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The RAM shortage could last years

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Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#481

Post by tiberious726 »

torginus wrote: post #42
stuxnet79 wrote: post #11

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

The Radeon VII came out in 2019 as a $700 consumer GPU with an 1TB/s HBM2 memory subsystem which is more than any consumer GPU you can get today, including the high-end ones afaik. At that point in time, there was a whole lineup of AMD GPUs with HBM going down into the midrange. If they could make this stuff and sell it to regular people a decade ago for very palatable prices, why do they come up with the idea that t…

The fury X was a beast for a consumer card, sadly limited by having a mere 4gb of (hbm) VRAM, and a non-refillable AIO. But back when games could fit in 4gb, it was incredible.

I'd absolutely buy another hbm consumer GPU if it had at least 8gb (and if I got the vibe/hope AMD will actually support for a couple years...)

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#482

Post by kennywinker »

fsckboy wrote: post #479
kennywinker wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Allowed? We live in a neoliberal world where corporate monopolies / oligopolies aren’t even remotely regulated. If you try to do even the gentlest regulation of companies people scream about communism and totalitarianism. Unless the regulation serves the monopolies by making it harder to enter the market. It started with raegan, and even parties on the “left” in the west believe in it with very few exceptions.

reagan was not remotely neoliberal (though he was a disillusioned former socialist and union leader) but he did knock liberalism off its perch. it was clinton who delivered the democrats to wall street and vice versa

Reagan is canonically neoliberal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics (it’s literally the first descriptive word used when defining his economic policies).

Maybe it’s time for a refresher on what neoliberal means? It’s not simply “new liberalism”. Reaganomics was the start of neoliberalism in the US, tho of course it shifted and developed its character further over time into the monster that drives 99% of our problems today

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#483

Post by aeonfox »

EraYaN wrote: post #431
aeonfox wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> really bad at native Yikes. I spent 15 years developing native on both mobile and desktop. If you think that native has the same design flexibility as HTML/CSS, you're objectively wrong. By design, each operation system limits you to their particular design language, and styling of components is hidden by the API making forward-compatible customisation impossible. There's no escaping that. And if you acknowledge th…

The real disconnect is that the user doesn't really care all that much. It's mostly the designers who care. And Qt for example but also WPF let you style components almost to unrecognizable and unusable results. So if everyone will need to make do with 8GB for the foreseeable future, designers might just be told "No.", which admittedly will be a big shock to some of them. Or maybe someone finally figures out how to d…

> the user doesn't really care all that much

They do. But not in the way that you think.

I recently switched from Spotify (well known Electron-based app) to Apple Music (well known native app). The move was mostly an ethical one, but I must say, the UI functionality and app features are basically poverty in comparison. One tiny example, navigating from playlist entry to artist requires multiple interactions. This is just one of many frustrations I've had with the app. But hey, it has beautiful liquid glass effects!

In short: iteration time matters. Times from design to implementation, to internal review, to real user feedback, and back to design from each phase should be as fast as possible. You don't get the same velocity as you do in native. Add to that you have to design and implement in quadruplicate, iOS design for iOS, Android for Android, MacOS for Mac, Windows design for windows. All that is why people use Electon.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#484

Post by throwaway2037 »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #461
neutronicus wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, just pointing to some news coverage in which grid operators allege that the grid is stressed in the DMV area.

The grid is constantly "stressed" everywhere, because they're designed to be. You don't build five times as much capacity as you need at huge expense for no reason, you design the thing to have only slightly more capacity than you expect to need. If demand increases you have to build more generation and power lines etc. This is not a problem but for NIMBYs, it's just the logical consequence. If the local population i…

Chef's kiss for this reply. It is perfect. I like how you reframed the argument around grocery stores. It would be ridiculous to write a newspaper article about "grocery stores are stressed" and there is a newly proposed "controversial grocery store". NIMBYists will perform all kinds of mental gymnastics to defend their positions.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#485

Post by FooBarWidget »

ahartmetz wrote: post #453
FooBarWidget wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think this window is short? We've been dealing with this for years and years, and to me it seems more like incumbent manufacturers are too comfortable milking cash cows.

This window of opportunity (very high RAM prices) opened about half a year ago.

That's only for normal RAM. I'm talking about broader aspect: HBM shortage and high prices have been around for longer, and Chinese manufacturers are also climbing up and expanding there.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#486

Post by nirui »

rimliu wrote: post #354
nirui wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This demand for RAM is built on a foundation of sand Not exactly. LLMs are already quite useful today if you use them as a tool, so they are there to stay. The remaining problem is scalability, a.k.a. how to make LLMs cheap to use. But scalability is not really a requirement when you look the bigger picture. If smaller software company/projects can't afford to use AI, the bigger ones might just. Eventually they wil…

Would they be considered as useful if users are required to pay non-subsidized price though.

They are.

The advanced workflows such as programming are not the only use cases for LLMs. There are much simpler work such as answering simple questions or arrange simple tasks. Both will improve productivity. And more advanced model should improve productivity even more.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#487

Post by dpoloncsak »

stuxnet79 wrote: post #11

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

I'm under the impression OAI wrote Letters of Intent, and are not actually on the hook for the RAM they requested.

The others...they did not. Memory makers won't be holding the bag because Apple/Google/Samsung are contractually obligated to purchase, after the panic OAI caused.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#488

Post by ajam1507 »

gtech1 wrote: post #468
ajam1507 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We don't even know what human consciousness is. I think Douglas Hofstadter satisfactorily answered this question. > We can't even answer if we have free will or not. Sure we can, it's just that most people don't like the answer.

> I think Douglas Hofstadter satisfactorily answered this question. He didn't prove anything. It's a theory, just like many others: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness-higher/ > Sure we can, it's just that most people don't like the answer. Again, not proven

There are also plenty of people who think you can't prove whether the Christian God exists. I don't take those people seriously.

Don't mistake continued debate amongst "experts" as being a signal that something is unsettled.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#489

Post by ElevenLathe »

subarctic wrote: post #189
michaelt wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am surprised we consider TSMC like a natural resource: isn't it really a combination of know-how and build-out according to that know-how? Have you seen how many states and countries look enviously at Silicon Valley’s tech companies, China’s manufacturing dominance, or London’s financial sector and try to replicate them? Turns out it’s way harder than you’d expect. Hell, Intel can’t match TSMC despite decades of…

With you on the first two, but I haven't heard of London's financial sector being a big deal, what's going on there?

London has been the capitol of capital since before capitalism.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#490

Post by danaris »

tomaskafka wrote: post #414
RajT88 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is 10 years into what you describe, no?

Yes. And then taking down TSMC will be a nuclear bomb that wipes everyone else’s economy at once.

They don't even need to nuke TSMC to wipe everyone else out.

They just need to blockade Taiwan.

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