My points of skepticism: 1. Semis . A typical long haul semi gets well under 10MPG. In some cases not much more than half that. They are heavy and need a lot of energy to move. A Tesla Model S weighs 4650 lbs and has a range of a couple of hundred miles. A semi truck can weigh up to 80,000 lbs. That is a lot of weight to get rolling and a lot to pull up a grade. Semis spend a large part of their time driving at highw…
Master Plan, Part Deux
491–500 of 705 posts
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#492Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not really the same thing. Amazon don't turn a profit because they intentionally re-invest they money they would make into areas that they think will make them money in future. (Once or twice they've screwed this up and accidentally ended up making a profit.) Tesla don't turn a profit because they're making and selling cars at prices below their total costs.
Care to provide a source to back up that claim?
They have basically a single source of revenue AFAIK which is selling cars. They sell X amount of cars per year making $Y. They don't turn a profit. Last year they lost close to $1B mostly because of their R&D costs. They need to either sell more cars (assuming that they can make money per additional unit like they say they can) or charge more for the ones they do sell, or both. Fortunately they are expected by investors to follow the Amazon model so they can get away with it for the foreseeable future.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#493Fleets, Mr. Musk. Centrally owned fleets of vehicles, where you can make your sales case based on total cost of system ownership rather than sex appeal.
It's a tall order, but can you set your sights on those "long life vehicles" presently used by the US Postal Service in urban and suburban areas, or maybe similar vehicles in Europe. Those machines return to base daily and usually are unused at least 8 hr/day. Massive buildings with large roofs.
Cop cars. Lots of slow speed cruising combined with a very occasional need for high speed and agility. Return to base every shift. Location awareness.
These sales cycles will be long, and probably a pain in the neck for your major account teams. But you're in it for the long haul.
From the owner of Model S #146761
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#494Somehow these discussions about human driven cars feel like the discussions about smoking or owning a gun to me. The world could be a better place for so many people, but somehow a bunch of other people think it's okay to continue doing them until they die.
> The world could be a better place for so many people, but somehow a bunch of other people think it's okay to continue doing them until they die.
The other day I came across an article in which a school prohibited their students clapping when cheering, instead making the cheer in quiet with a fistpump or something like that.
The stated reason for this was that some of their pupils were noise sensitive and it made them feel bad/anxious/terrified.
Now, regardless of whether this particular story is true like that, it illustrates something interesting.
There is a whole bag of human behavior that has the possibility to affect their environment negatively. I would go so far to say
> Being alive is an interruption to your environment
You can't not be a nuisance. Nor should you strive to be. That doesn't mean you should be as annoying as possible to everyone you meet, but it means to recognize that we live in a society in which people are different, and specifically to your point, have different trade-offs when it comes to acceptable risk and freedom.
That you have different trade-offs doesn't give you a moral high-ground, over people "thinking it's ok until they die". And I'm not totally relativist here, I think there should be limits and that some trade-offs are wrong.
It's just that that goes both ways between recklessly irresponsible and fascist government limiting everything dangerous, and there is a lot of space in between the two.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#495Earlier quoted context omitted.
Reminds me of the old accounting joke. CFO -> CEO We have a major problem, recent price cuts mean that we are now making a loss per unit on our major product lines. CEO -> CFO Don't worry about that, We'll make it up on the volume!
I have this bookmarked just for these types of discussions. It's surprising how often I have used it: http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0135.html
Not to over-analyze a comic, but the business model might not be awful in this case. They sell all potions for 20gp kind of like the original dollar stores. The one particular item is at a loss, but the majority may be at a profit or at least the aggregate based on volume is a profit. Basically they have loss-leaders to get people to use them as their only store.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#496Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's not true. Other automakers existed before Ford; he had automotive competition. In what world is a Jaguar a "medium" end car? The high end Jaguars extend into Maserati territory. If Tesla wants to be better than a Maserati or Jaguar, they need to observe how much nicer the interiors of those cars are. Consumer Reports doesn't care about that above a certain level of basic competence, but a Maserati or Jaguar bu…
> If Tesla wants to be better than a Maserati or Jaguar, they need to observe how much nicer the interiors of those cars are. Indeed. I was shocked when I first hitched a ride in a Model S – the interior is more spartan and cramped than that of a 90s Japanese keicar (an impressive feat, in a sense) apart from the entertainment system, which had an uglier, clunkier UI than what any web developer could have drawn you u…
That's his sales market. Tesla wants fanboy buyers who will be upgrading within five years and that's not a bad thing. They are such a small player that they can do this. I used to lease SUVs on 2-year lease. They had massive incentives and very high residuals because the manufacturers realize they can sell you 5 cars every decade if you are loyal. I did it because the savings were awesome, but I eventually stopped because I got sick of shopping for a new car every two years.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#497Somehow these discussions about human driven cars feel like the discussions about smoking or owning a gun to me. The world could be a better place for so many people, but somehow a bunch of other people think it's okay to continue doing them until they die.
> The world could be a better place for so many people, but somehow a bunch of other people think it's okay to continue doing them until they die. The other day I came across an article in which a school prohibited their students clapping when cheering, instead making the cheer in quiet with a fistpump or something like that. The stated reason for this was that some of their pupils were noise sensitive and it made th…
so true.
I'm a left-wing guy, but the older I get the more I have the feeling, getting my life rid of socalist projects (public healthcare, retirment funds, etc) lets me live a more lefty life, haha.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#498Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't trust the government to manipulate the free market efficiently. It's comprised of hapless morons who don't know what they're doing and whose favor is for sale to the highest bidder. Case in point are the tremendous number of bankrupt alternative energy companies built upon favorable treatment by the government. Market intervention doesn't suddenly become justifiable simply because the outcome of advancing the…
> Case in point are the tremendous number of bankrupt alternative energy companies built upon favorable treatment by the government That's like saying the top VC firms are all inept because most of the startups they fund fail. It has often been the role of our government to make risky bets in order to advance step-changes in our society's progress. Those bets have resulted in such things as spaceflight, modern teleco…
But VCs are gambling with their own money and reputations. The government does not have its own money and has no competition.
Does Tesla price in the health and climate externalities of the lithium cycle and the reset of their raw materials?
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#499Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google's doing a lot better on the whole self driving front. At least in terms of fatalities per mile.
Google has a handful of their engineers driving around in weird-looking minicars. Tesla has thousands of regular consumers driving all over the world in sleek sedans. Let's see which bet pays off better in five years' time.
The weird minicars are not what they've been road testing. The ones they've been road testing for ML look like regular cars.
And they have yet to hit a pedestrian or decapitate a driver with a semi. Be real; Tesla's is basically a smarter cruise control. It can't actually deal with complicated scenarios.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#500"In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport" Where I'm from, we call that trains.
Hyperloop will be what we used to call trains.