From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…
I see 3 things driving the market now. An overdue market correction, reasonable reaction to supply chain issues and an irrational reaction to the virus. A temporary boost to the market gives more time for the true long term impact to the supply chain to play out. It may turn out that the boost only gave a short respite but it may also turn out that it saved the market unneeded turmoil. A short term boost also gives p…
Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
481–490 of 499 posts
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#482For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#483Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ahh, I see. I think I understand the confusion now. I believe our primary disagreement here lies in the fact that you don't see /u/airstrike not differentiating between fiscal and monetary policy in his/her original comment, as a major red flag, whereas from my perspective I do. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You're wrong. That is not our primary disagreement.
I've laid out what I think to be the issue between our perspectives. If you disagree, that's more than fine, but you've got to give me more than a "you're wrong" if you want to have a meaningful conversation.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#484For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…
I actually think the Fed is kind of happy to have a virus as cover for this move.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#485We're basically running out of tools to combat an actual financial crisis. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquiditytrap.asp
Only because the toolset is artificially restricted for ideological reasons. Fiscal responses (having the government spend actual money, either on things like infrastructure it by just handing it out to the population, which will then largely spend that money as they see fit) rather than monetary policy responses (reduce rates and hope that people will borrow more) are known to work well in most cases. The Corona vir…
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#486Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The argument is that it cannot have long-term real effects because if it did we would all be incredibly rich, since it costs nothing to increase the money supply by whatever amount. Increasing the money supply is effectively a transfer of wealth from people who own/lend currency to people who owe/borrow it. It doesn't come without cost. It's effectively taxing one group and giving the money to another. As for stimu…
> What it does is increase borrowing. But only in the short term, since lenders will catch on and increase their interest rates to offset the inflation. As you said, you're transferring wealth from lenders to borrowers, which means a larger incentive will be needed to induce anyone (other than the Fed) to lend money. To maintain the effect you would not only need to maintain the inflation but also continually increas…
No, because lowering interest rates by 0.5% generally doesn't cause inflation to increase by 0.5%.
Moreover, most of the inflation from lower interest rates happens immediately. If you lower interest rates people borrow more money which causes some inflation, but to cause even more inflation people would need to borrow even more money, which they wouldn't do unless you lowered interest rates even further.
The level of outstanding debt (i.e. the money supply) goes up and then stays there until interest rates go back down and give people incentive to pay it back.
> As you said, you're transferring wealth from lenders to borrowers, which means a larger incentive will be needed to induce anyone (other than the Fed) to lend money.
Banks can borrow money from the Fed and lend it to other people. Also, when you lower interest rates it lowers the returns on everything else because people borrow money and use it to bid up securities, and then the now-smaller returns from issuing loans remain relatively attractive.
Notice that the US has had near-zero interest rates for over a decade and there isn't anything even resembling hyperinflation. But there is a whole lot more outstanding debt than there was when interest rates were higher.
> Giving them more money doesn't increase the amount of material or labor available
Sure it does, in the sense that available means in productive use rather than merely having physical existence.
If you pay people more they'll spend more time working and less time watching TV. They'll dig minerals out of the ground to make stuff with instead of leaving them in the ground. There is a difference between having something and doing something with it.
> It only works out to a net benefit under the assumption that you know how those goods should be put to work better than the people directly involved—despite apparently being unable to persuade people that your plan is better rather than resorting to underhanded tricks.
The entire premise of lending money is based on this being true. It's the assumption that some people have good ideas but not capital to fund them.
There are plenty of ideas that you can expect to turn $100,000 this year into $105,000 next year. If interest rates are at 4% they're viable, if they're at 6% they're not. Lowering interest rates makes more of those things viable.
It's not a matter of persuasiveness, it's a matter of transaction costs. Alice wants to start a company. She could borrow money and use it to pay salaries -- which is only possible if she can borrow at a sufficiently low interest rate. Or she could pursuade the workers to work all this year and not get paid until next year (when they'll get paid with interest). But then the workers would have to convince their landlords to let them live in their apartments without paying rent for a year, and the landlords would have to convince the government to let them defer paying property tax for a year, and the government would have to persuade the teachers to teach without pay for a year and so on.
Obviously borrowing the money from a bank is a lot more realistic.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#487Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The argument is that it cannot have long-term real effects because if it did we would all be incredibly rich, since it costs nothing to increase the money supply by whatever amount. Increasing the money supply is effectively a transfer of wealth from people who own/lend currency to people who owe/borrow it. It doesn't come without cost. It's effectively taxing one group and giving the money to another. As for stimu…
> What it does is increase borrowing. But only in the short term, since lenders will catch on and increase their interest rates to offset the inflation. As you said, you're transferring wealth from lenders to borrowers, which means a larger incentive will be needed to induce anyone (other than the Fed) to lend money. To maintain the effect you would not only need to maintain the inflation but also continually increas…
No, because the reason you lower interest rate targets are exactly the conditions which provide lower returns on alternative investments besides lending. You can only afford to raise rates for lending if you've got something better to do with the money.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#488Earlier quoted context omitted.
> fiscal policy can't really affect the real economy Fiscal policy ( e.g. the government buying tanks) absolutely affects the real economy. The central bank doesn't control fiscal policy. It controls monetary policy. Monetary policy also affects the real economy, just indirectly.
Monetary policy is about increasing or decreasing the money supply. The argument is that it cannot have long-term real effects because if it did we would all be incredibly rich, since it costs nothing to increase the money supply by whatever amount. Every underdeveloped nation would simply increase their money supply and poverty would be a thing of the past.
No, even if the acheivable aggregate real expansionary impact of monetary policy were unbounded (which no one argues it is) we wouldn't all be rich because monetary policy also has a distributional impact. But, more to the point, having bounded real impact isn't the same as zero real impact.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#489Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your links don't say what you think they say. Did you even read them? It's mostly ambiguous language and uncertainty. We think this, it's not certain that. It changes day to day. Case in point the incubation period from your own link. "Most estimates of the incubation period range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates are updated as more information becomes available." How long does it remai…
After a month there are still fewer US COVID-19 deaths than Tennessee tornado deaths from one day.
Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus
#490Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're wrong. That is not our primary disagreement.
I'm trying to have a genuine discussion here with you, but that requires two-way communication. I've laid out what I think to be the issue between our perspectives. If you disagree, that's more than fine, but you've got to give me more than a "you're wrong" if you want to have a meaningful conversation.
From your behavior here you do not strike me a somebody currently ready to have a meaningful conversation on this topic. I'd suggest pointing a few people whose opinions you respect and who have a head for nuance at this discussion. Maybe they can help you.