There use to be a cookie factory here that had up to 12 people sitting there all day doing nothing. If the machines broke down it really took all of them to clean up. This pattern will be rediscovered.
The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
481–490 of 1001 posts
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#482I worked at two different $10B+ market cap companies during ZIRP. I recall in most meetings over half of the knowledge workers attending were superfluous. I mean, we hired someone on my team to attend cross functional meetings because our calendars were literally too full to attend. Why could we do that? Because the company was growing and hiring someone to attend meetings wasn't going to hurt the skyrocketing stock.…
I've said this many times, that the abundance and wealth of the tech industry basically provided vast amounts of Universal Basic Income to a variety of roles (all of agile is one example). We're at a critical moment where we actually have to look at cost-cutting on this UBI.
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#483I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…
Honestly, if anything i think AI is going to reverse the trend. Someone is going to have to be hired to clean up after them.
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#484Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…
"shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output?" No. The bottleneck isn't intellectual productivity. The bottleneck is a legion of other things; regulation, IP law, marketing, etc. The executive email writers and meeting attenders have a swarm of business considerations ricocheting around in their heads in eternal battle with each other. It takes a lot of supposedly brilliant thinking to safely monetize all…
Maybe this means that LLMs are ultimately good for small buisness. If large buisness is constrained by being large and LLMs are equally accesible to 5 people or 100 then surely what we will see is increased productivity in small companies?
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#485Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just can't agree with this argument at all. Today, you hire an intern and they need a lot of hand-holding, are often a net tax on the org, and they deliver a modest benefit. Tomorrow's interns will be accustomed to using AI, will need less hand-holding, will be able to leverage AI to deliver more. Their total impact will be much higher. The whole "entry level is screwed" view only works if you assume that companies…
Tomorrow's interns will be accustomed to using AI, will need less hand-holding, will be able to leverage AI to deliver more. Maybe tomorrow's interns will be "AI experts" who need less hand-holding, but the day after that will be kids who used AI throughout elementary school and high school and know nothing at all, deferring to AI on every question, and have zero ability to tell right from wrong among the AI response…
It's worth reminding folks that one doesn't _need_ a formal education to get by. I did terrible in school and never went to college and years later have reached a certain expertise (which included many fortunate moments along the way).
What I had growing up though were interests in things, and that has carried me quite far. I worry much more about the addictive infinite immersive quality of video games and other kinds of scrolling, and by extension the elimination of free time through wasted time.
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#486Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…
"shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output?" No. The bottleneck isn't intellectual productivity. The bottleneck is a legion of other things; regulation, IP law, marketing, etc. The executive email writers and meeting attenders have a swarm of business considerations ricocheting around in their heads in eternal battle with each other. It takes a lot of supposedly brilliant thinking to safely monetize all…
Even still, in theory this should free up more money to hire more lawyers, markerters, etc. The effect should still be there presuming the market isn't saturated with new ideas .
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#487Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…
Reistically its because layoffs have a high reputational cost. AI provides an excuse that lets companies do lay offs without suffering the reputation hit. In essence AI hype makes layoffs cheaper.
Doesnt really matter if AI actually works or not.
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#488Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…
The problem seems to be two-fold. Firstly, the capex is currently too high for all but the few. This is a rather obvious statement, sure. But the impact is a lot of companies "have tried language models and they didn't work", and the capex is laughable. Secondly, there's a corporate paralysis over AI. I received a panicky policy statement written in legalaise forbidding employees from using LLMs in any form. Written…
> Firstly, the capex is currently too high for all but the few.
> This is a rather obvious statement,
Nobody is saying companies have to make LLMs themselves.
SASS is a thing.
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#489I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…
Honestly, if anything i think AI is going to reverse the trend. Someone is going to have to be hired to clean up after them.
If anyone will actually bother with cleaning up.
Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine
#490Only way to know for sure you're safe from replacement is if your job is a necessary part of something generating revenue and your not easily replaceable. Otherwise you should assume the company won't hesitate to replace you. It's just business.
Yeah I thought that too. Then they laid me off anyway.