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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#481

Post by cm2187 »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #452
nabla9 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

I don’t feel that OpenAI has a huge moat against say Anthropic. And I don’t know OpenAI needs Microsoft nearly as much as Microsoft needs OpenAI

But is it even clear what is the next big leap after LLM? I have the feeling many tend to extrapolate the progress of AI from the last 2 years to the next 30 years but research doesn't always work like that (though improvements in computing power did).

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#483

Post by AdamN »

ralfd wrote: post #480
nabla9 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

How important are top science guys though? OpenAI has a thousand employees and almost unlimited money, and llm are better understood, I would guess continous development will beat singular genius heroes?

Agreed - it's good to have some far thinking innovation but really that can be acquired as needed so you really just need a few people with their pulse on innovation which there will always be more of outside a given company than within it.

Right now it's all about reducing transaction costs, small-i innovating, onboarding integrations, maintaining customer and stakeholder trust, getting content, managing stakeholders, and selling.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#484

Post by cm2187 »

golergka wrote: post #196
teaearlgraycold wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was literally me at Google

Silicon Valley is one of the most underrated documentaries of the last decade.

If you extend the window a little bit, along Yes Minister, Idiocracy and Demolition Man (the last two being a documentary of our time filmed 20y ago).

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#485

Post by ifdefdebug »

danielbln wrote: post #423
qp11 wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just based on current energy usage never going to happen. You just have to ask them to show you their energy bills alongside their demos.

A plane takes a LOT more energy than a bird, yet both fly, one of them a lot faster.

A plane is good at hauling cargo and goes fast, but general flying skills? Doesn't even come close.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#487

Post by Shrezzing »

reducesuffering wrote: post #450
n_ary wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't worry, these are the "keeping the bridge intact" speak of people leaving a glorious or so workplace. I have worked at several places, and when people left(usually most well paid ones), they post linkedin/twitter posts to say kudos and inspire that, the corresponding business will be in forefront of the particular niche this year or soon and they would like to be proud of ever being part of it. Also, when they s…

> Also, when they speak about AGI, it raises their(person leaving) marketing value Why yes, of course Jan Leike just impromptu resigned and Daniel Kokotajlo just gave up 85% of his wealth in order not to sign a resignation NDA to do what you're describing...

While he'll be giving up a lot of wealth, it's unlikely that any meaningful NDA will be applied here. Maybe for products, but definitely not for their research.

There's very few people who can lead in frontier AI research domains - maybe a few dozen worldwide - and there are many active research niches. Applying an NDA to a very senior researcher would be such a massive net-negative for the industry, that it'd be a net-negative for the applying organisation too.

I could see some kind of product-based NDA, like "don't discuss the target release dates for the new models", but "stop working on your field of research" isn't going to happen.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#488

Post by bpiche »

surfingdino wrote: post #370
htrp wrote: post #43

Ilya will literally have a blank check from almost all the VC's in the industry.

Nope. His non-competes are likely very restrictive.

I just want to point out that you have noted this falsehood like five times in this thread already. Noncompetes have been unenforceable in California since 2008, and for over a month federally.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#489

Post by zaphirplane »

mtnGoat wrote: post #379
VirusNewbie wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but it's not true. Most people work a lot at G. Maybe some teams in search coast or something. But for every slacker I know 8 people who stay late a fair bit.

My experience differs greatly, company I used to work for did NDA, alpha, beta projects with Google. I was always impressed at how little anyone knew, the fact that nothing was delivered on time, scope creep to the point of almost everything being delayed and most projects were not well thought out nor well architected. I warned one API update would break things if it went live, and it did. Why was the guy from anoth…

But ask a dynamic programming question and watch it get smashed out None of the points you raise relate to being really good at dynamic programming

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#490

Post by bamboozled »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #452
nabla9 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

I don’t feel that OpenAI has a huge moat against say Anthropic. And I don’t know OpenAI needs Microsoft nearly as much as Microsoft needs OpenAI

They seem to have a huge "money moat" now. Partnerships with Apple and MS mean they have a LOT of money to try a lot of things I guess.

Before the Apple partnership, maybe it seemed like the moat was shrinking, but I'm tno sure now.

Likely they have access to a LOT of data now too.

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