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Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

bloomberg.com

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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#481

Post by XorNot »

throw0101d wrote: post #125

There are valid reasons for tariffs: * https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/when-are-tariffs-good Especially when it comes to certain areas of the economy: > Democratic countries’ economies are mainly set up as free market economies with redistribution, because this is what maximizes living standards in peacetime. In a free market economy, if a foreign country wants to sell you cheap cars, you let them do it, and you alloca…

Except tarrifs rarely help any of that: there's already extensive regulations in place to require local sourcing for defence critical components, all the way down the supply chain.

And tarriffing imports doesn't make a difference in the case of something like shipbuilding where the real problem is the government hasn't got a consistent order-book to keep factories staffed, operating and training - nor a plan to allow that capacity to leverage into being self supporting.

Like a much better plan has always been defence exports: increase your customer base to spread risk and reduce per unit prices. The F-35 and it's adoption was a great idea in this regard...right up till the US started threatening NATO allies and cutting off avionics support to partner nations (Ukraine) in the middle of a war.

You don't get a defence manufacturing industry without actually paying for a defence manufacturing industry. The whole "bring manufacturing back" idea is almost wholly disconnected from it: a ton of factories extruding plastic childrens roys aren't suddenly going to start making anti-shipping missiles - in fact this is related to a secondary problem which is that it's not remotely clear that a peer/near-peer conflict would look anything like the long wars that WW2 represented due tot he delivery timelines on advanced weapons systems. You basically go to war with the military you have.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#482

Post by Taniwha »

I manufacture a small open source product in China, I also warehouse there (because shipping is so much cheaper). About 1/3 of my customers live in the US, other customers live in countries that charge tariffs, they have to deal with local customs or post offices to pay what they owe, it's not something that's really an issue for me (except for occasionally helping people track down missing packages).

Currently shipping out of China seems disrupted, more because the shipping companies are leary about getting stuck with the tariffs, the US doesn't have the infrastructure to collect them, Post Offices don't have the bandwidth, people can't take time off work etc etc - that may change, but it's not something that can change overnight

Trump's exemption for computer stuff will likely mean that my packages will eventually sail through, but I'm about to do another build, China's reciprocal tariffs will affect my cost of parts and it's a bit unfair making my non-US customers pay for this silly pointless trade war, since the silliness changes every day I think I;m just going to wait this out for a month or two

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#483

Post by grues-dinner »

pcthrowaway wrote: post #471
jonplackett wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

I think it's good to consider what the implications are if Hanlon's razor fails... but I'm not giving up hope that this is all just a result of the incompetence of Trump and his administration either.

Hanlon's Razor is worse than useless if the target is aware of the principle. Then they can be malicious and play it off as incompetence. Which works especially well when they are also surrounded by genuine incompetents. They can also be, and often are, malicious and incompetent.

It's like saying "if it's white, fluffy and has four legs, never assume it is anything but a sheep". If the wolf knows you're applying that logic, what happens next?

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#484

Post by AnthonyMouse »

jonplackett wrote: post #60
cinbun8 wrote: post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

> This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief.

Weirdly the same explanation works if you're being less uncharitable, i.e. Apple agreed to invest $500B in the US but everybody knows new factories aren't going to be built overnight, so they get a reprieve from the tariffs for now provided they continue to go through with the investment. Which in turn makes them immune from future tariffs once they're actually making iPhones in the US, while allowing the tariffs to be reinstituted against anyone who didn't do likewise.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#485

Post by yks »

koolba wrote: post #148
joshuanapoli wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a populism move, not pay-to-play. The imminent reality would have been this: many Americans will want to take a vacation to Canada to get a deal on their phone. That just doesn’t make sense.

> many Americans will want to take a vacation to Canada to get a deal on their phone. That just doesn’t make sense. If they’re following the law they’d have to declare the purchase when they come home.

Let me explain how that works in the real world — you drop all the tags/boxes/receipts for the merchandise, maybe apply some dirt, then you can claim that it's not new and you brought it with you from your home country originally. Also in the airport there is a rather high chance you get to go through the green lane where your bags aren't checked. There are certain manners that help with not being singled out for the bag check. How do regular people learn these? When you live in the corrupt country, you quickly learn how to look ordinary and not interesting to the authorities.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#487

Post by latency-guy2 »

badc0ffee wrote: post #229
jmull wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You found a puff piece from 2010 to extoll Trump? (It appears to be a promotional piece for a "CNBC Titans" episode featuring Trump.) I try to assume good intent, which includes not writing off the odd things people post as bot-generated, but in this case, attributing this to a bot is quite a positive spin.

Maybe it's a puff piece, but it contains examples of what he did with his life and businesses. You couldn't write an article like that after 2015 or so without it being influenced by his disaster of a political career. My point is, he didn't just sit on daddy's money, he actually pulled off a couple of savvy moves. There are plenty of other things to criticize him for.

> his disaster of a political career.

45th and 47th president of the USA as a disaster seems to be setting the bar unbelievably high for failure.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#488

Post by goatlover »

joak wrote: post #361
prng2021 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep seeing these explanations of “4D chess”. It’s Donald Trump. He has absolutely no idea what he’s doing when it comes to economic policies. Unless you believe he can see into the future of how other world leaders would react and consistently outsmart everyone else, there’s no 4D chess being played.

Completely agree no 4D chess here. Just a guy that wants to keep the attention on him, one day is kissing Russia's ass, the next day when "peace" is failing, it's tariffs, etc etc no strategy at all, just a show to stay on first page day after day.

It's more than that. What you say is true about his character, but there is also a playbook to keep power. The autocrats copy one another. And he has people like Steven Bannon who are strategizing how he can serve a third term.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#489

Post by goatlover »

belter wrote: post #359
prng2021 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep seeing these explanations of “4D chess”. It’s Donald Trump. He has absolutely no idea what he’s doing when it comes to economic policies. Unless you believe he can see into the future of how other world leaders would react and consistently outsmart everyone else, there’s no 4D chess being played.

How can somebody even entertain the idea is able the hold the concept of Chess, much less 4D, while at the same time being aware he nominated Matt Gaetz for Attorney General...Let that sink in for a while... "In 2020, Gaetz was accused of child sex trafficking and statutory rape. After an investigation, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) decided not to charge him. In December 2024, the House Ethics Committ…

What matters is loyalty. The chess being played is for full unitary executive power, essentially making Trump an autocrat. Everyone bends the knee to him, or is too powerless or afraid to oppose. Like what has happened with Putin in Russia.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#490

Post by jppope »

cinbun8 wrote: post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

> it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists

Not sure why there is a presumption that one exists or that its coherent. With even the slightest critical eye its easy enough to discern that this isn't about economic policy or trade and that the proposed "policy" doesn't make any sense. The guy in charge of this stuff is either seeing what he can get away with, fucking with people, or building a narrative...

that is to say what you are watching isn't "real".

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