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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#481

Post by fredfish »

An interesting and upbeat article.. But the death rate from overdose went from 9 to 32 per 100000 in the last 2 decades. Using their entrance logic, if I understand what this means afa per annum, couldn't that amount to a few hundred per 100000 who are not cycling into long prison terms because they are dead?

There's been something like 900k excess deaths since 1968 compared to if the rate was just flat since then. That's a lot of people who probably had a much higher chance of incarceration than average even if you only consider drug law and the more recently someone was born the more likely they are to have already overdosed at any given age.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#482

Post by giardini »

999900000999 wrote: post #150
pamelafox wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had my children at 36 and 38, and I'm the mother, and energy-wise, I've had no issues. Yes, they considered me to be of "advanced maternal age" in the OB department and gave me special treatment due to it, but my doctors told me that the "advanced maternal age" threshold (35) was based off outdated research anyway. In the bay area, most of the mothers I've met were around that age, and my friends are having their k…

The issue here is this can lead people to pushing it till 40+. I was talking to a nice girl up until she mentioned still wanting kids in her late 40s. Maybe I’m old school, but telling someone you froze your eggs the same day you meet them is weird. Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle. This rapidly transformed int…

Society is not "broken" whatever that means.

Half the population has an IQ less than 100. Do not expect the low-IQ group to ever get a masters or earn 300K as a couple, etc.

Caveat- this may have to be amended due to the watering-down of educational standards in the USA.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#483

Post by Tade0 »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #367
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

Lifestyle is key here. An older friend conveyed to me pretty much the exact same thing you are, that he cannot imagine having kids at 40 because you will not be able to keep up with them energy wise. You get old and your body really starts to give in. Alright Geoff, thanks, but you are 54 and do zero exercise, have a diet of eating out at fast food and fast casual restaurants, a body type that would be described as "…

Physical shape is not the same or even proportional to the ability to pull all-nighters.

I know two men 18 years apart in age who became fathers at the same time - two months apart to be exact. Even though the older is an avid gym-goer, it's only the younger who can pull off popping back into full strength after less than 6h of sleep.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#484

Post by jimbokun »

specialist wrote: post #440
Justsignedup wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a kid at 22, I am now 40 with a kid going to college. I can echo this exact sentiment. However at 22 I wasn't the experienced person I am today. Nor was I stable, nor could I jump on opportunities like my peers could. If having a child in your early 20s would mean not losing opportunities in progressing in a career, at least with enough free childcare and food to feed the children, people could be more inclined…

Was also a young parent. Empathetic yes to all. Securing stable health insurance dictated most of my career decisions. I was captive to turrible gigs, had to pass on a lot of opportunities. Want to revitalize our society? #1 is Medicare for All. More startups, more risk taking & innovation, higher birth rate, etc. #2 is childcare. Cheap, plentiful, good quality. #3 is housing. Again: Cheap, plentiful, good quality. P…

> #2 is childcare. Cheap, plentiful, good quality.

This costs infinite money.

It's impossible to scale, because nobody wants an environment where their child is not getting attention from compassionate, engaged adults throughout the day. To get the same level of care as a stay at home parent, you need as many care workers as there are families with young children. And if you pay those workers comparably to the average wage, you need to tax the entire wages of one parent in each family to cover the care costs.

It's probably much cheaper to write checks to families encouraging them to have one parent care for their own children full time.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#485

Post by missinglugnut »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #367
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

Lifestyle is key here. An older friend conveyed to me pretty much the exact same thing you are, that he cannot imagine having kids at 40 because you will not be able to keep up with them energy wise. You get old and your body really starts to give in. Alright Geoff, thanks, but you are 54 and do zero exercise, have a diet of eating out at fast food and fast casual restaurants, a body type that would be described as "…

>Meanwhile at trail running meets, I bump into 60 year olds still giving some 35 year olds a run for their money.

Interrupt that 60 year old's sleep twice a night with a newborn crying, add a bunch of new responsibilities, and I'll be impressed if he even makes it to the meet.

You're comparing people who have made exercise their #1 priority in life to people who have made their kids and supporting their families financially their top 2 priorities. It's a bullshit comparison.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#486

Post by jimbokun »

c22 wrote: post #79
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

I had kids in my late 30s and they tested my patience and emotional regulation to an extent greater than any other experience of my life. I was somewhat emotionally volatile in my 20s and I can't imagine my kids having better outcomes if I'd had to learn to parent at that time in my life.

A lot of people are "emotionally volatile" in their 20s because they don't have the growth in responsibility and maturity motivated by being a parent.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#487

Post by jimbokun »

georgeecollins wrote: post #446
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

I think having kids before you are 30 is fine, but we had our second kid when my wife was 36 and it was also fine. I think when you get in your forties as a man or late thirties as a woman it can be tougher. Also, adopt. Before I was a parent I thought of a child as "mine" because of biology. Really you see that you shape people and form a connection with them because they are part of your family.

> I think having kids before you are 30 is fine, but we had our second kid when my wife was 36 and it was also fine.

Which is another important point: if you want multiple children you probably want to have your first earlier than you might otherwise.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#488

Post by whoknowsidont »

cooper_ganglia wrote: post #388
whoknowsidont wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any clear examples of this that demonstrate the consistency of the pattern you're describing?

Sure, a quick search unfortunately gives you result after result! https://www.wsmv.com/2025/06/23/family-woman-murdered-nashvi... https://nypost.com/2025/02/28/us-news/career-criminal-free-w... https://www.fox26houston.com/news/the-judge-did-her-job-defe... https://nypost.com/2025/02/22/us-news/nyc-career-criminal-ty... https://nypost.com/2025/06/21/us-news/plucky-nyc-victim-94-v... https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-ju…

Even the Fox links go back to the NY Post. lol.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#489

Post by jimbokun »

mrweasel wrote: post #282
arkey wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd argue that the best time to get kids is as a university student. You get free daycare, the government doubles your stipend (and it's extended), your housing subsidy increases, you generally have more free time as a student... Where... where do you live? I'm all for having kids as soon as possible, but I was barely able to provide for just myself during university.

I'm in Denmark. You get around $1100 per month from the government as a university student, you then get around the same amount per child (not sure if a couple get half of that each). Still if you're two students, with a child, that's at least $3300 a month. That's not a lot of money, but there are also government loans you can get, and again, free daycare and subsidies for housing. It's not a get rich scheme, but it…

Stupid sexy socialism.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#490

Post by jimbokun »

solatic wrote: post #258
dcow wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

Or, you continue to grow the population through immigration. The US is unique (or maybe there are a handful of others, I don't know) in its ability to welcome immigrants who, within two generations, largely see themselves as Americans first and not as the identity of their grandparents. American identity politics has eroded this somewhat but it is still largely true, for example, that grandchildren of immigrants will…

Declining fertility is a global phenomenon.
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