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San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

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Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#481

Post by anthonybsd »

hahaxdxd123 wrote: post #347
anthonybsd wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From where I'm standing, productivity doesn't look so great. It's an open secret in my remote-heavy, North American west-coast social circle that everyone knocks off at 1-2pm when the east coast people are definitely logged off. Probably the east coast people are doing the same thing, but in the morning. Lots of happily phoning it in. That hasn't been my experience at all. I work for a multinational company with tea…

Can confirm like 80% of my Google friends are 3 hour/day types. But then again, it was only 5-6 hours/day before COVID anyway.

I mean it all depends on what they do. 3 hours a day of coding is huge amount of work. 3 hours a day of zoom meetings is meh.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#482

Post by axxto »

bvanderveen wrote: post #182

I do ask myself how long the WFH trend is going to last. My hypothesis is that at some point in the next 5 years we're going to starting seeing articles on HN promoting the productivity and well-being benefits of in-person interaction with your co-workers. From where I'm standing, productivity doesn't look so great. It's an open secret in my remote-heavy, North American west-coast social circle that everyone knocks o…

> What will be the confluence of circumstances that will demand that we take our jobs more seriously? I can think of one "confluence of circumstances" that would make me take my job more seriously: Higher salaries

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#483

Post by bombcar »

nopzor wrote: post #460
bombcar wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody wants to talk about it but we really need to decriminalize hiring druggies . Drug addicts can work quite well in the trades (drywall hangers are famous for being meth-heads in some areas) but once "enforcement" starts cracking down on hiring them, they can't find work.

is it a crime to hire drug addicts? what enforcement are you talking about?

If it's not directly illegal (certain "high risk" jobs) it's practically illegal because of insurance requirements.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#484

Post by abduhl »

inferiorhuman wrote: post #320
abeppu wrote: post #299

So the commercial real estate problem is real, but this article also is concerned with the impacts to the municipal government. How important are those really? > The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s property values, paints a much worse picture: His…

This data is several years old, but in a ranking of large American cities by budget per citizen That is an incredibly disingenuous metric and it's not surprising at all that DC and SF are at the top of the list. Washington DC is a quasi-state masquerading as a city and San Francisco is a consolidated city and county. The budgets of those two cities encompass things that are externalized in other cities.

Denver is also a consolidated city and county as well as the Colorado state capital. Denver’s budget per citizen is 1/4 San Francisco’s and 1/8 DC’s. Why is Denver not higher if what you’ve identified as making SF special has such a large impact?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#485

Post by killerdhmo »

buscoquadnary wrote: post #212
bluejekyll wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crime is rampant According to the data, crime in SF is lower that it was a few years ago: https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ... > Drug use and filth is everywhere. Voters can’t seem to wrap their head around better housing policies to get people off the street. It’s disappointing, the entire Bay Area is guilty of this.

> According to the data, crime in SF is lower that it was a few years ago: https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ ... Every time I see something like this I will point out that during the anti-police movement that happened a while back, many police started reducing their activity either because they were told to, because prosecutes would refuse to prosecute, or because they didn't want to be the…

That... is literally their job. if they are unable or unwilling to do so, maybe they should find another profession. There are countless stories on reddit of police officers actively witnessing crime taking place and doing nothing about it. Blaming it on the DA or whatever perceived political backlash they might get is akin to EMTs not taking patients because a doctor might not be able to save them.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#486

Post by jelliclesfarm »

Apocryphon wrote: post #454
jelliclesfarm wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities should have capped populations for efficiency. There has to be high income, medium income and low income housing ratio to have a balanced and economically diverse population. We just have to build another city with great infrastructure and network it to other cities when we have an influx of population due to jobs or organic population growth. It’s like how they say.. When there is a surfeit of sardines, we bu…

> We just have to build another city with great infrastructure and network it to other cities when we have an influx of population due to jobs or organic population growth. Ah, the cyberpunk solution. https://cyberpunk.fandom.com/wiki/Night_City#Inception_(1990...

The future. The rumors of a cyberpunk dystopia are unfounded!

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#487

Post by cpursley »

thatfrenchguy wrote: post #250
cpursley wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money goes to where it's treated best and people vote with their feet. I know people thumb their nose on the state, but Florida is open for business. But the real secret is Puerto Rico and their incredible tax incentives for software companies.

I mean, comparing San Francisco and Florida is crazy. One is a medium-density place with one of the best climate on earth and vaguely decent state politics, the other one is a soon-to-be-sinking-in-the-water mostly red state with cities that are just suburbs with crazy traffic and stupid laws. People don't live in SF because they want to live in a detached SFH and stay inside most of the day, I could do that anywhere…

California climate is nice indeed. But Florida has some amazing beaches and nature and nice weather most of the year.

I feel you on the density. But reality is most of California is also suburbia. In Florida there are some smaller towns with some walk/bike-ability.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#488

Post by cpursley »

ricardobayes wrote: post #233
cpursley wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money goes to where it's treated best and people vote with their feet. I know people thumb their nose on the state, but Florida is open for business. But the real secret is Puerto Rico and their incredible tax incentives for software companies.

The real real secret is Portugal, can't beat 10 years tax-free on foreign income.

I almost mentioned Portugal but decided to keep it domestic.

The Puerto Rico tax deal is the best available for US citizens, still.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#489

Post by cpursley »

mullen wrote: post #329
cpursley wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money goes to where it's treated best and people vote with their feet. I know people thumb their nose on the state, but Florida is open for business. But the real secret is Puerto Rico and their incredible tax incentives for software companies.

Florida could be a real option vs SF but not with Fascists in charge.

Good grief, is anyone right of center considered "fascist" now?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#490

Post by hollywood_court »

nebula8804 wrote: post #466
hollywood_court wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you described is seen all over small towns here in the South. So many of my peers think that their employees owe them something. As a tradesman, I hear the same thing from so many of my peers in the real estate repair/building industry. What most of them don't realize is that they are actually successful exploiters of labor rather than successful business people. I judge a company by how well they treat the lowe…

Times like this I am reminded of all those Swiss CNC shops that offer to train people out of high school sometimes for 4+ years fully paid and then offer them a full time job often a lifetime position. These businesses have operated for generation some for 100+ years now. We are starting to see bits of this come back but I wonder if this country still has the culture to make it stick. [1]: https://youtu.be/kWBQHicfyf…

If you think about it, we’re a bunch of suckers here in the US. We spend money and lose years of income to obtain education for the privilege of being someone’s employee.
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