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AI is different

antirez.com

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Re: AI is different

#481

Post by jordanpg »

apwell23 wrote: post #469
antirez wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To understand why this is too optimistic, you have to look at things where AI is already almost human-level. Translations are more and more done exclusively with AI or with a massive AI help (with the effect of destroying many jobs anyway) at this point. Now ebook reading is switching to AI. Book and music album covers are often done with AI (even if this is most of the times NOT advertised), and so forth. If AI prog…

> Book and music album covers are often done with AI These suck. Things made with AI just suck big time. Not only are they stupid but they have negative value on your product. I cannot think of single purely AI made video, song or any form of art that is any a good. All AI has done is falsely convince ppl that they can now create things that they had no skills to do before AI.

Of course, your opinion may be subject to selection bias (i.e., you are only judging the art that you became aware was AI generated).

Re: AI is different

#482

Post by PleasureBot »

badestrand wrote: post #251
closewith wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> instead of only somewhat reliably fulfilling very narrowly scoped tasks that require no creativity or expertise. This alone is enough to completely reorganise the labour market, as it describe an enormous number of roles.

How many people could be replaced by a proper CMS or a Excel sheet right now already? Probably dozens of millions, and yet they are at their desks working away. It's easy to sit in a café and ponder about how all jobs will be gone soon but in practice people aren't as easily replacable.

A lot of jobs really only exist to increase headcount for some mid/high level manager's fiefdom. LLMs are incapable of replacing those roles as the primary value of those roles is to count towards the number of employees in their sector of the organization.

Re: AI is different

#483

Post by WesleyLivesay »

jordanpg wrote: post #481
apwell23 wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Book and music album covers are often done with AI These suck. Things made with AI just suck big time. Not only are they stupid but they have negative value on your product. I cannot think of single purely AI made video, song or any form of art that is any a good. All AI has done is falsely convince ppl that they can now create things that they had no skills to do before AI.

Of course, your opinion may be subject to selection bias (i.e., you are only judging the art that you became aware was AI generated).

Reminds me of the issue with bad CGI in movies. The only CGI you notice is the bad CGI, the good stuff just works. Same for AI generated art, you see the bad stuff but do not realize when you see a good one.

Re: AI is different

#484

Post by antirez »

apwell23 wrote: post #469
antirez wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To understand why this is too optimistic, you have to look at things where AI is already almost human-level. Translations are more and more done exclusively with AI or with a massive AI help (with the effect of destroying many jobs anyway) at this point. Now ebook reading is switching to AI. Book and music album covers are often done with AI (even if this is most of the times NOT advertised), and so forth. If AI prog…

> Book and music album covers are often done with AI These suck. Things made with AI just suck big time. Not only are they stupid but they have negative value on your product. I cannot think of single purely AI made video, song or any form of art that is any a good. All AI has done is falsely convince ppl that they can now create things that they had no skills to do before AI.

This is not inherent to AI, but how the AI models were recently trained (by preference agreement of many random users). Look for the latest Krea / Black Forest Labs paper on AI style. The "AI look" can be removed.

Songs right now are terrible. For the videos, things are going to be very different once people can create full movies in their computers. Many will have access to the ability to create movies, and a few will be very good, and this will likely change many things. Btw this stupid "AI look" is only transient and is nowhere needed. It will be fixed, and AI images/videos generation will be impossible to stop.

Re: AI is different

#485

Post by HiroProtagonist »

narrator wrote: post #466

I like to point out that ASI will allow us to do superhuman stuff that was previously beyond all human capability. For example, one of the tasks we could put ASI to work doing is to ask it to design implants that would go into the legs that would be powered by light, or electric induction that would use ASI designed protein metabolic chains to electrically transform carbon dioxide into oxygen and ADP into ATP so to p…

> one of the tasks we could put ASI to work doing is...

What makes you so confident that we could remain in control of something which is by definition smarter than us?

Re: AI is different

#486

Post by apetresc »

apwell23 wrote: post #469
antirez wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To understand why this is too optimistic, you have to look at things where AI is already almost human-level. Translations are more and more done exclusively with AI or with a massive AI help (with the effect of destroying many jobs anyway) at this point. Now ebook reading is switching to AI. Book and music album covers are often done with AI (even if this is most of the times NOT advertised), and so forth. If AI prog…

> Book and music album covers are often done with AI These suck. Things made with AI just suck big time. Not only are they stupid but they have negative value on your product. I cannot think of single purely AI made video, song or any form of art that is any a good. All AI has done is falsely convince ppl that they can now create things that they had no skills to do before AI.

I mean, test after test have shown that the vast, vast majority of humans are woefully unable to distinguish good AI art made by SOTA models from human art, and in many/most cases actively prefer it.

Maybe you’re a gentleman of such discerningly superior taste that you can always manage to identify the spark of human creativity that eludes the rest of us. Or maybe you’ve just told yourself you hate it and therefore you say you always do. I dunno.

Re: AI is different

#487

Post by Matumio »

btilly wrote: post #7

In every technology wave so far, we've disrupted many existing jobs. However we've also opened up new kinds of jobs. And, because it is easier to retrain humans than build machines for those jobs, we wound up with more and better jobs. This is the first technology wave that doesn't just displace humans, but which can be trained to the new job opportunities more easily than humans can. Right now it can't replace human…

Those displaced workers need an income first, job second. What they were producing is still getting done. This means we have gained freedom to choose what else is worth doing. The immediate problem is the lack of income. There is no lack of useful work to do, it's just that most of it doesn't pay well.

Re: AI is different

#488

Post by AYBABTME »

DougBTX wrote: post #464
suddenlybananas wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll believe it when I see it.

That’s one of the interesting things about innovation, you have to believe that things are possible before they have been done.

Only if you've set out to build it. Otherwise you can sit and wait.

Re: AI is different

#489

Post by rpdillon »

motorest wrote: post #290
XenophileJKO wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your assumption is probably a little backwards. It will be a senior SDE clearing the slate I think. Ones that embrace the technolocy and are able to accelerate their work. At that level of effeciency the cost is still way way lower than it is for a larger team. When it gets to the point that you don't need a senior engineer doing the work, you won't need a junior either.

> I think your assumption is probably a little backwards. It will be a senior SDE clearing the slate I think. I don't think you understood the point I made. My point was not about Jr vs Sr, let alone how a Jr is somehow more capable than a Sr. My point was that these productivity gains aren't a factor of experience of seniority, but they do devalue the importance of seniority to perform specific tasks. Just crack ope…

Just as an anecdote that might provide some context, this is not what I've observed. My observation is that senior engineers are vastly more effective at knowing how to employ and manage AI than junior engineers. Junior engineers are typically coming to the senior engineers to learn how to approach learning what the AI is good at and not good at because they themselves have trouble making those judgments.

I was working on a side project last night, and Gemini decided to inline the entire Crypto.js library in the file I was generating. And I knew it just needed a hashing function, so I had to tell it to just grab a hashing function and not inline all of Crypto.js. This is exactly the kind of thing that somebody that didn't know software engineering wouldn't be able to say, even as simple as it is. It made me realize I couldn't just hand this tool to my wife or my kids and allow them to create software because they wouldn't know to say that kind of thing to guide the AI towards success.

Re: AI is different

#490

Post by Wowfunhappy »

antirez wrote: post #465
keiferski wrote: post #411

There’s a simple flaw in this reasoning: Just because X can be replaced by Y today doesn’t imply that it can do so in a Future where we are aware of Y, and factor it into the background assumptions about the task. In more concrete terms: if “not being powered by AI” becomes a competitive advantage, then AI won’t be meaningfully replacing anything in that market. You can already see this with YouTube: AI-generated vid…

To understand why this is too optimistic, you have to look at things where AI is already almost human-level. Translations are more and more done exclusively with AI or with a massive AI help (with the effect of destroying many jobs anyway) at this point. Now ebook reading is switching to AI. Book and music album covers are often done with AI (even if this is most of the times NOT advertised), and so forth. If AI prog…

> Now ebook reading is switching to AI.

IMO these are terrible, I don't understand how anyone uses them. This is coming from someone who has always loved audiobooks but has never been particularly precious about the narrator. I find the AI stuff unlistenable.

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