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Request For Research: Basic Income

blog.ycombinator.com

481–490 of 1001 posts

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#481
> What can startups do to increase prosperity for everyone?

One thing I've been kicking around, though I am not sure yet how it would work, is measuring potential demand for a traditional good or service -- a type of sentiment analysis to find gaps in the market.

When I'm thinking about this problem I tend to imagine market gaps in physical space -- where could people use a sandwich shop or game cafe or a heavy equipment rental, for example.

The traditional route, which seems needlessly wasteful in a world driven by data, is for someone who happens to have capital to come along and start a business either because they /feel/ there is a need, or because a similar business has been started in similar situations, or a similar business is raking in profits -- basically they guess (educated or not) at demand and spend a lot of time and money vetting that guess. Or, even more error prone, because they have a passion and decide to roll the dice. Then it either succeeds or fails to make a profit for a variety of reasons and their test is validated or not.

With kickstarter proving demand for potential goods that can be ordered and delivered, there should be a way to measure spacial demand for a good or service and move the capital required to willing and able people in that area to get it started. Perhaps even collecting information on what particular business practices might have a high likelihood of working...distributed and generalized franchising based on latent demand.

The idea seems particularly relevant in a discussion of basic income. If someone hates their job and are working only to stave off homelessness and starvation or to maintain some basic level of comfort and they are given the means to not worry about that anymore -- well, then they will likely try to figure out how best to improve their situation. What better way than starting a business with a high likelyhood of creating value for your neighbors? It answers the question: what can I do to to have the most impact in my community?

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#483

Things that would help everyone, regardless of income, without depending on a radical restructuring of entitlement spending, that seem like things startups could actually do: * Equally credible alternatives to university education for professions that don't involve students shouldering $100k-$200k in debt based on decisions they have to make when they're 18 years old. * Empirical, blinded, skills-assessment based tur…

Sorry, but all of those sound like things that are going to help people who were already going to be successful to be even more successful. College debt, for example, is a problem for those who were successful enough to get into college into the first place, and who, simply by getting into college, are already increasing their lifetime earnings by millions of dollars. Technological services for K-12 ed is pushing a s…

I think you're right it doesn't help those who don't have a culture of education. I.e. people who "are first in the family to attend college/uni" of which many are minorities but also a great many are poor whites.

But.... It does help a lot of kids who find it hard to afford college/uni while also having other responsibilities.

Those people who sell a pint here and there to afford gas to get to class, etc. It's not an insignificant amount of people.

So chip at this first, then chip away at the abjectly poor or who simply don't think they have a chance at college/uni.

Of course there is always the danger of human nature wanting to claim, I went to uni as told but still can't get a job. That is it's not just a rite of passage, you have to show personal progress.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#484
post #208

I recommend this book: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scandinavian_Unexceptionalism_... From wikipedia: "Allister Heath, deputy editor of the The Daily Telegraph, wrote that the book shows how the “remarkable work ethic” of Scandinavians has been eroded by large welfare states over time." (Of course, don't take wikipedia's word for it-- read the book yourself) My take-away: Heavy socialism has absolutely stifled econo…

For the record, the Telegraph is a right wing newspaper.

This is true (although basic income is not exclusively a left-wing idea). But I was not trying to use his quote as evidence-- I was using it to explain the thesis of the book.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#485
post #213

"What can startups do to increase prosperity for everyone?" I think cheap quality housing is a huge area that would help everyone. Taxes and housing together eat up the vast majority of the earnings most people make. What could make a difference? - applying technology to building denser housing. for example, imagine cheap robotic excavation, so every house and building could bury all their parking lots and long term…

Yes--driving down the cost of housing is one of the things I think about the most. It seems so critical to the whole equation.

Factory-produce modular housing units that fit inside a 40' high cube shipping container. Factory-produce the 88"L x 40"W X 30"H modules and the 4"L x 80"W x 90"H bulkheads that separate them. Each unit would have four internal bulkheads and up to 18 room modules that aren't a 40" wide pass-through space. Each "room" would consist of three or six stacked modules, and each module is small enough to fit through the doors when disassembled. Side doors can be opened on each side of rooms 2 and 4.

On-site construction consists of a concrete foundation pad, steel racks, and an outer weather shell appropriate for the region. Utility hookups are provided for each berth.

When a new housing unit is needed, it arrives in an intermodal shipping container, rolls into an open berth in the rack, is anchored in place, and the utilities are connected. If anyone needs more space, the internal doors and modules can be reconfigured to join multiple units internally.

Current manufactured housing in the US is premised upon hauling the pieces to the site by truck. If housing could also be moved by container ship and stacktrain, it is more easily importable and exportable.

A size standard for home modules opens up a huge aftermarket. Don't like the factory-installed kitchenette or don't cook? Swap it out for an exercise room or workbench or hydroponics garden or nursery or whatever else you may want in its place. It fits. The utility connectors are in the same place.

The number of berths in a rack and the size of the outer weather shell can be different for different housing markets. One near a city might have multiple levels, cramming dozens of units into a single shell with a fashionable brick facade. One far out in the country could have space for as little as just one unit--and it might not even be filled all the time--but it might also have a tornado-resistant outer concrete shell.

If you change jobs, rather than pack up your possessions, you could just secure all your loose items inside and ship your owned housing units to an empty berth in a new rack, across town or in a different city.

The major problem is lack of elbow room. You just can't cram very much living space inside a shipping container, so even if you connect many units, your home still consists of a maze of doors joining a bunch of 48 sq.ft. rooms.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#486

* Solve problems in hiring by hiring all applicants on a first-come, first-serve basis and then evaluating them for X days before recommending the best applicants to a client company. Scale this up by partnering with the government to eliminate traditional unemployment insurance. * Various industries (TV, Print, Social Media) have effectively offered a product with complex infrastructure to the public for low or no c…

Farming is quite a bit more expensive that what you realize. Besides, this model doesn't even make logical sense. Follow with me... 1) Advertising is only worth it if the people who see your ads can and will buy your goods at a large enough rate to give you the needed ROI on those ads. 2) If people are so poor that they need free food then they won't have the means to make point #1 viable.

Your second point on food. Yes, lots of it gets wasted. There are quite a few areas where we can talk about waste and food cost. The best way to cut transportation costs is to just improve farming in places where food is scarce. This is not an easy task, but a much better long term solution in every way measurable. Ethiopia is the shining example of progress in this area. One of the largest wastes of food in the United States is what slides off of our dinner plates and into the trash. This increases demand, which increases prices, transportation cost of both supply and disposal, increased cost in cooking and prep, etc. We could save billions a year as a society if we cut our waste.

Divorce rates are the fault of the people that are married. Marriage, if the vows are followed, is amazing. Married people live longer and have children with lower crime rates. The answer is for people to actually stick to their covenant and make a marriage work. People need to learn to forgive, extend grace, and act selflessly toward their partners. Marriage is no place for rugged individualism, it is truly a team sport. A family where children grow up with both of their loving parents is the ideal situation. Situations are not always ideal, but at least we have something to strive for.

Under the crowd-funding life section... aren't both of these sections essentially just co-ops? Not that they aren't good ideas but I think they do exist already and without the buzzwords.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#487

The problem with basic income is that people need purpose, not charity. Look at the success of programs in Africa that give people the ability to make a living, not a bag of rice. One particularly moving story was about a group that got foot-powered water pumps into the hands of subsistence farmers, who subsequently were able to send their kids to school. At one point, the core purpose of monetary policy and central…

> The problem with basic income is that people need purpose, not charity.

This is based entirely on the assumption that work=purpose, which I think is bogus.

> Look at the success of programs in Africa that give people the ability to make a living...

For many, perhaps most of the poor, simply BEING poor inhibits them from being able to make a decent living. Jobs may not be available, the means to get to a job reliably may not be available, the physical/mental health to sustain a job may not be present and the resources to be treated and rehabilitated are obviously not there.

In effect, the hypothesis is that in a highly developed economy, handing out cash might be the equivalent of "teach to fish" for, say, rural Africa. And even then, at least one study showed that basic income guarantee did amazing things for an african village, increasing education and entrepreneurship (sorry - don't have the link handy, maybe someone else can point to it).

> suffer mostly from hopelessness

On a final note, be careful here... if I have cancer, and I can't do anything, do I suffer mostly from hopelessness or do I suffer from cancer? Hopelessness is a symptom of people suffering from poverty.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#488
post #5

There's a very relevant section in this book ( The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies - http://amzn.to/1KFJ1Iu ) , that I just read last night: > "His view is strongly supported by the work of economist Andrew Oswald, who found that joblessness lasting six months or longer harms feelings of well-being and other measures of mental health about as much as the death of…

Easily solved: Basic income is paid out to people to go and work on infrastructure projects.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#489
post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define poorest. The great society handed out lots of free cash in the 60s and 70s, and it didn't work.

Define great society. If anything, parent's comment is more clear to me than yours. Both are [citation needed], but parent's hints at more detail.

The "Great Society" was Lyndon Johnson's domestic legislative program.

It created the framework for how social services are delivered.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#490
The most important thing that can be done for long-term prosperity is to eliminate almost all forms of debt. Debt ends up making everything cost (at least) 2x as much and is the reason why everyone feels the requirement to be perpetually employed. In the US, we've built an entire lifestyle on debt.

I'm not talking about consumer debt here (though that's a problem too), I'm talking about the debts that are intrinsic to the system used to obtain a high standard of living in the US. Those debts are what keep most people shackled down.

If you want to take a sabbatical because of a series of hard knocks in a short timespan, you can't, because if you stop working, you'll lose everything you own. If someone can take everything from you when you stop giving them money, you don't own it. That's the core problem, the core reason employment is so stressful and the core reason that losing a job is a major life negative.

Want somewhere to live? You gotta pay that house payment and/or rent. Very few "home owners" in the U.S. are actually home owners, they're effectively just renting the house from the bank. Even 30 years after getting their first mortgage, most are not home owners because they've sold and rebought their homes several times over the years.

Want (need) to drive to get somewhere? For a decent car, it'll be $300/mo for 6 years (+ insurance). You might be able to go a few years without a payment, but by year 10, most cars are going to be worn down to the point where they have to be replaced, and you'll have to start making payments on a fresh one.

Want a decent job? OK, we're down with that, as long as you pay your non-dischargeable entrance fee of $50k+ student debt for the privilege. Actual skillset or competence is of little relevance for most professions.

Make all of these things so cheap that they don't require debt, or make these things available in some attainable way that doesn't require debt and allows people to actually own something, and we'll have a huge portion of the problem solved.

Of course, the powers that be really hate it when someone isn't in debt, because debt is literally free money; usury is the most effortless way to earn money in existence. There are a lot of people that make a lot of money by keeping the citizen dependent on them for big, necessary purchases.

Perhaps the government could offer 0% financing on all of these items -- homes, cars, and education. That might be a start to breaking the debt cycle. Another thing that would help is moving back to multi-generational housing and maintaining a strong culture of inheritance.

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