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Is it a bubble?

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#481

Post by simianwords »

9rx wrote: post #478
simianwords wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your definition of bubble then? If not by market cap?

Why read comments in isolation? We already went over this: - Rapid price appreciation - Speculation - A disconnect from fundamentals - Widespread media attention - An eventual correction If market cap, how do you explain housing bubbles? Market cap is not applicable to housing.

of course market cap of housing went down! individual houses fell down in price.

that didn't happen for tech stocks. you are making your own definitions of bubble - the sufficient thing to happen is for the market cap to go down precipetously which it didnt.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#482

Post by lm28469 »

9rx wrote: post #471
lm28469 wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can test that yourself in 5 seconds and see that even at a temp of 0 you never get the same output

Works perfectly fine for me. Did you do that stupid HN thing where you failed to read the entire comment and then went off to try it on faulty hardware?

No I did that HN thing where I went to an LLM, set temp to 0, pasted your comments in and got widely different outputs every single time I did so

Re: Is it a bubble?

#483

Post by [deleted] »

lm28469 wrote: post #482
9rx wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Works perfectly fine for me. Did you do that stupid HN thing where you failed to read the entire comment and then went off to try it on faulty hardware?

No I did that HN thing where I went to an LLM, set temp to 0, pasted your comments in and got widely different outputs every single time I did so

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#484

Post by 9rx »

lm28469 wrote: post #482
9rx wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Works perfectly fine for me. Did you do that stupid HN thing where you failed to read the entire comment and then went off to try it on faulty hardware?

No I did that HN thing where I went to an LLM, set temp to 0, pasted your comments in and got widely different outputs every single time I did so

"Went" is a curious turn of phrase, but I take it to mean that you used an LLM on someone else's hardware of unknown origin? How are you ensuring that said hardware isn't faulty? It is a known condition. After all, I already warned you of it.

Now try it on deterministic hardware.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#485

Post by mrwrong »

ProllyInfamous wrote: post #479
sethammons wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At $WORK, we have a bot that integrates with Slack that sets up minor PRs. Adjusting tf, updating endpoints, adding simple handlers. It does pretty well. Also in a case of just prose to code, Claude wrote up a concurrent data migration utility in Go. When I reviewed it, it wasn't managing goroutines or waitgroups well, and the whole thing was a buggy mess and could not be gracefully killed. I would have written it fa…

This is a great response, even for a blue collar worker understanding none of its complexities (I have no code creation abilities, whatsoever — I can adjust parameters, and that's about it... I am a hardware guy ). My layperson anecdote about LLM coding is that using Perplexity is the first time I've ever had the confidence (artificial, or not) to actually try to accomplish something novel with software/coding. Witho…

what really comes through in this description is a fear of judgement from other people, which I think is extremely relatable for anyone who's ever posted a question on stack overflow. I don't think it's a coincidence that the popularity of these tools is coinciding with a general atmosphere of low trust and social cohesion in the US and other societies this last decade

Re: Is it a bubble?

#486

Post by 9rx »

simianwords wrote: post #481
9rx wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why read comments in isolation? We already went over this: - Rapid price appreciation - Speculation - A disconnect from fundamentals - Widespread media attention - An eventual correction If market cap, how do you explain housing bubbles? Market cap is not applicable to housing.

of course market cap of housing went down! individual houses fell down in price. that didn't happen for tech stocks. you are making your own definitions of bubble - the sufficient thing to happen is for the market cap to go down precipetously which it didnt.

> of course market cap of housing went down! individual houses fell down in price.

Traditionally, market cap only refers to companies. I accept your pet definition that includes any kind of market, but then we can apply it to the software development market just the same. Individual software developers have fallen in price. There was not a significant drop, but a slow decline.

> that didn't happen for tech stocks.

Nor gold. But what does that have to do with the software development market? Are you under the impression that stock certificates write code?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#487

Post by wakawaka28 »

badsectoracula wrote: post #390
wakawaka28 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are all good outcomes, up to a point. But if this stuff works TOO well, most or maybe all of us will have to start looking at other career options. Whatever autonomy you think you have in deciding what the AI does, that can ultimately be trained as well, and it will be the more people use it. I personally don't like it when others who don't know how to code are able to get results using AI. I spent many years o…

> I personally don't like it when others who don't know how to code are able to get results using AI. Sounds like for many programmers AI is the new Visual Basic 6 :-P

It's worse than that lol. At least with VB 6 and similar scripting languages, there is still code getting written. Now we have complete morons who think they're software developers because they got some AI to shit out an app for them. This is going to affect how people view the profession of software engineering all around.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#488

Post by NewsaHackO »

friendzis wrote: post #339
NewsaHackO wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the issue is that I think you are underestimating the number of people not doing "advanced" programming. If it's around ~80-90%, then that's a lot of +1s for AI

Wrong. 80% of code not being advanced is quite strictly not the same as 80% people not doing advanced programming.

I completely understand the difference, and I am standing by my statement that 80-90% of programmers are not doing advanced programming at all.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#489

Post by palmotea »

yunwal wrote: post #432
palmotea wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> One important reason people like to write code is that it has well-defined semantics, allowing to reason about it and predict its outcome with high precision. Likewise for changes that one makes to code. LLM prompting is the diametrical opposite of that. > You’re still allowed to reason about the generated output. If it’s not what you want you can even reject it and write it yourself! You missed the key point. You…

For many things you can though. If I ask an LLM to create an alert in terraform that triggers when 10% of requests fail over a 5 minute period and sends an email to some address, with the html on the email looking a certain way, it will do exactly the same as if I looked at the documentation, and figured out all of the fields 1 by 1. It’s just how it works when there’s one obvious way to do things. I know software de…

I think you're still missing the point. This cousin comment does a decent job of explaining it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46231510

Re: Is it a bubble?

#490

Post by Daishiman »

noodletheworld wrote: post #336
Daishiman wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The claims of AI writing significant chunks of code come from these sort of people with little experience in programming or engineering in general, SPA vibe coders and what not. I'm sorry man but I've been doing this for 25 years and I've worked and studied with some extremely bright and productive engineers. I vouch for the code that I write or that I delegate to an LLM, and believe it or not it doesn't take a mag…

> I have zero knowledge of k8s, helm or configmaps … > I vouch for the code that I write or that I delegate to an LLM, and believe it or not it doesn't take a magician to write a k8s spec file… I have been writing code since 1995. That has zero relevance to my skill at rolling out deployments in a technology I know nothing about. One of the two things you’ve said is false: Either a) you do know what you’re talking ab…

> Either a) you do know what you’re talking about, or b) you are not confident in the results. It can’t be both.

You've been coding for a lifetime yet you don't seem to get that certainty in software is a spectrum? I have sufficient confidence in the output of LLMs to sign my name under the code it writes when putting up a PR for a specialist to read. That's good enough for 90% of the work that we do day-to-day. You think that's not hype-worthy?

> Doing it for K8s configuration, if you don’t know k8s is stupid. I know what I’m talking about when I say that. Having it help you if you do know what you’re doing is perfectly legit.

"Knowing" k8s is an oxymoron. K8s is a profoundly complicated piece of tech that can don insanely complicated things while also serving as a replacement for docker-compose or basic services that could have been hosted on ECR. The concepts behind basic k8s functionality are not difficult, but I saved myself two weeks of reading how to write helm spec files, a piece of knowledge I have no interest in learning because it doesn't add any appreciable value to the software I produce, and was instead able to focus on getting what I needed out of my cluster automation scripts.

This really isn't that complicated to understand. I don't care for being a k8s expert and I don't care for syntactical minutiae behind it. It isn't hype that I now I only need to understand the essential conceptual basics behind the software to get it working for what I need instead of doing a deep dive like I had to do years ago in when reading similar docs for similar IaC producs to get lesser functionality going.

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