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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

481–490 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#481

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

The Fed and largely US policy has absolutely no effect on the real reserve currency: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#482
It's a small relief to have emerging markets holding dollars. Hopefully their economies will continue to grow and that could be a long term benefit to offset the slow de-dollarization across the rest of the world. It would be in US interest to invest into those emerging markets.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not saying you're stupid or misinformed, I'm saying you're missing the point. Understanding what Trump wants doesn't require you to understand geopolitics, it requires you know clinical psychiatry.

Trump doesn't want this. He didn't come up with the idea. Trump was told and encouraged to want this by the little birdies at the DoD.

What do you expect (e.g.) Norway to do except disentangle, when their PM sends this text and gets back this response? And note that Finland's president (Alex there) has been one of the big proponents of continuing to engage with Trump. So, honest question, what should Finland, Norway, etc, do?

https://archive.ph/rjEtm

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#485
post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rejoining is seen as politically too risky in the short term. As you observe, the UK would not get back its privileged position, there are probably some bargains to be struck but a track to the Euro currency is almost certainly mandatory and that'd be unpopular because people really like our banknotes for some reason and the Euro deliberately just looks like play money, the illustrations deliberately don't show real…

> Rejoining is seen as politically too risky in the short term. As you observe, the UK would not get back its privileged position, Just curious, what privileges did it have? I can think of keeping it currency only.

Opt outs for Schengen, the Euro, all police and justice policies, and the charter of fundamental rights

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#487

Is the US dollar losing its dominance? The answer is both A) yes and B) it doesn't matter. Yes, US dollar is losing a bit of power and influence. This is likely to continue. Making inferences about the US global dominance based on this fact is misguided. US global dominance is as strong as ever and, if anything, getting stronger. US has very successfully managed to move the game a level above currency, to direct gove…

> direct governance via financial [means]

This is going to disappear if USD is no longer the dominant currency.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#488
Blackrock released a document you can download that outlines their 2026 outlook. A key point there was: "We go underweight long-term US Treasuries." A sign of bearishness on USD due to fiscal policy.

https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-inves...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is part of the same reason many people don't use Bitcoin- you can't actually do much with it because retailers don't accept it. But China is definitely thinking about how to fix that problem, and soon they will make it possible to pay directly in CNY in other countries. Once you can buy things with it, the CNY is attractive from a practical perspective. A lot of your stuff is already manufactured in China, once/…

Retailers don't accept crypto not because of the technology so much as the fact it is a capital gains event every time you transfer crypto, which means both the buyer and seller are now forced to keep a log of their gains/losses against the dollar everytime they buy a pack of gum. Obviously that's extremely impractical and at best you're hiring a 3rd party to streamline that for you. It's a clusterfuck at tax time (e…

You do not need to report a $0 capital gain when using stablecoins. Sure crypto can seem like the wild West with CPAs having different opinions on what little official guidance is out there but that one is simply absurd.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#490

Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?

A weak dollar is good for manufacturing and a strong dollar is bad for it. China tightly controls to the Yuan to purposely keep it's value low to benefit it's manufacturing. The current US administration wants to something similar for the US to boost manufacturing.

I think that's foolish and backwards thinking. The US doesn't really need more manufacturing; it had relatively low unemployment, a healthy economy, etc. The US is a service country. Apple is one of the richest companies in the world and does none of it's manufacturing in the US. Why wouldn't people invest in Apple?

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