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Waymo in Portland

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Re: Waymo in Portland

#481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming an average fare of 2.47$ per to make the math even, that's 6.00$/ride total cost. When a company / government gets the cost per mile to run a fleet of autonomous EV's down to ~60cents/mile or so, which is a plausible enough number, then a lot of those transit rides are going to look real silly from a cost effectiveness POV.

Yes. If the government were able to provide transit more cheaply in the future by using new vehicles then the transit that the government provides would be cheaper than it is today.

And the meaning of the truism you so adoitly picked up on is that at reasonable projections trimet and similar public transit will be uncompetitive in price (and service) relative to self driving EVs. Ergo it is correct to deprioritize their funding.

This of course is in refutation to the various points made up the thread that self driving EVs are not cost competitive and glorified taxis -- not viable public transit for the masses.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#482
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is a very big, very spread out place. I'm not sure which country has trains that take you directly to your front door.

Where I live in the Netherlands the train quite literally stops in front of my door, as in my building that is ~50 meters from the train station where I can take a train every 10 minutes (15 on weekends) to any other city in the country, and even outside the country to Germany or France. I'm even planning a Eurotrip by train this summer with some mates, I'd say the distances here are comparable to get from NL to PL f…

A self-driving car can stop 2 meters outside your house on an arbitrary schedule. That's going to be the competition with trains in the very near future.

Not sure what you mean by the last bit - the US already has that highway system, and the local roads serving the last mile, because that last mile infrastructure already has to exist to get from public transit to your house.

China doesn't have the exact same problem because so much of the country lives in dense wall-to-wall housing, which sucks no matter how you spin it if you like having any kind of space to yourself.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#483
post #276
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is a very big, very spread out place. I'm not sure which country has trains that take you directly to your front door.

It is indeed a very big place. But this fellah seemed to have that part figured out: Bike to the train station, and take the bike on the train. That part seems straight-forward. The train stations were near-enough to where they wanted to start, and near-enough to where they wanted to be. The problems they lament seem to revolve chiefly around the specifics of taking the bike on a train, and the limited schedule of th…

Near-enough is not strong competition with as-close-as-possible.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#484
post #471
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorta, kinda. Suppose in some hypothetical future, we can take the (expensive) train to our destination in Somewhere, USA, and it drops us off. So there we are, at a train station in Somewhere, USA. What happens next? A bus? Light rail? Uber/Lyft/taxi? A friend who has time to show up? Renting a car? What's our next move? (Lots of destinations don't have much for local public transport.) For contrast: When I drive my…

Ah yes. The entirely hypothetical situation that doesn't exist anywhere in the world

It can exist. Just add trains.

The lack of other public transportation is already real in much of the US.

(If we're not adding trains, then there's really nothing here to talk about in this context -- is there?)

Re: Waymo in Portland

#485
post #471
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorta, kinda. Suppose in some hypothetical future, we can take the (expensive) train to our destination in Somewhere, USA, and it drops us off. So there we are, at a train station in Somewhere, USA. What happens next? A bus? Light rail? Uber/Lyft/taxi? A friend who has time to show up? Renting a car? What's our next move? (Lots of destinations don't have much for local public transport.) For contrast: When I drive my…

Ah yes. The entirely hypothetical situation that doesn't exist anywhere in the world

Those places are comfortable with subpar transit conditions. There's nothing actually individually desirable about taking the train compared to having a private car take you directly between points A and B, people just seem to shy away from admitting that in favor of pro-social signaling in support of public transit.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#486
post #483
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is indeed a very big place. But this fellah seemed to have that part figured out: Bike to the train station, and take the bike on the train. That part seems straight-forward. The train stations were near-enough to where they wanted to start, and near-enough to where they wanted to be. The problems they lament seem to revolve chiefly around the specifics of taking the bike on a train, and the limited schedule of th…

Near-enough is not strong competition with as-close-as-possible.

[flagged]

Re: Waymo in Portland

#487
post #480
post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US East Cost. The area is about the size of Japan with similar popilation. And there are only a few disjointed efforts.

On the East Coast they have trains that go to the front door of your house?

Didn't know that Japanese trains (or European trains) go to the door of your house

Re: Waymo in Portland

#488
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Brightline in Florida exists, as does the Acela on the East Coast. These things are entirely possible in the US, we just don't seem to want them enough.

Sorta, kinda. Suppose in some hypothetical future, we can take the (expensive) train to our destination in Somewhere, USA, and it drops us off. So there we are, at a train station in Somewhere, USA. What happens next? A bus? Light rail? Uber/Lyft/taxi? A friend who has time to show up? Renting a car? What's our next move? (Lots of destinations don't have much for local public transport.) For contrast: When I drive my…

> What happens next? A bus? Light rail? Uber/Lyft/taxi? A friend who has time to show up? Renting a car? What's our next move? (Lots of destinations don't have much for local public transport.)

You're saying all this as if this exact scenario isn't solved in plenty of places across the world? You take the bus or tram or metro or cycle or just walk if it's close enough. If the city is actually built with public transport in mind, not just a single bus line that runs every 2 hours bolted on as an afterthought, those options can be easier and faster than finding a parking spot, unless you feel entitled to park your vehicle anywhere you please to the detriment of everyone who isn't you.

Where I live in the Netherlands it's faster to bike most places than driving, because we don't solely cater to drivers and don't devote half the city to letting people store their cars. Even up North in the villages you can still get around by bike, since cycling lanes are dead cheap to build and maintain and can go down in the middle of a swamp if you needed to.

> When I drive myself to Somewhere, I've still got my car to use after I get there.

Sure, and when I cycle to Somewhere, I've still got my bike. Same logic, except I can lock it to a post and forget about it rather than needing to find a dedicated slab of real estate specifically reserved for my vehicle's existence. And if I took the train, I can rent a bike when I get there, which is a thing that exists in basically every city that actually invested in making it work.

> I can go anywhere I want to go, at any time I choose

That only holds true because decades of car-centric design have made it so. In the Netherlands you couldn't just go anywhere you wanted by car, because there are plenty of streets and whole areas where cars flat out aren't allowed, because we actually prioritize the people who have to live with those infrastructural choices over random passersby who don't want to be "inconvenienced" by having to walk 5 minutes or share the road with someone who isn't also in a car.

If the US bothered to build out the infrastructure, you could go anywhere you wanted to go via public transport as well.

What happens in your scenario if you can't find parking anywhere near your destination and the only option is lugging your bags along roads that weren't built for pedestrians? I know I've been in similar situations in the past where I had to drive around for fucking ages trying to find a single spot, I definitely would've preferred walking than that whole circus.

> I might have been better-rested if I took the hypothetical train, but getting dropped off at a train station isn't a very complete solution.

Right, in a country that gutted its public transit and zoned everything to be car-dependent, a train station by itself isn't a complete solution. That's a policy failure, not an argument against trains.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#489
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorta, kinda. Suppose in some hypothetical future, we can take the (expensive) train to our destination in Somewhere, USA, and it drops us off. So there we are, at a train station in Somewhere, USA. What happens next? A bus? Light rail? Uber/Lyft/taxi? A friend who has time to show up? Renting a car? What's our next move? (Lots of destinations don't have much for local public transport.) For contrast: When I drive my…

> What happens next? A bus? Light rail? Uber/Lyft/taxi? A friend who has time to show up? Renting a car? What's our next move? (Lots of destinations don't have much for local public transport.) You're saying all this as if this exact scenario isn't solved in plenty of places across the world? You take the bus or tram or metro or cycle or just walk if it's close enough. If the city is actually built with public transp…

> If the US bothered to build out the infrastructure, you could go anywhere you wanted to go via public transport as well.

Public transit != mass transit. There's no reason that self-driving vehicle fleets can't be municipally subsidized and provide a dramatically better private experience than any mass transit anywhere in the world, and we already have the infrastructure for it.

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