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2025: The Year in LLMs

simonwillison.net

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Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has! CLs/engineer increased by 10% this year. LLMs from late 2024 were nearly worthless as coding agents, so given they have quadrupled in capability since then (exponential growth, btw), it's not surprising to see a modestly positive impact on SWE work. Also, I'm noticing you're not explaining yourself :)

Hey, I'm not the OG commentator, why do I have to explain myself! :) When Fernando Alonso (best rookie btw) goes from 0-60 in 2.4 seconds in his Aston Martin, is it reasonable to assume he will near the speed of light in 20 seconds?

I'm noticing you're not responding to my claim that producivity has been impacted

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do provide some data for this "obvious value of coding agents". Because right now the only thing obvious is the increase in vulnerabilities, people claiming they are 10x more productive but aren't shipping anything, and some AI hype bloggers that fail to provide any quantitative proof.

Sure: at my MAANG company, where I watch the data closely on adoption of CC and other internal coding agent tools, most (significant) LOC are written by agents, and most employees have adopted coding agents as WAU, and the adoption rate is positively correlated with seniority. Like a lot of things LLM related (Simon Willison's pelican test, researchers + product leaders implementing AI features) I also heavily "vibe"…

Anecdotes don’t prove anything, ones without any metrics, and especially at MAANG where AI use is strongly incentivized.

Evidence is peer reviewed research, or at least something with metrics. Like the METR study that shows that experienced engineers often got slower on real tasks with AI tools, even though they thought they were faster.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over half of HN still thinks it’s a stochastic parrot and that it’s just a glorified google search. The change hit us so fast a huge number of people don’t understand how capable it is yet. Also it certainly doesn’t help that it still hallucinates. One mistake and it’s enough to set someone against LLMs. You really need to push through that hallucinations are just the weak part of the process to see the value.

The problem I see, over and over, is that people pose poorly-formed questions to the free ChatGPT and Google models, laugh at the resulting half-baked answers that are often full of errors and hallucinations, and draw conclusions about the technology as a whole. Either that, or they tried it "last year" or "a while back" and have no concept of how far things have gone in the meantime. It's like they wandered into a m…

No, frankly it's the difference between actual engineers and hobbyists/amateurs/non-SWEs.

SWEs are trained to discard surface-level observations and be adversarial. You can't just look at the happy path, how does the system behave for edge cases? Where does it break down and how? What are the failure modes?

The actual analogy to a machine shop would be to look at whether the machines were adequate for their use case, the building had enough reliable power to run and if there were any safety issues.

It's easy to Clever Hans yourself and get snowed by what looks like sophisticated effort or flat out bullshit. I had to gently tell a junior engineer that just because the marketing claims something will work a certain way, that doesn't mean it will.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem I see, over and over, is that people pose poorly-formed questions to the free ChatGPT and Google models, laugh at the resulting half-baked answers that are often full of errors and hallucinations, and draw conclusions about the technology as a whole. Either that, or they tried it "last year" or "a while back" and have no concept of how far things have gone in the meantime. It's like they wandered into a m…

No, frankly it's the difference between actual engineers and hobbyists/amateurs/non-SWEs. SWEs are trained to discard surface-level observations and be adversarial. You can't just look at the happy path, how does the system behave for edge cases? Where does it break down and how? What are the failure modes? The actual analogy to a machine shop would be to look at whether the machines were adequate for their use case,…

You sound pretty certain. There's often good money to be made in taking the contrarian view, where you have insights that the so-called "smart money" lacks. What are some good investments to make in the extreme-bear case, in which we're all just Clever Hans-ing ourselves as you put it? Do you have skin in the game?

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#485
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with X is that so many people who have no verifiable expertise are super loud in shouting "$INDUSTRY is cooked!!" every time a new model releases. It's exhausting and untrue. The kind of video generation we see might nail realism but if you want to use it to create something meaningful which involves solving a ton of problems and making difficult choices in order to express an idea, you run into the walls…

I’d put more faith in HN’s proclamations if it hadn’t widely been wrong about AI in 2023, 2024, and now 2025. Watching the tone shift here has been fascinating. As the saying goes, the only thing moving faster than AI advances right now is the speed at which HN haters move the goalposts…

Mmm. People who make AI their entire personality and brag that other people are too stupid to see what they see and soon they'll have to see the genius they're denying...does not make me think "oh, wow, what have I missed in AI".

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#486
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with X is that so many people who have no verifiable expertise are super loud in shouting "$INDUSTRY is cooked!!" every time a new model releases. It's exhausting and untrue. The kind of video generation we see might nail realism but if you want to use it to create something meaningful which involves solving a ton of problems and making difficult choices in order to express an idea, you run into the walls…

I’d put more faith in HN’s proclamations if it hadn’t widely been wrong about AI in 2023, 2024, and now 2025. Watching the tone shift here has been fascinating. As the saying goes, the only thing moving faster than AI advances right now is the speed at which HN haters move the goalposts…

AI has risen the barrier to all but the top and is threatening many peoples' livelihood. It has significantly increase the cost of computer hardware and is projected to increase the cost of electricity. I can definitely see why there is a tone shift! I'm still rooting for AI in general. Would love to see the end of a lot of diseases. I don't think we humans can cure all disease on our own in any of our lifetimes. Of course there all sorts of dystopian consequences that may derive from AI fully comprehending biology. I'm going to continue being naive and hope for the best!

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#487
post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Usage plunges on the weekends and during the summer, suggesting that a significant portion of users are students using ChatGPT for free or at heavily subsidized rates to do homework (i.e., extremely basic work that is extraordinarily well-represented in the training data). That usage will almost certainly never be monetizable, and it suggests nothing about the trajectory of the technology’s capability or popularity.…

The summer slump was a thing in 2023 but apparently didn't repeat in 2024: https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ai-news/chatgpt-bea... The weekend slumps could equally suggest people are using it at work.

Interesting, thank you for that. I’d be curious to see the data for 2025. I was basing my take off Google trends data - the kind of person who goes to ChatGPT by googling “chatGPT” seems to be using it less in the summer.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#488

Thank you. Enjoyed this read. AI slop videos will no doubt get longer and "more realistic" in 2026. I really hope social media companies plaster a prominent banner over them which screams, "Likely/Made by AI" and give us the option to automatically mute these videos from our timeline. That would be the responsible thing to do. But I can't see Alphabet doing that on YT, xAI doing that on X or Meta doing that on FB/Ins…

For image generation, it's already too realistic with Z-Image + Custom LoRas + SeedVR2 upscaling.

I do think for the solution of say non-consensual pornography the only solution is incredible violence against people making it.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can and we have definitive proof. When we tune LLM models with reinforcement learning the models end up hallucinating less and becoming more reliable. Basically in a nut shell we reward the model when telling the truth and punish it when it’s not. So think of it like this, to create the model we use terabytes of data. Then we do RL which is probably less than one percent of additional data involved in the initia…

> The answer is obvious. It ALREADY knew the truth. There’s no other logical way to explain this. I can think of several offhand. 1. The effect was never real, you've just convinced yourself it is because you want it to be, ie you Clever Hans'd yourself. 2. The effect is an artifact of how you measure "truth" and disappears outside that context ("It can be wildly off for certain things") 3. The effect was completely…

You asked for something concrete, so I’ll anchor every claim to either documented results or directly observable training mechanics.

First, the claim that RLHF materially reduces hallucinations and increases factual accuracy is not anecdotal. It shows up quantitatively in benchmarks designed to measure this exact thing, such as TruthfulQA, Natural Questions, and fact verification datasets like FEVER. Base models and RL-tuned models share the same architecture and almost identical weights, yet the RL-tuned versions score substantially higher. These benchmarks are external to the reward model and can be run independently.

Second, the reinforcement signal itself does not contain factual information. This is a property of how RLHF works. Human raters provide preference comparisons or scores, and the reward model outputs a single scalar. There are no facts, explanations, or world models being injected. From an information perspective, this signal has extremely low bandwidth compared to pretraining.

Third, the scale difference is documented by every group that has published training details. Pretraining consumes trillions of tokens. RLHF uses on the order of tens or hundreds of thousands of human judgments. Even generous estimates put it well under one percent of the total training signal. This is not controversial.

Fourth, the improvement generalizes beyond the reward distribution. RL-tuned models perform better on prompts, domains, and benchmarks that were not part of the preference data and are evaluated automatically rather than by humans. If this were a Clever Hans effect or evaluator bias, performance would collapse when the reward model is not in the loop. It does not.

Fifth, the gains are not confined to a single definition of “truth.” They appear simultaneously in question answering accuracy, contradiction detection, multi-step reasoning, tool use success, and agent task completion rates. These are different evaluation mechanisms. The only common factor is that the model must internally distinguish correct from incorrect world states.

Finally, reinforcement learning cannot plausibly inject new factual structure at scale. This follows from gradient dynamics. RLHF biases which internal activations are favored, it does not have the capacity to encode millions of correlated facts about the world when the signal itself contains none of that information. This is why the literature consistently frames RLHF as behavior shaping or alignment, not knowledge acquisition.

Given those facts, the conclusion is not rhetorical. If a tiny, low-bandwidth, non-factual signal produces large, general improvements in factual reliability, then the information enabling those improvements must already exist in the pretrained model. Reinforcement learning is selecting among latent representations, not creating them.

You can object to calling this “knowing the truth,” but that’s a semantic move, not a substantive one. A system that internally represents distinctions that reliably track true versus false statements across domains, and can be biased to express those distinctions more consistently, functionally encodes truth.

Your three alternatives don’t survive contact with this. Clever Hans fails because the effect generalizes. Measurement artifact fails because multiple independent metrics move together. Fraud fails because these results are reproduced across competing labs, companies, and open-source implementations.

If you think this is still wrong, the next step isn’t skepticism in the abstract. It’s to name a concrete alternative mechanism that is compatible with the documented training process and observed generalization. Without that, the position you’re defending isn’t cautious, it’s incoherent.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand why Hacker News is so dismissive about the coming of LLMs I find LLMs incredibly useful, but if you were following along the last few years the promise was for “exponential progress” with a teaser world destroying super intelligence. We objectively are not on that path. There is no “coming of LLMs”. We might get some incremental improvement, but we’re very clearly seeing sigmoid progress. I can’t…

I’ve been reading this comment multiple times a week for the last couple years. Constant assertions that we’re starting to hit limits, plateau, etc. But a cursory glance at where we are today vs a year ago, let alone two years ago, makes it wildly obvious that this is bullshit. The pace of improvement of both models and tooling has been breathtaking. I could give a shit whether you think it’s “exponential”, people li…

People keep saying stuff like this. That the improvements are so obvious and breathtaking and astronomical and then I go check out the frontier LLMs again and they're maybe a tiny bit better than they were last year but I can't actually be sure bcuz it's hard to tell.

sometimes it seems like people are just living in another timeline.

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