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The RAM shortage could last years

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Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work at an e-waste recycling company. I have several dozen trays of RAM in my inventory, ~90% of it DDR3. DDR3 was selling as of a month ago, but I haven't tried to sell any RAM since. I'm looking forward to doing a huge one this week.

do you have an online storefront?

We have an Ebay store: https://www.ebay.com/str/evolutionecycling

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#472
post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GC burns far more CPU cycles. Meanwhile I'm not sure where you got this idea about the value of CPU cycles relative to RAM. Most tasks stall on IO. Those that don't typically stall on either memory bandwidth or latency. Meanwhile CPU bound tasks typically don't perform allocations and if forced avoid the heap like the plague.

> GC burns far more CPU cycles Far less for moving collectors. That's why they're used: to reduce the overhead of malloc/free based memory management. The whole point of moving collectors is that they can make the CPU cost of memory management arbitrarily low , even lower than stack allocation. In practice it's more complicated, but the principle stands. The reason some programs "avoid the heap like the plague" is be…

There are (at least) two glaring issues with your analysis. First, the vast majority of workloads don't block on CPU (as I previously pointed out) and when they do they almost never do heap allocations in the hot path (again, as I previously pointed out). Second, we don't use single core single thread machines these days. Most workloads block on IO or memory access; the CPU pipeline is out of order and we have SMT for precisely this reason.

Anyway I'm not at all inclined to blindly believe your claim that malloc/free is particularly expensive relative to various GC algorithms. At present I believe the opposite (that malloc/free is quite cheap) but I'm open to the possibility that I'm misinformed about that. You're going to need to link to reputable benchmarks if you expect me to accept the efficiency claim, but even then that wouldn't convince me that any extra CPU cycles were actually an issue for the reasons articulated in the preceding paragraph.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#473

Something I haven’t been able to reconcile: If AI makes software easier to create, that will drive the price down. How are software companies going to make enough revenue to pay for AI, when the amount of money being spent on AI is already multiples of the current total global expenditure on software? This demand for RAM is built on a foundation of sand, there will be a glut of capacity when it all shakes out.

Analyst says it would require a new $35/month subscription for every iPhone user, or a new $180/month for every Netflix subscriber. Claude Max subscriptions have gone up, but do you think every Netflix user will pay for one?.. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

This is probably the wrong denominator. There are more than a billion white-collar workers. Making them all just 10% more effective would possibly be worth more than $650B/year (~$650/worker).

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As if native apps are any better. Books app on my mac takes 400MB without even having a single book open.

I find that an exaggerated claim, have you really checked they aren't using a webview or some other non-native runtime?

I did't but that's exactly my point.

Native apps are so poorly optimized that they don't offer any advantage over Electron apps.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#475

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

The Radeon VII came out in 2019 as a $700 consumer GPU with an 1TB/s HBM2 memory subsystem which is more than any consumer GPU you can get today, including the high-end ones afaik. At that point in time, there was a whole lineup of AMD GPUs with HBM going down into the midrange. If they could make this stuff and sell it to regular people a decade ago for very palatable prices, why do they come up with the idea that t…

the hardware dump once we're through the bubble is gonna be wild

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#476
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

All of the capital intensive businesses face this issue. Chemicals, Shipping, Semiconductors etc. You get market signals that the demand is there, you acquire the necessary capital, you spend 5 years to build capacity, but guess what, 5 other market players did the same thing. So now you are doomed, because the market is flooded and you have low cash flow since you need to drop prices to compete for pennies. Now you…

I don't know who these "capitalists" are, but generally speaking business regularizes as entrepreneurs learn to read new signals after unexpected market shifts.

It is unlike a socialist system in that there are signals to read in the first place. What, do socialists claim that failure is optimal when you can't even tell if you've failed?

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical - the apps I use either have a) enough lock-in that they don't have the institutional will to optimize or b) a lack of institutional resources to optimize. Basically, the optimizing that can happen is that I ditch heavy tools in favour of lighter ones, and hopefully enough other people do the same to help lighter tools with finances/dev resources.

That lock-in is going to have to be very deep to fend off reverse engineered clones.

Yeah, I mean, if I look at the trashy apps I currently have running, they all do have deep lock-in that makes the reverse-engineered clones impractical or impossible: Teams, Discord, Slack, the Windows RDP app.

If I look at the Activity Manager in macOS, of apps that are less trashy but currently taking up a lot of memory, they mostly aren't apps that I'm willing/able to move away from to save on resource use: Firefox, Safari, 1Password. (For browsers, you can blame poorly optimized websites for a lot of it, but I just don't see anyone rushing to create lightweight clones of websites in order to save users' RAM.)

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#478
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's happening. Cursor 3 moved to rust. A lot of people are using Zed (rust) instead of vscode.

Are you sure about Cursor? I haven't seen anything about that, I think it's still based on VSCode/electron.

No. I saw they rebuilt it with some rust involved. It's no longer a vscode fork.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. I think both AI companies and hardware makers should pay for the damage they caused to us here. They act as a de-facto monopoly and milk us. Why is this allowed?

Allowed? We live in a neoliberal world where corporate monopolies / oligopolies aren’t even remotely regulated. If you try to do even the gentlest regulation of companies people scream about communism and totalitarianism. Unless the regulation serves the monopolies by making it harder to enter the market. It started with raegan, and even parties on the “left” in the west believe in it with very few exceptions.

reagan was not remotely neoliberal (though he was a disillusioned former socialist and union leader) but he did knock liberalism off its perch.

it was clinton who delivered the democrats to wall street and vice versa

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#480
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using a lot less RAM often implies using more CPU, so even with inflated RAM prices, it's not a good tradeoff (at least not in general).

Only if the software is optimised for either in the first place. Ton of software out there where optimisation of both memory and cpu has been pushed to the side because development hours is more costly than a bit of extra resource usage.

That'll stay true for consumer software, because the cost for extra resource usage is not borne by the development house.
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