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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#481

Post by slg »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#482

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

scarface_74 wrote: post #409
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The administration has signaled that they expect to negotiate acceptable balance-of-trade deals with the US's Asian allies over the next few weeks. If that happens, I can see businesses being certain enough to make investments. Until then I'm bracing for a recession too.

You mean like he railed against the Canada/Mexico trade deal that he negotiated during his first term?

I feel like you're arguing against something I didn't say. I agree there's a good chance the president will make up new tariffs or fail to negotiate some of the current ones. If that happens then trade deals with Asian allies won't reassure anyone. That's why I'm still preparing for a recession.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#484

Post by shaky-carrousel »

monero-xmr wrote: post #420
magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

I disagree. Trump has been threatening tariffs since 2016. Each step he gets closer to significant tariffs. This time he stepped back after they seemed real. Now businesses know he really, super means it this time, so they get another reprieve. But next time it would be hard to claim Trump didn’t warn them.

Trump has been talking about tariffs since the eighties.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#485

Post by UncleMeat »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

This makes some sense... but they didn't pause the tariffs. There's still a 10% tariff on everybody (including on top of Mexico and Canada, who were previously exempted from the tariffs announced last week) and the tariff on China continues to rise to preposterous proportions.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#486

Post by dachris »

robin_reala wrote: post #273

The best way to stay clear from this insanity is to divest from the US as much as possible / reasonable. It won’t help second-order effects, but it reduces your exposure.

I wouldn't go that far (there's still the possibility that things change for the better for whatever reason), but those 60%-70% of the US in global stock indices really do look like single country risk now.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#487

Post by mywittyname »

xracy wrote: post #423
coldpie wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? Who cares? Business leaders & the politicians they helped elect are stripping the copper from the country. Whatever's left when they're done is someone else's problem.

I'm gonna say 'yes, but' instead of 'yes, and'. Yes, but the big problem is that these same business leaders and politicians are going to be the ones who get first bite at the apple. And so how they plan is going to impact what's left for everyone else. I don't care because they burned the system to the ground, I care because they're gonna salvage what they need and nothing else.

I guarantee lots of people in The Swamp are getting word on planned announcements so they can make their stock market bets before the news is announced.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#488

Post by throwawaymaths »

compumike wrote: post #305

Is it just the historical legacy of international trade that tariffs apply only to physical goods, but not to something like software-as-a-service subscriptions, digital media, or intellectual property? As the latter categories are more representative of US exports, it would surely be an interesting escalation if other countries were to start including them in their “retaliatory” tariffs.

Yes, that makes sense for Europe but it doesn't help China, because China already prevents a considerable amount of US media consumption and much of what is consumed is bootlegged anyways.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#489

Post by bluGill »

throwaway48476 wrote: post #433
thfuran wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't pass muster. If they had much interest in balancing the books, they wouldn't be ripping huge holes in revenue collection.

If they wanted to balance the books they'd print money and distribute it to US citizens.

They care about inflation too though. Trump is old enough to remember the high inflation 1970s well so he won't make that mistake. Kids today probably won't remember it other than an item from "ancient history" and might make the mistake, but Trump won't.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#490

Post by Hikikomori »

magicloop wrote: post #458
thfuran wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't pass muster. If they had much interest in balancing the books, they wouldn't be ripping huge holes in revenue collection.

That's fair but I suggest that they are actually deficit hawks for the long term . In the short term, they've got financing troubles hence they care about the yield.

Didn't they just announce a 1 trillion budget for defense?
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