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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#481

Post by david927 »

lumost wrote: post #7
avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

> Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash.

Buying in cash is being done to skirt the tightened up lending standards that followed the 2008 Crisis:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/uflzht/the_2022...

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#482

Post by bityard »

dangrossman wrote: post #348
SauciestGNU wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

The DMV in my state requires you make an appointment 4-6 months out right now. Walk-in appointments are unavailable or only available during a few hours a few days a week, if they happen to have staff that day. Good luck if you have your drivers license stolen. I sold a car of mine to Carvana in October. I returned the license plate to the DMV immediately, which is how they're notified that you no longer own the vehi…

Please don't still your car to carvana. They are destroying private party used car sales in many communities around the country.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#483

Post by Bubble_Pop_22 »

Apocryphon wrote: post #458
Bubble_Pop_22 wrote: post #216

Despite my handle I'd wager that it all comes down to a very risk averse society as shown by pretty much every metric ranging from low birth rate to drinking to smoking to drug usage etc. Back in the days when interest rates went down, people started new businesses or expanded those they already owned at a huge pace. I mean the population as a whole not the businesses in the S&P500. When the Fed rolled rates to zero…

> Back in the days when interest rates went down, people started new businesses or expanded those they already owned at a huge pace. I mean the population as a whole not the businesses in the S&P500. Did you miss the startup boom + bubble of the past decade or something > Investing in the stock market with a financial advisor essentially buying the S&P or some other mutual fund..that's way less risky than starting yo…

[flagged]

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#484

Post by dangrossman »

bityard wrote: post #482
dangrossman wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DMV in my state requires you make an appointment 4-6 months out right now. Walk-in appointments are unavailable or only available during a few hours a few days a week, if they happen to have staff that day. Good luck if you have your drivers license stolen. I sold a car of mine to Carvana in October. I returned the license plate to the DMV immediately, which is how they're notified that you no longer own the vehi…

Please don't still your car to carvana. They are destroying private party used car sales in many communities around the country.

How are they doing that?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#485

Post by DragonStrength »

winter_blue wrote: post #446
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

> where employees demanded equivalent pay increases to housing cost increases How can employees realistically speaking even do this?

Well, if you're in California and don't own a house, you move. It's not a great option if you were raised here, but a whole bunch of people can take a small pay cut (especially thinking about down equity and inflation) to move back to their hometowns right now. For me, a home (3/2, 1500sqft) in the neighborhood I'd move to in my hometown (US city; 1 mil metro area) is less than my household income, which we'll realistically keep 80+% of when we move. I'd wager a healthy segment of Bay Area mid-level, domestic-born engineers fit this profile. I'd wager that holds true in many metro areas, even those we don't consider tech hubs because it is all relative.

I wouldn't want to be a mid-level Bay Area manager in my 40's with a mortgage on the peninsula right now. Who is coming to buy that house? Who is going to train all the 22 year olds moving here?

EDIT: And I didn't even think about all the early retirees the major changes to the workplace will obviously prompt. Who wants to spend the last couple years of their career re-learning how to do a job you've done for decades and have been well-compensated for? I'd be at the beach.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#486

Post by 331c8c71 »

shrimpx wrote: post #443
maigret wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Dollar cost averaging is timing the market. No this is the exact opposite. It’s like passive vs active https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp

That definition is incomplete. It makes it sound like you have to be constantly moving funds around to time the market, vs "buy and hold". But you can certainly time the market using "buy and hold", by waiting for the right moment to buy. And even if you buy "asap", you're still employing a market-timing strategy, that "buying asap is better than buying later". Dollar-cost averaging is a form of timing the market, be…

IMHO a more precise way to put it is that by choosing one investment strategy vs another one implicitly makes assumptions about the market.

There's also the emotional side we are kind of neglecting here.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#487

Post by 01100011 »

adam_arthur wrote: post #405
martindbp wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla made more money last quarter than Ford, GM and Toyota. Toyota made 10x the number of cars as Tesla. Tesla is growing vehicle production 50% YoY, while growing profit even faster (having barely hit economies of scale yet). Tesla has a backlog of orders approaching a year in many regions. Everyone else is losing money on their EVs and can't make them in volume production, can't find the batteries for them, becaus…

It's not about revenue, it's about valuation. The revenue can be whatever you want, the valuation determines long run returns. Tesla could be priced at 20x PE or 100x PE and be the same company. Your returns will be vastly different between the two scenarios. OPs point, which is pretty obviously objectively true, is that valuations far exceeded future yields by any fundamental valuation metric. Tech has been valued a…

Talk to a Tesla zealot and this is the story: Tesla masters self-driving and their robotaxis take over global transportation leading to complete and unending dominance.

It's almost as if none of them has ever run a business or even studied history. It's best not to try to reason with them at this point. Just smile and walk away. Over time they'll figure it out.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#488

Post by zitterbewegung »

lumost wrote: post #7
avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

The markets are efficient but they aren’t perfect. In any situation the markets will do the best to optimize but will always fall short of perfection . Since markets aren’t perfect that’s why you can make money by speculation.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#489

Post by wbsss4412 »

labcomputer wrote: post #477
wbsss4412 wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be shocked if they were able to maintain those margins. They’ve faced relatively little competition in the EV space until this point and benefited from a shortage juicing prices. As demand eases and more entrants come into the EV space, they will have to lose margin, market share, or both.

> I would be shocked if they were able to maintain those margins. I wouldn't be. They have fundamental and very broad patents on important things like: * Pre-heating the battery on the way to a charging stop (enables the battery to accept faster charging without damage on road trips) * Using motor waste heat for battery heating (increases range while use the above strategy) * Dynamically adjusting charge rates due to…

I’m not intimately familiar with teslas patent strategy, but to my knowledge they aren’t enforcing any of those patents at all. Every single one of those features are present on competitor vehicles already.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#490

Post by bogomipz »

bushbaba wrote: post #73
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

...or housing will drop as interest rates go up. And a non insignificant number of folks were over extended in leverage. I know too many folks who did 7/1 ARMs cash out refi to purchase another home in a 7/1 ARM loan, banking not on cashflow but appreciation. I know of folks who bought homes using margin loans in their stock portfolio. If housing stagnates, there will be margin calls, leading to supply shock, and pri…

>"I know too many folks who did 7/1 ARMs cash out refi to purchase another home in a 7/1 ARM loan, banking not on cashflow but appreciation."

What's the strategy behind the "7/1 ARMs cash out refi" and the second homes?

It's curious that would people do an ARM when interest rates were at historic lows no? Were these second home as in part vacation home, part AirBnBs lets?

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