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F-35 is built for the wrong war

warontherocks.com

471–480 of 719 posts

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#471
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If China produces 100 times or 1000 times their current numbers (and they can), marginal differences in capability are not going to matter. If china somehow learnes magic and produced 10,000 f16 equivalents and got into a major non-nuclear shooting war with the united states... they'd lose 10,000 planes. At some point there is such a qualitative difference that numbers don't really matter.

You are aware that China is producing two fifth gen stealth fighters, and is flight testing two sixth gen platforms? And that Chinese AAMs are world class? Read up on how Pakistan crushed the Indian Air Force recently flying fourth gen Chinese fighters using their current AAMs.

There is no evidence to show that Pakistan crushed the Indian Air force infact it's the other way around. A lot of Chinese equipment was blown out by Indian Brahmos.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#472
post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two different issues... On one hand, government should not compete with private enterprise because it has many unfair advantages. Imagine paying taxes to subsidize your competition, who is also exempt from regulations that apply to you. That is the kind of corruption that comes from government-run businesses. As for this one: >I’m currently watching an 8-figure park remodeling project happening near home. Instead of…

> On one hand, government should not compete with private enterprise because it has many unfair advantages. Imagine paying taxes to subsidize your competition, who is also exempt from regulations that apply to you. Are there any real examples of a government entity in the US competing with a private enterprise in which it genuinely would have been better for the government entity not to compete? I’m thinking of vario…

>Are there any real examples of a government entity in the US competing with a private enterprise in which it genuinely would have been better for the government entity not to compete?

Probably everything the government touches outside of keeping the peace and helping businesses function. Government schools suck. Government insurance sucks. Law enforcement often leaves a lot to be desired. I think one could make an argument that we'd be better off with a toll road system too, but for the convenience and privacy of not having to pay tolls.

It's easier to argue for government management when a service involves practically monopolizing space, such as a road, or if the project is especially dangerous or expensive (such as utilities or the military). But the fundamental forces of competition are still beneficial even in huge and monolithic projects. Even in cases of projects commonly run by governments, the competition emerges as being between governments instead of being between companies.

>contractors complain when the military fixes their own gear, and this is asinine

I agree, it sucks. I am very pro-market but I think the government should lay down the law in these cases and say that it won't tolerate abusive prices and it demands all the technical data necessary for routine maintenance, if not the entire product.

>It could just be incompetence. I read the construction contract. If I were a contractor, I would not have agreed to the fixed price and the steep late completion penalties without charging two arms and a leg and quoting a very long timeframe.

If credible businesses are putting in lower bids and they get passed up for a stupidly expensive alternative, that reeks of corruption. But there could be requirements or assurances that we don't know about. That's up to you to find out if you are interested in that case.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#473
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure Americans are finding it funny to pay for $3+ a gallon. The entire economy suffers from it.

$3 a gallon is less than a dollar per liter. Do you live in Saudi Arabia or a gulf state? Here are historical real (inflation adjusted) gas prices for the US. You can decide how terrible this is: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1UWwx

I can’t decide if the economy has bifurcated or if these inflation stats are totally bogus.

Diesel is almost $7/gallon here. All the stuff we buy (food, services, electronics) are up 30-100% since the beginning of last year, but federal inflation stats claim 3%.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is asinine, what do you think happens to those institutions when incompetence is what gets rewarded. The real threat to the US military is not the lack of weapons, or that the F35 is not as good or as cheap as it could have been, it's because it is a lumbering bureaucracy full of people who couldn't get better jobs elsewhere.

> it's because it is a lumbering bureaucracy full of people who couldn't get better jobs elsewhere So, raise the amount of money paid to the military so the most qualified candidates apply?

The most qualified candidates for what? 100% of people in the military have passed the ASVAB. And the most capable people in the military are EXTREMELY intelligent.

The problem is unlocking that brilliance in an organization which has LOTS of office politics, cross currents, uncoordinated long term goals, too many interests who get to requirements to every project, etc.

And the biggest problem is that everything the US military decides long term needs sign off by Congress, so there is always a political dimension to every project approval. Congress laughs at the F35 as the “world’s largest jobs program” with components built in just about every member’s district. The A10 is unlikable because Congress wants to keep it around, even though the AirForce thinks it’s cheaper (logistically) and safer to use other aircraft for the role. Not everybody is thinking about the same factors.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like equating a cruise missile with an aerial drone (which is nonsensical). Now I'm not saying defense against UUVs is impossible, but plenty of defenses against torpedoes don't work against them. Note also that part of the approach of drone warfare is sheer quantity. Stopping 1 may be trivial, stopping 5 may be doable, but stopping 20 simultaneous ones might already be too hard to do consistently and repeated…

A drone of this type and a cruise missile are literally the same type of thing, they just occupy different points on the capability spectrum. You assert "plenty of defenses against torpedoes don't work against [UUV]". Based on what? What is this hypothetical property of a UUV that is superior to a torpedo? A UUV with sufficient range and warhead is going to be big and heavy. Long-range torpedos weigh 2 tons each for…

> A drone of this type and a cruise missile are literally the same type of thing, they just occupy different points on the capability spectrum.

You have a "this type" in your mind. I do not. Even then you're wrong. A drone can loiter and is thus not "literally the same type of thing" as a cruise missile or torpedo.

> What is this hypothetical property of a UUV that is superior to a torpedo? [...] It still has to cross some long span of water with enough speed and a large enough warhead and a guidance package capable of finding the target.

The huge advantage of drones (besides relatively low cost) is not how they cover the distance, but their flexibility in getting to the target, striking with high precision. An underwater drone can technically even circle the target before striking it at its weakest point (although this isn't going to work well if the target is at full speed).

> What kind of vessel are you going to use to bring these UUV within range of the target?

Bigger UUVs. Note that 'within range of the target' is also much higher for UUVs versus torpedoes, easily 160km for UUVs. Note that ambushes with these UUVs may also be an option, if they can loiter or just lie on the sea floor.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#476
post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$3 a gallon is less than a dollar per liter. Do you live in Saudi Arabia or a gulf state? Here are historical real (inflation adjusted) gas prices for the US. You can decide how terrible this is: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1UWwx

I can’t decide if the economy has bifurcated or if these inflation stats are totally bogus. Diesel is almost $7/gallon here. All the stuff we buy (food, services, electronics) are up 30-100% since the beginning of last year, but federal inflation stats claim 3%.

Gas is certainly bifurcated. The west coast is paying up to $5.80 and Texas/midwest are paying $3.20 or so. NY and New England is paying a lot, but from Virginia on down, they are paying less. All the midwest is paying close to texas prices except Illinois, which is paying California prices.

Some of that is differences in taxes, but some of it is due to getting gas from different sources. If we had a pipeline from Texas to CA, there would be less bifurcation.

In terms of food being bifurcated, that too is happening, but to a smaller degree.

Basically the entire West coast is suffering from high inflation.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#477
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$25k per flight hour is a lot more than what drones cost

What's crazy is there's lots of videos of Ukranians shooting drones from open-cockpit propeller planes that barely cost more than the drones! I think in a serious drone war we would just have fleets of Cesnas flying around with a person hanging out the door with a shotgun lol.

It’s a cat-and-mouse game. Drones won’t stay ignorant of fighters shooting them down for long.

It’s a lot cheaper to give them a rear camera than to just tolerate them getting shot down indefinitely.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is delusional. The PLAAF is a capable force and innovates more quickly than the USAF. Chinese A2A weapons are very good kinetically, and while EW and stealth would have an advantage, engagement geometry means an 4:1 fight is always going to be costly. We could expect significant attrition in EW and stealth advantage over the first few weeks as their RADARs and seekers adapt.

> engagement geometry means an 4:1 fight is always going to be costly That's not how 6th gen fighter combats work. You get hit by missiles and explode without ever even detecting the opponent. Does china have better stuff than f16s? Sure (and modern f16s are not the same as 1970s f16s which makes my point harder to understand in the first place anyways) but at some point, with some military technologies, you can't be…

That's how your imagination of 5th fighters work (because there are no 6th gen fighters in service), as if they are somehow invisible. This is a misunderstanding of RADAR.

Lower frequency RADAR will pick up F-35s, but not with enough precision to generate a target track. Pilots spend a lot of thought on the problem of signature management.

A Chinese Wedgetail would be extremely dangerous, as it could provide a very good detection, and with a close enough X-band RADAR you will get a target, and then it is up to kinetic escape/EW/decoys. That is a bad situation to be in during a large force engagement.

The PLAAF is of course working on longer range and faster AEW&C and jam resistant data link and expendable sensors. It is just a matter of time.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#480
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you send a swarm and fly a few sacrificial drones them into the airplanes.

Yeah but that drone swarm costs as much as the Cesna so it neutralizes the cost advantage / disadvantage.

A drone swarm can take out a swarm of Cessnas.

Realistically a Cessna single prop is roughly $100k (average between good condition used and some new ones). A Ukrainian interceptor drone is about $2k + cost of munition. And the Cessna requires an airfield, so it is geo-fenced, while an interceptor drone can take off from flat land or the back of a truck.

People need to wake up and realize the economics of war just changed by several orders of magnitude.

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