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OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

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Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#471
post #368
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wheras only profit should matter Profit is money you couldn’t figure out how to spend. During growth, you want positive operating margins with nominal profits. When the company/market matures, you want pure profits because shareholders like money. If you can find a way to invest those profits in new areas of growth, that’s better.

> Profit is money you couldn’t figure out how to spend. Profit is the money showing your business is sustainable. Ever since the ZIRP era US companies keep haemorrhaging money at a rate that is physically impossible to recoup. If OpenAI plans to lose 100+ billion dollars per year for half a decade, what profits are you talking about to offset the losses? > When the company/market matures, you want pure profits becaus…

> Profit is the money showing your business is sustainable.

Notice I said you should have nominal profits.

> Ah yes. Shareholders like money. And not, you know, basic accounting like "we need money to actually pay salaries, pay for equipment and offices etc. without perpetually relying on seeming endless investor money".

All of these are costs that reduce your profits.

A maximally profitable business fires all employees except shareholders, closes every office, stops all RnD, and leases IP or real estate to others on long-term deals that never need to be renegotiated.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#472
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wheras only profit should matter Profit is money you couldn’t figure out how to spend. During growth, you want positive operating margins with nominal profits. When the company/market matures, you want pure profits because shareholders like money. If you can find a way to invest those profits in new areas of growth, that’s better.

Not sure why you’re downvoted. Everyone wants to treat OpenAI like a car wash business where they need to make a profit almost immediately. I don’t know why people can’t understand that the industry is in a rapid growth stage and investing the money is more important than making a profit now. The profits will come later.

> profits will come later

Holy crap, is it the year 2000 again?

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does the GAAP accounting matter if everyone passively buys shares due to the new fast entry rules, which corruptly will force us all to buy into these companies? The fundamentals and true value seem less relevant than ever: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/03/51248353/michael...

For other readers, I want to add some context here. NASDAQ is pondering whether or not to change their NASDAQ 100 index membership rules for IPOs. Currently, there is a three month waiting rule for IPOs. They are proposing (not sure if passed/agree/completed yet) to remove this waiting rule for IPOs. Real question: What is the real impact of this rule change? To me, it seems so minor. Three months is just a blip in t…

The "corruption" allegation is that for, yes, SpaceX, index funds will effectively be "forced" to buy in right away at their IPO price, rather than seeing where they settle before getting the money in. Given that most people have most of their money in index funds, it's sort-of an automatic buy and raises some hackles about a fixed game.

Saying "you can trade the basket yourself minus the names you don't like" is not a real counterargument. Most of us are not going to do that, I'm not going to do that and I'm writing this post right now. John Doe is certainly not doing that.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#474
post #218

Intuitively, it just doesn’t feel like OpenAI has a trillion dollar moat.

Alphabet is worth $3.5 Trillion. What’s their moat?

Much more than Google search. Cloud, Waymo, Verily, Deepmind, stake in Claude. So many bets other than just ads.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why should only profits matter? if i had a killer product today that i just need to sell tomorrow, wouldn't you still invest today knowing i'll probably only start to make money tomorrow (or perhaps next week)? the expectation is that they'll eventually make money. they can't raise forever. only startups are not profitable for a few years. but most companies that have existed for a long while have been profitable and…

not if your product is selling two dollars for one dollar and as soon as you'll start to charge more I'll switch to one of your twenty competitors profit isn't a function of having a killer product, it's a function of having no competition

[dead]

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#476
post #71

feels like an insult to readers to try to pretend that their revenue per month is comparable to google or apples growth when the funding is absurdly different, not to mention inflation itself. I am very much onboard with AI within my workflow. I just don't really see a future where openai/anthropic are the absolute front runners for devs though. Maybe OpenAI does just have the better vision by targeting the general p…

You can host a website on any rackmount server for pennies compared to AWS. But people still use AWS. The market for local models is always gonna be a small niche, primarily for the paranoid.

The goal of web hosting is to provide low latency wide availability to many users.

AI in this context has a very different goal as a tool for individual users.

You wouldn't say that hosting instances of Photoshop on servers and charging for usage is a long term viable business would you? Even if current consumer computers struggled to run Photoshop.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#477

LLMs are definitely a game changing technology, but there is just so much fake money in the market right now (circular deals, paper valuations, etc.) that I cannot take this seriously. At some point the musical chairs will stop and we will all be saying how could we let this happen? Where are the regulators (rhetorical question)?

As with every bubble, we, the people, will pay for it. There will be recession, inflation and general "one step back" to hopefully move "two steps forward" one day in the future.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#479
post #423
post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being profitable isn't the same as sustainable. Even a simple shop isn't profitable for months if it needs to buy stock up front, and run some ads to let people know about it. The money for that comes from the shop owners as an investment. This is the same thing but on a slightly bigger scale, over a longer time frame.

If your shop is unprofitable for years with no chance to recoup any of the costs, you close it, as your investments run out, and investors and banks stop giving you money as you keep losing them. US tech companies just continue operating because "revenue and growth".

> US tech companies just continue operating because "revenue and growth".

US tech companies are some of the most profitable business in history.

Google made over $130B profit last year, Meta 60B.

I'm old enough to have had exactly the same arguments (on Slashdot for Google, here for FB) for both before their IPOs.

It's a uninformed argument and people should know better.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#480
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still a huge amount of revenue for any company. Those $20/month fees are going to triple in a couple yrs. But the VCs expect much much more.

Friends of mine working in AI companies are saying we’ll be lucky if they only triple. More like 10-20x long term, especially for enterprise

People working in AI companies are the last people I'd trust on price forecasting
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