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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#471

Post by roncesvalles »

alephnerd wrote: post #72
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Egypt is aligned with the KSA It’s complicated [1]. My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo. > Already aligned with the UAE Aligning. To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet. > the Pakistan aspect is overstated Pakistan isn’t the cause. It’s the canary. These moves happening in quick succession (strategically, over the last year, and tactically, in the timing of these a…

> My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo Abu Dhabi and Cairo have been misaligned for years since the Sudan Civil War began (UAE backs the RSF and KSA+Egypt back the Army) as well as the UAE backing Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia at the expense of their traditional partner KSA. > To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet. This is as close as it will get. New Delhi doesn't "sign" d…

India is doctrinally non-aligned (being a founding father of the Non-Aligned Movement), and the chance of a completely US-aligned India has always been zero. Even with Russia, its closest "ally" (only by a history of cooperation, not in any formal pact-ratified sense like Russia-China), it maintains only an arms-length relationship.

India is actually the true neutral major power. I don't really count Switzerland because it was obvious it would align with the EU/NATO/US axis when things got hot, as it did in the context of Ukraine-Russia.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#472

Post by United857 »

asa400 wrote: post #348
debo_ wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to the literal constant flow of old men I see driving pristine F150s in the metropolitan center of the Canadian city I live in.

They probably won't buy Honda Civics, but they (or their children, more realistically) might buy the electric equivalent of an F150 if the market produces one that can fulfill what they perceive their needs to be. I just bought a (small, hybrid) truck because I need to do some truck stuff. I 100% would have bought an electric if the market produced one with comparable capability and competitive price, but we're not t…

  U u u

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#473

Post by shykes »

ceejayoz wrote: post #326
don_esteban wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Israeli openly proposed for the Gaza Palestinians to move to Egypt (effectively ethnic cleansing Gaza, their obvious goal), not that long after 7.10. Egypt said 'HELL NO', first, because they don't want to deal with Palestinians (both political and economic nightmare), and second because it would have been viewed as ceding to Israelis and helping them cleanse Gaza, which would be highly unpopular among their popu…

> The Israeli openly proposed for the Gaza Palestinians to move to Egypt Yeah, that's not "wide open". Israel would absolutely be happy with a one-way exit gate.

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#474

Post by shykes »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #454
ceejayoz wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, why? Israel would celebrate. This is directly contradicted by Israel's actions in the Gaza War. Egyptian control of the crossing was not enough, so they took it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/israel-ra...

Israel would object to aid and weapons flows into Gaza. It would be fine with Gazans leaving the Strip. The problem is there are currently zero takers globally for a significant Palestinian refugee population, in part, as other comments have mentioned, due to the history of Palestinian refugee populations in the Middle East. (To my knowledge, Palestinian Americans have been fine and productive members of society.)

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#475

Post by jmyeet »

traderj0e wrote: post #401
jmyeet wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where this idea that OPEC is toothless came from but it's objectively incorrect. Counter example: OPEC was the single largest factor in the inflation shock of 2020-2022. And nobody talks about it. In March 2020 at the start of the pandemic, it looked like the world economy would come to a standstill. Oil futures went into extreme contango, briefly going negative as nobody was taking delivery. So in April…

This is interesting and under-reported. But it doesn't mean that oil would've spiked a lot less without the OPEC cuts, and that's not the same as gasoline costs which depend on refineries too.

Um, how do you figure? You realize that was a 10% cut in global oil supply, right? Of course it's going to spike crude oil prices. It's almost like the US completely stopped producing oil for 2 year (13M vs 9.7M).

There are a number of elements that go into gas prices like additives, refining margin (called the "crack spread") and distribution but crude oil prices are a huge part of that. Also, like anything demand plays a huge role and that means the market's expectation for future supply.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#476

Post by myth_drannon »

shykes wrote: post #460
slibhb wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Virtually all Arabs hate Israel but Arab governments are more varied. The modern Egyptian state is oriented toward close partnership with the US, and a large part of that was peace with Israel post '73. So yes, the UAE could align with both.

> Virtually all Arabs hate Israel This is true, but Emiratis are a notable exception. The UAE may be the only Arab country where Jews are not only allowed to live, but can do so safely without fearing either their neighbors or their government. For example, last year when a rabbi was murdered, the Emirati government reacted forcefully and made a point to sentence the perpetrators to death. Note, the perpetrators were…

By the way that's just Qatari propaganda meant to put a wedge between Israel and Egypt. Qatar(Muslim Brotherhood) hates Egypt (that cracked down on MB) and hates Israel. They paid Netanyahu's advisors to push those lies about Egypt's double game and the cross border tunnels. Netanyahu the clown he is, "leaked" those lies to journalists. Qatar also paid Haaretz journalist to push those lies. The current situation with Egypt is good. They need to pretend to be somewhat cold to satisfy the hostile to Israel population, but there is cooperation and good relationship.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#477

Post by alephnerd »

roncesvalles wrote: post #471
alephnerd wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo Abu Dhabi and Cairo have been misaligned for years since the Sudan Civil War began (UAE backs the RSF and KSA+Egypt back the Army) as well as the UAE backing Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia at the expense of their traditional partner KSA. > To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet. This is as close as it will get. New Delhi doesn't "sign" d…

India is doctrinally non-aligned (being a founding father of the Non-Aligned Movement), and the chance of a completely US-aligned India has always been zero. Even with Russia, its closest "ally" (only by a history of cooperation, not in any formal pact-ratified sense like Russia-China), it maintains only an arms-length relationship. India is actually the true neutral major power. I don't really count Switzerland beca…

Yep. There's nothing wrong with that, but it means US-India relations tend to remain fairly transactional while allowing both autonomy from a strategic standpoint, such as India signing a RELOS with Russia and Pakistan under Munir returning to the American fold at the expense of the Chinese.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#478

Post by shykes »

myth_drannon wrote: post #476
shykes wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Virtually all Arabs hate Israel This is true, but Emiratis are a notable exception. The UAE may be the only Arab country where Jews are not only allowed to live, but can do so safely without fearing either their neighbors or their government. For example, last year when a rabbi was murdered, the Emirati government reacted forcefully and made a point to sentence the perpetrators to death. Note, the perpetrators were…

By the way that's just Qatari propaganda meant to put a wedge between Israel and Egypt. Qatar(Muslim Brotherhood) hates Egypt (that cracked down on MB) and hates Israel. They paid Netanyahu's advisors to push those lies about Egypt's double game and the cross border tunnels. Netanyahu the clown he is, "leaked" those lies to journalists. Qatar also paid Haaretz journalist to push those lies. The current situation with…

I did notice that Al-Jazeera was actively covering this issue. So your explanation would make sense.

What about the military exercise though? Al-Jazeera is eagerly covering it, but it is in fact happening...

I'm thinking that two things can be true at once - Egypt sees Israel as a "soft rival" and will undermine it when it can, without risking the peace itself; and Qatar is actively trying to put a wedge between them. No?

(thanks for the thoughtful discussion).

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#479

Post by aaron695 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#480

Post by wolvoleo »

nkmnz wrote: post #439
wolvoleo wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And religion and marriage really shouldn't have anything to do with one another. Atheists can marry too.

They can. It’s called a civil union. Complaining about marriage laws in Israel in this uninformed way is just an antisemite dog whistle.

A civil union is not the same as a marriage. And I'm not just talking about Israel.
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