TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#481

Post by lupusreal » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:16 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #456

drodgers wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as mo…

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

A blockade takes time to have an effect and that time gives US Navy SSNs time to start sinking the PLAN (in righteous response to the PLAN attacking merchant ships approaching Taiwan.)

For the PRCs invasion of Taiwan to work with minimal risk of excessive losses, they need to do it very quickly so that it's a fait accompli, minimizing the chance of any American response at all.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#482

Post by neonsunset » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:16 AM UTC

I hope they reconsider. The US does not appear to be a counterparty which can be trusted to follow through with their obligations anymore and this venture sounds quite risky.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#483

Post by kelipso » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:17 AM UTC

ikurei wrote: post #472

netsharc wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I subscribe to your theory too. It's odd how Putin and his defenders spout all sorts of theories about the evil of NATO and "the West", but if you (addressing the dictators here) have faith in your arguments, why suppress viewpoints that disagree with yours, with media company closures, network firewalls and threats of years in the gulag?

Because their argument, in which they do have faith, is that a cacophony of disagreeing viewpoints casting doubts on the common national project is hurtful, even if those doubts are unfounded and those viewpoints unsubstantiated. I'm not defending autoritarianism or communism, but I think you're just not putting yourself in their shoes and looking at things from their POV. They supress other viewpoints not because th…

One of the reasons for the collapse of the USSR was that the propaganda done by the US was better than the propaganda done by the Soviets. So it's not like there isn't a historical reason for this either.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#484

Post by UltraSane » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:18 AM UTC

jonkoops wrote: post #465

huijzer wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.

This seems like one of Putin's motivations for invading Ukraine. He couldn't stand having a prosperous Ukraine aligned with the EU and the US that could foment discontent inside Russia.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#485

Post by UltraSane » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:19 AM UTC

cookiemonsieur wrote: post #428

huijzer wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

[flagged]

Then China very much is the intruder in Tibet.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#486

Post by lupusreal » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:19 AM UTC

bloomingkales wrote: post #478

nverno wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

Why not buy them out? If you give everyone 100k it’s only 2.4 trillion. Or even better, just buy out the militant element.

Would you subject your family to a Cultural Revolution in exchange for 100k? Add several zeros and assurances of safe passage out of the country and maybe you'd be onto something, but that's not going to happen for numerous reasons.

The PRC already buys the loyalty of who they can in Taiwan, but Taiwan nevertheless remains resolute.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#487

Post by chmod775 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:21 AM UTC

bloomingkales wrote: post #458

huijzer wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

Never underestimate the power of saving face. The Taiwan invasion had a dry run with how they handled Hong Kong. This is going to happen and my guess is it will be on Trump’s way out. That way it all gets done during the 2028 election season, and all the next President can do is pout. It’s a win-win for Trump because he keeps China at bay for three years, which is good enough for him.

How are Taiwan and Hong Kong at all comparable? Hong Kong never had their own military, was never an independent nation, and was officially handed over from Britain to China in 1997. There was no armed invasion of Hong Kong - Chinese military was already garrisoned there for 25 years.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#488

Post by lupusreal » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:21 AM UTC

nmeofthestate wrote: post #476

drodgers wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US would respond to with a freedom-of-navigation exercise backed up by the full might of US-PACOM. China would lose that standoff.

Can we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.

Even if the PRC can't be sure America would respond, a small risk of America responding has some deterrent effect. Hopefully enough.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#489

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:21 AM UTC

huijzer wrote: post #406

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

[deleted]

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#490

Post by kelipso » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 11:23 AM UTC

drodgers wrote: post #417

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as mo…

I don't think that's accurate. The population is concentrated on the west coast, all that mountainous terrain is unpopulated. Also it's an island that's very close to China.