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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

481–490 of 631 posts

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#481
post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to see lists of "Things Elon Musk will never be able to make money from, but did" and "Things Elon Musk will never be able to make money from, and didn't".

Cybertrucks. Electric semis. Full self driving. Battery city. I'll leave up to the reader to put them on the appropriate list.

Technically, the question was about Elon personally, eh (not Tesla).

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if Tesla is overvalued, surely 1 example is insufficient to substantiate that mass stupidity is being rewarded. I spent many words explaining that the list of businesses at the top are basically at the top of their game, worldwide.

you wrote "can you provide an example" and I provided an example. If you wanted to say "I think the market mostly does this, with large caveats" then we're in agreement.

Sorry, I forgot how I phrased that. Although I disagree that Tesla’s sustained market cap over many years is what it is due to the market rewarding mass stupidity.

The company has recently successfully executed at making and selling a new type of product, so it is not unreasonable for investors to bet on further advancements.

Or maybe they think the leader is just sufficiently willing to be or adept at being corrupt that they will also benefit from his shenanigans.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a fake quote. It's an extreme distillation of the apparent core of your argument. It's how it appears to me. It's related to what you wrote in that someone read it and came away with that conclusion.

cool, and adding the part how "they don't literally kill anyone through an accident" invalidates your argument. that's a fake quote. you can respond with actual substantiative points, but don't make stuff up.

I'm taking the position that spaceflight is inherently dangerous. I'm not sure how you can see that as made up. Further any rational person has to recognize that a commercial mission that results in death is going to be a unique challenge that will certainly slow down or even halt the progress of the company involved.

None of this is "fake." You simply neglected to include it. I'm expanding the scope to include a realistic scenario since realism seems so easily lost in these conversations.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#484

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

Hey are absolutely not replacing “legacy” isps and certainly not mobile. Even if they had perfect coverage, sat signals are way too sensitive to obstructions.

To be fair, in Tokyo I see a lot of ISPs pushing 5g routers. Many buildings have fiberoptics pulled to the basement and then use VDSL for the last meters, and I bet they'd rather move everyone over to 5G than have to start actually installing proper fiberoptic internet. In Norway, 5g has been advertised as something groundbreaking and radical. We have been told "now surgery is finally possible with mobile networks" (hospitals don't have fiberoptics??) and similar. Very Apple 2010s "The ipad can now be used by (good person) to do (good thing)"-like. But nobody cares, real users don't see any benefit.

A normal person will probably never notice the difference between 4g and 5g because of what they use their phone for, and giving every household a proper fiberoptic line is probably a much better quality of life improvement. But ISPs dont want that future. They want everyone to be connected to these neighborhood hubs that don't require last-100m-cables and expensive construction. The same can probably be said for Starlink. It's "Good enough", and that's good enough to get sales. They don't care about the quality of the product they deliver, or if fiberoptics are superior. They care about sales.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#485
post #117

How will they make money? From governments? With Elon's beliefs, few will be able to afford the vacation trips to space, except a few and they can already do this if they wanted, but haven't in droves. If anything this just proves that the Overview Effect (traveling to space changes you) is just BS, Bezos and the others never changed.

Providing Internet to the entire world that's faster than fiber.

Providing space launch capability that's 1/10th what NASA charges.

Providing quite good AI at 100 tokens/sec.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not meant to replace terrestrial networks, it's a space-based alternative that serves areas carriers have no financial incentive to cover. Terrestrial cellular towers cost between $150k to $500k per tower, and are not economically feasible in less populated areas. There are also many dead-zones in mountainous regions, since cell signals are blocked by mountains. Starlink Mobile supplements this, it's simply chea…

> it's a space-based alternative that serves areas carriers have no financial incentive to cover In a nutshell: they're serving a market that has less money to spend using more expensive tech than the current industry leaders. Maybe I'm wrong but it doesn't scream "massive profit".

It’s already profitable

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No related to this conversation, but I just started reading some books on finance and I actually know what most of those terms mean now! Lol

I have a bachelor from a school of business and I have no clue. What did you read that worked?

The Art of Deception.

You do not need to study anything else. You can even be very successful in every stages of your life with it.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#489
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The jury is still out on Starship. And also a bold claim to say that SpaceX by itself has reduced the cost of a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10. Did it play an important role in that reduction? Sure...

Who else “played a role” in Falcon 9 reducing the cost of mass to orbit, exactly ? I guess some public money went their way ? Also which jury is still out on starship ? I haven’t read any serious criticism that suggests there are insurmountable technical obstacles to it working. Timelines and the exact final cost-to-orbit are still debatable I guess ? The achievements of the program so far and the infrastructure curr…

Yes the jury is out on this:

> Also which jury is still out on starship ? I haven’t read any serious criticism that suggests there are insurmountable technical obstacles to it working. Timelines and the exact final cost-to-orbit are still debatable I guess ?

There are also other space companies outside of SpaceX who have innovated and reduced the cost of mass to orbit.

Just trying to add the perspective that while yes, SpaceX is impressive, there are also other companies and this hero-like worship of SpaceX (or any other company/person) is not great.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#490
post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a world where it's trendy to hate on Musk, it's good there are people that provide some balance.

Doesn't this idea presume that the hate that Elon gets isn't totally justified?

So nobody is entitled to a thought that is against the hive mind here?

I think it's worse than what you're saying. It's almost impossible to have an objective discussion on any technology he touches in a online forum without someone mentioning his behaviors. Godwins law.

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