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South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

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Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#481

Post by dTal »

throwntoday wrote: post #351
akomtu wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We shouldnt forget that something like 80% of them were already old people with a variety of health issues.

And all of the young "healthy" people who died had comorbidities like obesity and diabetws or some congenital issues unknown to them.

One third of Americans are clinically obese alone. Half are over 40. What percentage of people actually fit your "young and fully healthy" criteria? Are we meant to be comforted by this?

Seriously - what's the subtext here?

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#482

Post by eropple »

mekkkkkk wrote: post #477
tasogare wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No he is totally right. I haven't been able to see my girlfriend for two years because of borders closing. I had to wait two years to see my parents. Friends and family that were supposed to visit me couldn't. Hundreds of event have been cancelled. I couldn't practice my martial art because our training place was close. I was denied entry in a library two days ago. I couldn't network or present my work in person at a…

I have a lot of sympathy. The situation sucks, and some have it worse than others. Expats and people with important relationships in other countries have it especially bad. I understand that. I have expat friends that have had a really rough time too. That being said, it sucking is not the same as years being wasted. You still have opportunities to do plenty of other stuff. The only reason these years would be wasted…

> Are they going to be among the best years of your life? Probably not. Are they necessarily wasted and "stolen"? No.

This is a much better way of describing my reaction to these claims. I appreciate you making it soberly.

There are absolutely folks who've been dealt a rough hand over the last two years--but I certainly wouldn't call my life "boring", and somehow I've figured out ways to make the last two years two of the best of my life: building a wood shop, getting away from the computer more, learning more about myself. And while I'll go back to traveling, etc. once things settle down, I have learned that I don't have to go places to be fulfilled.

Focusing on what one can't do is probably a great way to have made the last two years suck, though.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#483

Post by chaostheory »

mrjangles wrote: post #455
chaostheory wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

West coast, Midwest, and north east: Ohio, Rhode Island, Alaska, Iowa Providence hospitals on the west coast are overwhelmed Hennepin hospitals are overwhelmed in Minneapolis Trinity Health with hospitals in 25 states is also getting overwhelmed https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/21/1066093... “ The troops deployed to hospitals will include doctors, nurses, paramedics and other personnel during January…

See this is exactly what they said last time, they said hospitals were being overwhelmed then it turned out later that the emergency wards had been empty the whole time. Anyway, I was suspicious so I looked up some of the hospitals you mention. It turns out they are actually short of staff not beds... because they fired them all for not taking the vaccine. https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/athena-thorne/2021/12/.…

1. I wouldn’t call PJ media a reliable news source, and I lean right

2. Not all staff quit due to vaccine requirements. As some of the articles pointed out, they quit due to sheer exhaustion from the hospitals being continually overwhelmed

3. The percentage of nurses taken out due to vaccine requirements is less than 1%. Yes, every staff member counts, but that’s not the sole source or even the main source for hospitals being overwhelmed

4. The main cause of hospitals being overwhelmed is still due to a surge of incoming patients.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#484

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

jimmygrapes wrote: post #379
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Via previous infection? And if so, you're not concerned about waning protection? It would appear that people even with previous wild/delta infections have hit or miss immunity to omicron.

You gotta remember that the vast majority of infections are asymptomatic or mild. We focus on the ones that aren't, for a number of valid reasons, but this also skews the average person's risk tolerance and awareness toward thinking that there's life altering danger in each infection. There's millions walking about who think it's a fake virus because they got a headache and a sore throat for a day while being told th…

But that doesn't address the questions about natural immunity at all. Assuming you already had it and that you were 100% fine and you're now forever immune seems extraordinarily foolish.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#485

Post by JPKab »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #464
JPKab wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing. The science has been super clear on this for a long time. The problem is that the CDC and NIH, the grand tradition of federally funded science, have chosen not to study anything that conflicts with the directives of their organizations. They haven't bothered to study natural immunity and have left it to other countries like Israel. Instead they pr…

> So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing. A thing that gives some benefit to a lot of South African who also later got sick with COVID-19-Omicron, some of those were hospitalised, and some of those died. So clearly not a magic wand that prevents Omicron entirely. A benefit obtained at huge human costs in previous waves, which vaccination would have blunted. You can tell the bad takes be…

The United States Federal Government doesn't acknowledge that naturally conferred immunity for COVID exists in any policy. They admit that it's "something to be studied" and ignore all science from other nations. Meanwhile, most European nations have acknowledged this in the form of policy. The Dutch just (in the last few days) extended their green pass eligibility based on previous infection from 180 days to 365 days based on the recommendation of their public health authorities.

The above policy is pushed in the exact Medical Boolean Logic you just attacked in your comment. They push policies that pretend the vaccinated can't spread it and that unvaccinated (previously infected or not) are all dangerous to be around. Boolean logic. They deliberately avoided informing the public about the extremely steep age gradient of risk for COVID infection, pushing that no matter your age or health status, COVID is super dangerous to you. Boolean logic. CNN has had a different story of the same variety fixed to their front page for over a year: A story featuring a person who isn't old getting really sick from the virus who wasn't vaccinated. They deliberately highlight the statistical outliers to push the boolean logic that YOU ARE AT RISK FROM COVID NO MATTER YOUR AGE/HEALTH. Yep, and I'm also at risk of getting struck by lightning when I take a walk on a sunny day. They push the lie that previous infection provides no immunity. My father's physician told him the other day that "natural immunity from COVID doesn't exist." Boolean logic.

You're attacking me for "bad takes"? Are we on Twitter here? I utterly despise that kind of dialogue, and the meta-analysis of my commentary as if I'm part of some super-entity of horrible humans who fall into a collective tribe to be attacked and expelled from all polite conversation. I'm a lifelong Democratic voter, I drive an electric car, I think climate change is bad, support women's rights, support labor unions, I grow marijuana and donate to medical patients and no, I'm not a "simplistic all or nothing" thinker. You've done this in other threads, and clearly view yourself morally superior to those who disagree with you on this specific issue.

One thing to add: I've voted Democratic since my first vote for Al Gore in 2000. I voted for Biden in 2020. I will never vote Democrat again. I've switched my status to Independent. This party no longer deserves my support, and I look forward to voting for anyone not in it in the future. They aren't the party of science anymore. The Republicans are nutbags, but at least they don't interfere with my life and force me to get a shot i don't want or need. I caught COVID, I recovered, and I'm done. Fuck anyone that wants to force me to get a shot I won't benefit from. As if there's a single fucking record of someone catching COVID a second time and suffering more severe symptoms than with the first infection.

The vaccine mandate turned me into a single issue voter. No government will ever tell me I have to inject something into my body to be allowed to engage in commerce. Especially a government like the US, which doesn't do a fucking thing to pay for my health care. They have no fucking right. If I get myocarditis from the shot, like a 35 year old Googler who lives on my street did (he now has permanent scarring on his heart), the bill is on ME. Fuck that. He can't even hike with me anymore, and will suffer life-long side-effects. And the bill for the treatment is on him.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#486

Post by throwntoday »

zuminator wrote: post #389
throwntoday wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And all of the young "healthy" people who died had comorbidities like obesity and diabetws or some congenital issues unknown to them.

This is just a no true Scotsman argument in disguise. To wit, anyone who is young and healthy won't die from corona, therefore anyone young who died from it wasn't "really" healthy and had "unknown" issues. You can make that argument with any illness, and people do. E.g., you can't get cancer if you eat healthy, oh, you got cancer? You must not have been eating the right diet for your body type.

It's not a fallacy it's a very simple statement. Cancer was probably the worst example for your case as its something that can develop in-spite of being healthy and as far as we know it is not caused by a virus.

Most people who contracted covid, 99.9% of them, are fine. Of those that have died, 100% seem to have had some underlying issue. You're acting as though it's unreasonable to account for comorbidities when determining the cause of death.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#487

Post by afrodc_ »

sjg007 wrote: post #447
afrodc_ wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are they packed? Genuinely curious to see some data about this.

I don't think you are genuinely curious at all. And if you were actually genuinely curious you could do a cursory Google search or even read a major newspaper. Instead you sit waiting on someone else to deal with your asinine request.

Man this is the most non constructive response I've heard. I'm looking for a resource of data showing hospital utilization and you come say me with this nonsense.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#488

Post by lrem »

mrjangles wrote: post #455
chaostheory wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

West coast, Midwest, and north east: Ohio, Rhode Island, Alaska, Iowa Providence hospitals on the west coast are overwhelmed Hennepin hospitals are overwhelmed in Minneapolis Trinity Health with hospitals in 25 states is also getting overwhelmed https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/21/1066093... “ The troops deployed to hospitals will include doctors, nurses, paramedics and other personnel during January…

See this is exactly what they said last time, they said hospitals were being overwhelmed then it turned out later that the emergency wards had been empty the whole time. Anyway, I was suspicious so I looked up some of the hospitals you mention. It turns out they are actually short of staff not beds... because they fired them all for not taking the vaccine. https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/athena-thorne/2021/12/.…

Uh, hospitals don't get short of furniture anywhere in the world. Most places don't even get short of equipment. It's almost always staff that is the limiting factor.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#489

Post by clairity »

zuminator wrote: post #461
sudosysgen wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not quite what R0 means. R0 is the reproductive rate in a naive population. I believe the variable you are looking for is R(t), which is the effective reproductive rate at any point of time.

Thank you. I've seen the phrase "effective R0" used, for example, here [0], but I can see that you are correct that R(t) is the generally accepted epidemiological term. [0] https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/how-scientists-quantif...

this is a mathematical convention, not simply an epidemiological term. the 0th term of any function, like R0, is generally understood as the initial condition constant (at time t=0). R(t) is a function of time and R0 is the value of R at time 0, the initial condition. R0 tells you exactly nothing about the future, it only pins down the starting point (which is important information, but not the be-all-and-end-all of it).

i’ve been mildly amused/dismayed by the constant misplaced focus on R0 over the past 2 years by the media/laypeople, given this essential context.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#490

Post by jacquesm »

jefftk wrote: post #346
com2kid wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some interesting numbers at https://www.nationalnursesunited.org/press/new-report-reveal... and https://abcnews.go.com/Health/3600-us-health-workers-died-co... All of that is pre-delta, remember that when COVID first hit in 2020 we still didn't have a good idea how it spread. The tl;dr is that the US government doesn't do a good job of collecting statistics of how many health care workers died of COVID. 1.5k nursing…

1.5k nursing home workers out of a total of about 600k. That's 0.25%. Across the whole population, we've had 810k deaths out of 330M, which is also 0.25%. So we still have the same number of nursing home workers per capita. Except that, considered per nursing home resident, it's an increase, because the rate of nursing home residents dying has been much higher than the general population.

That's true, but it is an excellent advertisement for the risks of the job to others who may not have thought about this beforehand. So one person may die and a multiple may walk.
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