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System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

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Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#471

Post by sekai »

RivieraKid wrote: post #206
oliver236 wrote: post #12

isn't this insane? why aren't people freaking out? the jump in capability is outrageous. anyone?

I've been increasingly "freaking out" since about 3 - 4 years ago and it seems that the pessimistic scenario is materializing. It looks like it will be over for software engineers in a not so distant future. In January 2025 I said that I expect software engineers to be replaced in 2 years (pessimistic) to 5 years (optimistic). Right now I'm guessing 1 to 3 years.

> I've been increasingly "freaking out" since about 3 - 4 years ago and it seems that the pessimistic scenario is materializing. It looks like it will be over for software engineers in a not so distant future. In January 2025 I said that I expect software engineers to be replaced in 2 years (pessimistic) to 5 years (optimistic). Right now I'm guessing 1 to 3 years.

Tell me how this will replace Jira, planning, convincing PM's about viability. Programming is only a part of the job devs are doing.

AI psychosis is truly next level in these threads.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#472

Post by sigmoid10 »

root_axis wrote: post #464
apetresc wrote: post #191

I've long maintained that the real indicator that AGI is imminent is that public availability stops being a thing. If you truly believed you had a superhuman, godlike mind in your thrall, renting it out for $20/month would be the last thing you would choose to do with it.

That logic makes sense, but them hyping up the model is a sign that this is just another marketing stunt. Otherwise, we wouldn't even be hearing about it rather than a media blitz designed to stoke demand for their dangerous and exclusive world changing super model.

This is the same scheme that OpenAI has used since GPT 2. "Oh no, it's so dangerous we have to limit public access." Great for raising money from investors, but nothing more than a marketing blitz campaign. Additionally, the competitors are probably about to release their models, while Anthropic is still lagging on the necessary infrastructure to serve their old models. So they have to announce their model before the others to stay at least somewhat relevant in the news cycle.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#474

Post by throw234234234 »

girvo wrote: post #195
AstroBen wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it's what they're going for. If they could do it they'd replace all human labor - unfortunately it's looking like SWE might be the easiest of the bunch. The weirdest thing to me is how many working SWEs are actively supporting them in the mission.

Enthusiastically supporting them. It’s quite depressing to watch over the last few years. It’s not like they’re being coy about their aim…

Agree. Anthrophic in particular have been quite clear in what they are trying to do. Every blog post about every new model almost dismisses every other use case other than coding - every other use case seems almost a footnote in their communication.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#475

Post by bloppe »

kay_o wrote: post #258
wolttam wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there are advancements, they have to be described somehow. What if the capability advancements are real and they warrant a higher level of concern or attention? Are we just going to automatically dismiss them because "bro, you're blowing it up too much" Either way these improvements to capabilities are ratcheting along at about the pace that many people were expecting (and were right to expect). There is no appare…

I believe advancements sure. But it is a very boy who cried wolf situation for some of these. There are other companies that behave less in this way, Antrhopic seem very unique in that they love making every single release a world ender

Altman called GPT-2 "too dangerous to release". Google tends to be much more measured even though they're the ones who tend to release the actual research breakthroughs

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#476

Post by sigmoid10 »

senordevnyc wrote: post #457
jasonhansel wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so people can't trick them to attack others' systems under the pretense of pentesting A while back I gave Claude (via pi) a tool to run arbitrary commands over SSH on an sshd server running in a Docker container. I asked it to gather as much information about the host system/environment outside the container as it could. Nothing innovative or particularly complicated--since I was giving it unrestricted access to a…

I thought the consensus was that models couldn’t actually introspect like this. So there’s no reason to think any of those reasons are actually why the model did what it did, right? Has this changed?

This argument has become a moot discussion. Humans are also not able to introspect their own neural wiring to the point where they could describe the "actual" physical reason for their decisions. Just like LLMs, the best we can do is verbalize it (which will naturally contain post-act rationalization), which in turn might offer additional insight that will steer future decisions. But unlike LLMs, we have long term persistent memory that encodes these human-understandable thoughts into opaque new connections inside our neural network. At this point the human moat (if you can call it that) is dynamic long term memory, not intelligence.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#477

Post by amunozo »

kypro wrote: post #371
ash_091 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sources I could read to better understand your concern?

What sources would you even be looking for? I think you're asking the wrong question. It's not like I'm arguing a scientific theory which can be backed by data and experimentation. I can only provide you reasoning for why I believe what I believe. Firstly, I'd propose that all technological advances are a product of time and intelligence, and that given unlimited time and intelligence, the discovery and application o…

You are supposing it's possible to know that much about some things that maybe are not knowledgeable to us, even with these tools. Life is extremely complex, more than it's typically assumed by engineering-minded people. Let's be humble here and acknowledge it.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#478

Post by Rastonbury »

apetresc wrote: post #191

I've long maintained that the real indicator that AGI is imminent is that public availability stops being a thing. If you truly believed you had a superhuman, godlike mind in your thrall, renting it out for $20/month would be the last thing you would choose to do with it.

That's the thing, when that level comes we will never know it's here. The only thing we'll have as evidence is the company who has it will always have a "public" model that is just slightly ahead of all competitors to keep market share while takeoff happens internally until they make big bang moves to lock in monopoly level/too big to fail/government protection to ensure utter victory.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#479

Post by menno-sh »

r0fl wrote: post #430
margorczynski wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is naive to think the government (US or China most probably) will just let some random company control something so powerful and dangerous.

I think it is naive to think that artificial super intelligence will be controlled by anyone. If it is smarter than all humans combined at everything why would any humans collectively control the ai? All the ants in your backyard still make no decisions vs you

You'd probably listen to those ants if they put you in a harness and had a little ant-sized remote control that could just, you know, turn you off.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#480

Post by lelanthran »

cedws wrote: post #101
aspenmartin wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well don’t forget we still have competition. Were anthropic to rent seek OpenAI would undercut them. Were OpenAI and anthropic to collude that would be illegal. For anthropic to capture the entire coding agent market and THEN rent seek, these days it’s never been easier to raise $1B and start a competing lab

In practice this doesn't work though, the Mastercard-Visa duopoly is an example, two competing forces doesn't create aggressive enough competition to benefit the consumer. The only hope we have is the Chinese models, but it will always be too expensive to run the full models for yourself.

> In practice this doesn't work though, the Mastercard-Visa duopoly is an example,

MC/Visa duopoly is an example of lock-in via network effects. Not sure that that applies to a product that isn't affected by how many other people are running it.

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