OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

Strongly agree. I think some (not all) of the Trumpian playbook can be wielded very effectively for non-conservative parties, for a few reasons:

- Some executive orders are always flipped as soon as the opposition takes office, but some unilateral changes are much harder for a cyclical/pendulum-swing opposition season to reverse than they are to emplace. We don't know which are which yet. The return-to-office mandate for Federal workers is probably one that'll have a lasting effect--even if un-done in the future, the average prospective Federal worker will consider the job as something that has a significant likelihood of requiring in-person work if the political winds change and that EO is restored.

- Some things really do get permanently addressed within an electoral season, if you have the guts to shotgun through enacting a solution to them. The withdrawal of most U.S. troops from Afghanistan under Biden is a good example of this. So is the "Fork"/RIF/firing wave of Federal employees under Trump. I'm not saying those are both good things, but they aren't "reversible" in the sense that, say, the Global Gag Rule was endlessly reversible.

- Success follows success, as well. Part of the reason that momentum holds such a sacred place in electoral planning is the same reason that Trump's "flood the zone" strategy was effective (again--not good, but undeniably effective): capitalizing on/marketing early unilateral wins of any size results in the public and Congress being more likely to support larger, more durable changes. This is complicated by many factors (media landscape, districting, money), but is broadly true.

To give this more credit than it perhaps deserves: training aside, getting the situational data into the context is a more significant problem here.

Pt's chart is complex/wrong? Gotta ingest that into context.

Chart contains images/scanned and not OCR'd text? Gotta do an image recognition pass.

Diagnosis needs to know what the pt's wearing (i.e. radiation badge)? Gotta do an image recognition pass.

Diagnosis needs to know what the weather's like? Internet API access of some kind. Hope the WAN/API are all working! If they're not, do you fail open or closed?

Patient might be lying? Gotta do video/audio analysis to assess that likelihood--oh, and train a model that fully solves one of the holy grails of computer vision/audio analysis reliably and with a super low false-positive rate before you do. And if it guesses wrong, enjoy the incredibly easy-to-prosecute lawsuit.

Patient might be lying, but the biggest clue is e.g. smell of alcohol on their breath? Now you need some sort of olfactory sensor kit and training for it--a lot more than just "low quality body cam and a mic".

Patient's ODing on a street drug that became abundant in the last few months? Gotta somehow learn about recent local medical/police history that post-dates the training set, or else you might be pouring gas on a fire if you give them Narcan. And that's assuming you know enough to search for information about that drug, and that they didn't lie to you about what they took. Addicts never do that.

Failures in each of those systems bring down the chance of an effective diagnosis, so they need a fairly obsessive amount of model introspection/thinking/double-checking, and humans on standby as a fallback if the AI's less than confident (assuming that LLMs can be given a sense of a confidence level in the future, versus the current state of the art of "text-predict a guess about what your confidence level might be").

Put that all together, and even with the AI compute speed available years from now and a perfectly trained futuristic model that's preternaturally good at this stuff, I'm not sure that that the reliability and, more importantly, the turnaround time of that diagnostic pass is going to be any good compared to a human ER doc.

Of course they do. Most of their platform is built on [appearing] to repudiate coastal elitism and left wing dogma in higher education + globalism with a healthy dose of fuck you because you're you.

And I graciously waited and allowed them to do things that will take decades if not more to repair before deciding they were irredeemable. I had hoped a middle ground and bipartisan ship would be reached, but it's clear to me it won't be. We do not inhabit the same universe at this point, the disdain is mutual.

You’re acting like I’ve always thought about them like this or like I haven't spent years observing and thinking about this to come to my conclusion. You'd do well to listen to your own words about theory of mind. I was raised conservative I voted for Romney. I'm a fan of many of the political platforms they run on now (minus originalism, removing bodily rights, religion), but in practice they do not walk their own talk. The wars, the spending, abandoning neo-liberalism except in word the blatant corruption and disdain for the positions they hold and how they appear on the world stage.

No, I’ve watched their actions for 15 years and moved ever closer to the position that I have nothing in common with them even being ideologically close to a version of their party from 20-30 years ago and they do so blatantly want to destroy the middle class, health, and wealth for anyone outside a small oligarchic class.

I'm pissed because they wear a lot of my ideology as cheap dress to fuck someone.

It's tech bros like you that are to blame for the shortage of radiologists supporting statements since 2016 which state that radiologists will disappear. Your great SOTA LLMs will tell you to walk 5 mins to the car wash instead of taking the car.

An enterprise product is not comparable with the human body at all. A single cell contains hundreds of times more information/entropy in its state than an operating system.