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How will OpenAI compete?

ben-evans.com

481–490 of 693 posts

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#481
post #468
post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t you think that’s because Google was objectively a head above everyone other search engine for a long time?

It’s not anymore (actually google is awful now) and people are still using it

As Chrome has about 75% market share across all platforms - probably 90% of those use the google default.

As far as I'm aware OpenAI doesn't control any defaults for which AIChat service to use.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#482
post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Subtle things like the guy in CSI Miami talking about how good Subway is for 5 minutes? Of course stuff in the world influences me, I am still a human. Still I have never clicked an ad and bought something. I simply don't get who would. Same as with the super market placing candy and stuff next to the cashier to get people to buy more, I have never been swayed by those because when I go to the store I am always on a…

You seem to have defined ads as "obvious calls to action that end up in me buying it for sure". That's a pretty narrow view of marketing, but it does feel like you are aware that there may be other forms as you provide examples across the thread. It comes off as some form of elitism, where you deem the simplest ads as ineffective on yourself (but work on "average people") - but then go on to mention things like disco…

Is discount really an ad? Like if I had already made a decision to buy a thing and now I paid less for it was it really a working ad?

Also sponsored content is way different than having ads on a website or in an app or what kind of ads do you think GPT will have?

And you are definitely judging me. When people say “ads” that is pretty specific thing that they mean. If you broaden it to mean everything then I can’t argue as there is no point.

There is two options either ads (as in those things every one blocks with uBlock Origin) do not work on people OR they do work on most people but not on me, if anything they are a deterrent from buying that product.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#483
post #381

For me Codex beats Claude.

Same here. I moved from claude code to codex. But switching costs are so low that I will just bounce between them depending on which one is better at the time. I think for developers at least, openai don't have stickiness.

I use Codex for stuff that touches the UI. Codex is better and faster at the backend stuff. And I usually instruct it on where to copy UI elements from.

A basic Claude Code plus a basic Codex subscription is just 40 euros and it beats a single 200 euro Pro subscription. For me at least.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#484
post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Hotmail offer email redirection at that time? I can't remember whether that sort of thing that would make it easy to switch away was offered.

I don't remember that detail, but I do remember most people not treating their inbox as an archive at the time. So there was less friction to switch to gmail, and more reason to do so due to the "real time" ticking storage amount of gmail, which then became an archive (again for most people).

> I do remember most people not treating their inbox as an archive at the time.

Indeed. For me, the step was gmail. With its humongous 1GB of storage, that was the moment when I stopped having to delete stuff to save space. It’s funny because a lot of people I know who were already older at that point kept the habit of deleting emails, even today.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really depends what the ads are. If they are popups or other intrusive ads the product will just die. If they are subtle hints in the text how are you going to track it. I don't know, I just don't believe in ads, but then again I am dirty commie so who am I to tell you not to

That’s not the point. The point is that brands build awareness through ads that don’t require clicking and this ha effected you whether you want to admit it or not

And my point is that I don’t care. I don’t watch ads, I don’t buy things because of ads.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you tried actually holding a conversation with it? I'm really puzzled in which world Gemini/Claude is better than ChatGPT for day-to-day tasks/conversations. Claude can't even search products on Amazon, Jesus.

Neither can ChatGPT or at least not accurately. I have asked it to search me stuff from amazon.de but I never get amazon links

It works great on bol.com and Amazon.nl for me.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#488
post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not anymore (actually google is awful now) and people are still using it

As Chrome has about 75% market share across all platforms - probably 90% of those use the google default. As far as I'm aware OpenAI doesn't control any defaults for which AIChat service to use.

Copilot?

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#489

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

I think you're right about stickyness up to a point. Cultural defaults seem unchangeable but then suddenly everyone knows, that's everyone knows, that OpenAI is passé. OpenAI has a real chance to blow their lead, ending up in a hellish no-man's land by trying to please everyone: Not cool enough for normies, not safe enough for business, not radical enough for techies. Pick a lane or perish. Not owning their own infra…

I guess it depends on what you mean by golden goose. MySpace sold for an insane amount of money at the time and it was basically one guy, “Tom”.
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