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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

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Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#491
post #293
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There can be 10 people willing to spend $inf for a loaf of bread and only 5 loaves. Supply of skilled work isn't immediately elastic.

No. No person owns an infinite number of dollars. But I will happily bake you a loaf of bread for $10,000 each. In fact, I’d quit my day job to do that. That shortage wouldn’t last long.

Can you bake a loaf of bread worth $10k?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm always kind of fascinated by posts like this on this site. Could I ask what field you're in that pays 35k/yr, apparently in the US, is in the field of your degree, and yet is somewhat related to Hacker News? Or are you not in tech at all and this site is an outside interest? Or maybe you're just in a rural area? I don't mean this to sound challenging out all, I'm just kind of curious.

I work IT in Springfield, MO. Most lower level positions here have been outsourced or centralized to a tech hub of the country, so to get an "entry level" position requires a four year degree plus a year or two of experience. IT contracting jobs also just pay $10-12/hr here. > Or maybe you're just in a rural area? It's rural compared to the big coastal cities, but is still the third biggest city in my state. IMO, it…

Thanks for the response. I was really just curious, I didn't mean to set off a mini-storm. It's just interesting who reads this site, since the topics are pretty highly directed towards startup and developer culture.

IT support in a rural area is more or less what I was suspecting (yes, Springfield is Country). It's ironic that the tech age was supposed to bring in an era of telecommuting, when in fact it's brought in an era of greatly increased centralization. Small towns needed doctors and lawyers, they don't need software developers or high end tech support.

In theory the increase in cloud services could change that, but I don't really see the trend changing.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#493
post #293
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There can be 10 people willing to spend $inf for a loaf of bread and only 5 loaves. Supply of skilled work isn't immediately elastic.

No. No person owns an infinite number of dollars. But I will happily bake you a loaf of bread for $10,000 each. In fact, I’d quit my day job to do that. That shortage wouldn’t last long.

If there was a shortage of pilots and you "happily" offered to fly me safely to my destination for $100k, I'd happily ask the security personnel to escort you off the plane. Nobody is flying that day, and your naive idealism can't change that.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every white collar job I've held in the last decade had mandatory drug tests.

Really assuming you don't work in a Job requiring security clearance that seems excessive.

I've never had security clearance of any kind. Highlights that all required drug testing were: restaurant national headquarters, towing/insurance national headquarters, theme park, defense contractor for non-secure projects, and a bank.

Though now that I think about it I have technically worked at two companies that didn't drug test: my own, and a small 3-man startup I did some work for.

It's worth mentioning that I live in a red state. I suspect blue states have cultures that are a little more lax on drug testing, though I have no real data to back that up.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#496

>> "Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at all)" Don't kid yourself. Those new hires are at other jobs making more money. I am booked for a roofer in feb 2018 (fingers crossed - friend of a friend). Blue skills are in extremely high demand. And those guys are working extremely hard making really high incomes (400k+). These guys are highly paid and are not…

I don't think roofers are good example, not sure where you live, but last summer I got roofers scheduled in a week (Boston area). By locally known construction company, I got estimate and contract by American owner/sales man - he probably does well, but the actual work was done by Brazilian crew, which I'm guessing was mostly illegal immigrants likely paid less than minimum wage. From my observations with neighbors a…

My step dad was a roofer when I was growing up. He was the one that did the estimates and found the business and he had a crew of immigrants that did most of the work for him. They earned far above minimum wage. They made $15/hr, under the table, in the early 90s when minimum wage was under $5/hr. Even the grunt roofing work is semi-skilled and paying more allowed him to keep the same crew together over multiple years so he didn't have to constantly retrain. Even his supervisor role was backbreaking work that left him exhausted after 12-hour days. His crew would have found other minimum wage grunt work to do if the money wasn't good. Plus, the margins on jobs were so high that it didn't make sense to be chintzy (he'd net around $4k on a week-long job after the cost of labor and materials). But it was seasonal work so he'd only get 10-12 jobs in per year and spent the rest of the year being an artist.

I can't say how many crews are run like his was, but I also don't think it's fair to assume that all those guys are making next to nothing. The roofing season is so short and the money good enough that I'd bet that having someone you trust to move fast while maintaining quality would be worth a significant amount over minimum wage. Having worked with him on my summer breaks in high school, it took me a full season to get to the point where I was even close to keeping up with his regulars. I'd also bet the money being pretty good, not bad, is why you see groups of the same ethnicity working together since they probably recruit and train each other whenever there's a vacancy.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate the drug testing bs. How is that relevant? If the worker is present, is sober, and not hungover what business is it of the employers what the employee does on their own time? The drugs that are readily detectable are mostly the ones that don’t matter too, while the ones that are more concerning (to me anyway) are either not tested for or are not detectable fairly fast. And alcohol is ok to abuse. Why? It would…

Every white collar job I've held in the last decade had mandatory drug tests.

I have never had a drug test, and that includes several jobs working for defense contractors. (The law said they had to have a plan for testing anyone they suspected of drug use. It didn't say they had to suspect anyone.)

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#498
post #293
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There can be 10 people willing to spend $inf for a loaf of bread and only 5 loaves. Supply of skilled work isn't immediately elastic.

No. No person owns an infinite number of dollars. But I will happily bake you a loaf of bread for $10,000 each. In fact, I’d quit my day job to do that. That shortage wouldn’t last long.

Bread is fungible, construction workers (or any kind of employee or contractor) much less so.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#499
post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Relocation isn't an option", well not with that attitude. Your excuse for why doesn't seem very good. In this thread about blue collar jobs, how many blue collar workers are in the US illegally and working their butts off in order to send just about everything they make to their family back across the border? They often have wives, sometimes children, extended family, depending on them. Quite a number of people here…

Telling everyone to just move where the jobs are and live like an immigrant within your own country is why Trump got elected, and will by why similar candidates get elected in the future. Economic growth and development shouldn't be limited to only a handful of cities in the country. It's not good for our workers, society, or culture in general.

Well, if you want, you can live quite better than most immigrants at $90k+, even in the expensive coastal cities, it's just that you're setting yourself up for having to work throughout your 30s and 40s and maybe your 50s. A lot of people are fine with that. But if people took frugality more seriously, they could plan for retirement by their 40s or earlier. Working 3 years out West gives you several years to spend back home with your family without having to work during that time.

Sounds like you want to redistribute the economic gains? Good luck with that, we know where that leads. Economic inequality is fine if people are also raised out of poverty, like over a billion people have been since 1990 while inequality has raised. Inequality can be a good sign. (http://www.paulgraham.com/inequality.html http://www.paulgraham.com/ineq.html)

At the very least, America can't have it both ways, being an economic power house and evenly redistributing the fruits internally. You might have a shot if you require Americans roll back into a farming economy where half the population farms for each other and the other half, but you'll have to kill a lot of people and take and salt a lot of land and forbid a lot of machinery to get it done. I don't think that's why Trump got elected. The voters don't tend to want handouts, they just want certain existing handouts to other parties to go away so they can effectively compete again in certain domains. Dissatisfaction with the economy in their area is a big component, sure, and Trump actually cares about making the country's economy better, and he's already done good things to help some areas out, but neither he nor anyone else will ever make e.g. all the state capitals equally economically viable with similar growth rates. Physics is against them, math is against them, human nature is against them, morality is against them. SV and other tech hubs will pass one day, too, just like the ghost towns you can visit all over the western states albeit probably not so dramatically, but that'll just be because the economic centers have moved elsewhere, not because they've been redistributed. Exploit their opportunities while they're there.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#500
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. No person owns an infinite number of dollars. But I will happily bake you a loaf of bread for $10,000 each. In fact, I’d quit my day job to do that. That shortage wouldn’t last long.

You might also happily weld for $10,000/hr but you aren't a talented welder, and you can't learn in a day.

But certainly somebody would weld for 10k an hour, and therefore the person willing to pay that will have as much welding labor as they need, and everybody else will have to match that price, bamboozle their workers into taking less, or find some way to complete their project with fewer welds.
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