporations or LLCs meant to (as the name implies) limit liability.

He did not create 515 for-profit businesses.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#498

Post by mattdeboard »

elicash wrote: post #491
mattdeboard wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You were asking a totally reasonable question and I gave a needlessly curt & unhelpful response. Especially considering I heard "yield inversion" and its variations literally like an hour before I commented. Sorry.

I've never gotten a reply like this on the internet in my life and it's such a nice thing to receive! Thanks for that! I actually appreciated the response because it made me rethink my assumptions. But I also appreciate this note.

I'm glad.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#499

Post by gomez9 »

tunesmith wrote: post #417
gomez9 wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yield curve inversion is way bigger than the trade war. Also the trade war directionality favors the USA.

What is the reasoning behind "The trade war directionality favors the USA"?

USA has a huge trade deficit with China. Chinese economy is much more dependent on the USA buying their goods than the other way around. They've already devalued their currency in order to stay competitive to American buyers, so in a sense they are directly paying for the tariffs.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#500

Post by mattdeboard »

scott_s wrote: post #78
mattdeboard wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no. also there is no "popularization." it's just a historical pattern.

Something can both be a historical pattern and popularized as something we pay attention to. There are also historical patterns that many people don't talk about frequently or pay attention to. Aside from that, I'm not sure how you're so confident that there is no observer effect. Markets, particularly in the short term, are influenced by human perception and emotion. It is plausible to me that, in particular, the st…

You're right, it was an incorrect and very bad comment. Thanks for the correction.
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