Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater • Hacker News Board

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#481

Post by kiklion » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:33 PM UTC

tayo42 wrote: post #151

sneak wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A monthly payment on a mortgage of $1mm is ~$4k. That’s the same cost to rent a 2-3br in the 1k-1.4k square foot range in much of San Francisco. Napkin math suggests that it’s a reasonable payment for those >=$170k annual income, which is very common in software in the USA.

there's also insurance, pmi if you didn't do the down payment, hoa seems common, taxes. Thats all more then 50% of my take home. (Im not including my rsu, im hesitant to budget off that theyre so variable) And a million dollar home is cheap at the moment. Looks like the median in sf if 1.5million.

I financed 250,000 of a mortgage last year, and my mortgage payment is about $1200 a month (including taxes and insurance)

Assuming taxes and insurance correspond with a % of home value, a 1 million mortgage would be about $4,800 a month.

Or about $4,000 a month if talking about a $1 million dollar house with 80% financed.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#482

Post by m463 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:33 PM UTC

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

What about other stuff? I got a quote for electrical work that was only good for 14 days because of the volatile prices of copper wire and other components like panels and circuit breakers.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#483

Post by dboreham » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:35 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #398

dboreham wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Andrew is where I learned that a regular joe could just buy heavy equipment and do the small excavation jobs contractors wouldn't touch. Sometimes he omits safety measures to the point that it's hard to watch (check out the recent bar sickle mower episode). So it's worthwhile reading the comments to find out what not to do also.

Before buying look at renting. There are pros and cons to renting, but most people won't use that enough to make buying cheaper, and renting means it is maintained for you.

True but renting doesn't work for me because:

1. My lifestyle is such that I only get an hour or two here and there to progress my projects. It takes probably 2h to go fetch a machine and unload it, so zero work would get done.

2. Around here rental machine availability is very inconsistent: it's quite likely that whatever machine you want is not available when you need it.

3. I've found that it's beneficial to have various attachments and accessories that most rental places don't carry such as a ditching bucket, pallet forks, brush mower.

4. I need to do snow removal in winter and although not necessary, heavy equipment comes in handy for that.

5. Other random things that arise when you own property: lift a fallen tree off your vehicle; unload palletized deliveries from semi truck, etc.

6. Typically the value of machines doesn't drop much, so if you have the cash available, buying machines with the expectation of selling them some time in the future means overall low TCO.

That said, I'd rent when I need a machine I would only use for one job.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#484

Post by mrexroad » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:40 PM UTC

orthoxerox wrote: post #271

blitzar wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sometimes the wife is pregnant The mid project reveal is always "surprise we are pregnant". It brings me great added joy when they are building a 'dream' 3 bedroom house and it is the 3rd kid that they are pregnant with.

One bedroom for the parents, two bedrooms for the kids. As long as all kids conform to the gender binary, two bedrooms should be enough.

This. 3 kids here in a 3 bedroom house (~1100sqft). One in high school, middle, and elementary. It works, although another 500sqft would give us some more breathing room.

Since my boys are teenagers now, I spent the pandemic building a rather nice lofted bed setup out of baltic birch ply for their shared room. It gives them their own personal space (had them help design use cases) and more privacy than most kids in the world have. One is autistic and hypersensitive to the others habits, but I was able to mitigate 95% of that with visual blocking, acoustic materials, and a HomePod mini for pink noise.

You make do with what you have. Some of son’s friends live in 5-10M houses, some live in trailers, some in apartments. I think they all understand that, while they probably want more, they’re lucky to have this.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#485

Post by comeonseriously » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:44 PM UTC

tayo42 wrote: post #25

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

My SO and I are both devs and we make good money. We live in a low CoL area and basically live on one income. We've been tightening our belt even more because everything is so crazy. We paid off our house recently but it was about 14% of our income. There's NO WAY I would move right now and buy a house and have it 30, 40 or 50% of our income. I don't understand how people who make the median are able to stay afloat right now.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#486

Post by moftz » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:46 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #221

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

I remember watching an episode where they planned to build a partially subterranean home all within some sort of triangle shaped junkyard that sat on the interior of a block of townhomes. Completely ridiculous idea but when you've got lots of money, why not? There were two basement levels and then two planned above ground levels except they ran out of money for the top floor and stopped there. Who wants to live in that terrible location in a house where most of the living space is in a basement? They could have built a lovely country mansion or even a very nice normal house in the suburbs. Instead, they waste money on unique but stupid ideas.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#487

Post by comeonseriously » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:49 PM UTC

lordnacho wrote: post #316

tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I don't get it either, and I'm a hedge fund manager. To my mind nothing seems like it's a sensible price in any of the cities I look at. I mean I get that there's a fair few people making good money who can buy a £2M home, but it doesn't make any sense that there are entire swathes of London where every home is like that. A quick google suggests that a £100K income is in the top 3% in this country, and top 1% is abou…

> I get the feeling it will end badly.

Yes, it will. When people get shoved into tiny homes with their parents and children and have zero hope for any future on their own, you will see the people say enough is enough. They will march. They will protest. They will vote. They will clean house.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#488

Post by NordSteve » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:52 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #307

dagw wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that anybody can do any type of electrical work (in homes), but certain type of electrical work needs to be certified. If your electrician isn't certified then a third party certifier has to certify the work after completion.

It is the same in the US. The actual labor can be done by anyone, but a licensed electrician has to be willing to accept liability for it. It is quite a racket in some towns, as some electricians will have an “expedited” relationship with the town’s inspectors, so you basically have to hire certain electricians if you want your project to move along smoothly. The electrician will come by and walk through for 5 min gl…

Not true everywhere in the US, this sort of thing is regulated at the state level.

Where I live, a homeowner is allowed to do their own electrical work. Must be permitted and inspected, though. When I've done big projects in the past, I've asked the inspector out at the start to ask for their advice -- gotten really good info that way.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#489

Post by sizzle » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:58 PM UTC

magicalhippo wrote: post #294

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> Realize too, the General Contractor just hires licensed subs, and takes a healthy cut off your nut. Some close relatives bought a plot in a newly developed area, and tried to find a contractor to build their home. After listening to others in the area, it was pretty clear there was a couple of good, reputable ones and one avoid-at-all-costs. So they went with one of the reputable ones. The guy decides at some point…

Hopefully he watched some YouTube videos on how to mix and pour concrete /s

I would be livid and consulting lawyers if I was exposed to this brazen bait and switch by so called “reputable” company.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#490

Post by patentatt » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:59 PM UTC

cmckn wrote: post #444

tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I tend to agree, but the numbers aren’t that crazy. My rent in the Seattle area is $2500/month. I could buy a reasonably-nice house here for around $750k. If you have a $150k down payment (which isn’t unrealistic to amass over ~5 years on a nice tech salary), your mortgage payment will come out to ~$3000/month. That’s not chump-change, and it’s more than my current rent; but you’re getting a lot more for your money.…

What about property taxes? Don't know about WA, but where I am property taxes are nearly half again as much as the principal and interest, so a hypothetical $3k (P+I) could be more like $4-4.5k in some areas.