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Global warming has accelerated significantly

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Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#471

Post by culi »

masklinn wrote: post #418
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

> Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions They're literally mentioned by the first IPCC report already.

Early IPCC reports, all the way up to AR5 basically threw their hands up when it came to permafrost emissions. They admitted we didn't have the necessary data yet and for the most part didn't account for it at all in their models

Check out the 1.5C special report. Go to section 2.2.1.2, last paragraph says

> The reduced complexity climate models employed in this assessment do not take into account permafrost or non-CO2 Earth system feedbacks, although the MAGICC model has a permafrost module that can be enabled. Taking the current climate and Earth system feedbacks understanding together, there is a possibility that these models would underestimate the longer-term future temperature response to stringent emission pathways

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/#:~:text=Geophysi...

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#472

Post by tencentshill »

jokoon wrote: post #147

Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt. And I don't think it's going to hurt enough in 10 or 20 years. The pain will come slowly, people won't see it. It's like going back to the middle age so slowly, that the population don't realize or feel it. And honestly, wars and trump are making climate concerns so difficult to think about.

It's going to cause slow, constant refugee crises, which will affect everyone.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#473

Post by maest »

jpadkins wrote: post #133
lambdaone wrote: post #120

This is terrifying, and those fighting against stopping or reducing global warming should at this point be regarded as hostis humani generis

[flagged]

Instead of this lazy deflection, you should suggest what you believe would be an appropriate attitude towards these people.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#474

Post by culi »

loeg wrote: post #452
adrianN wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That unfortunately doesn’t help with ocean acidification.

So what? You still save millions of lives.

The research isn't there. Jury is still out on whether the long term consequences are a net benefit. In the end you're talking about increasing emissions for a temporary decrease in temperatures. And the chemicals we have that are good candidates for albedo modification are quite toxic. Today more than 10% of deaths globally can already be attributed to air quality

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#475

Post by culi »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #462
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

> I’m of the opinion that direct air capture is the primary escape hatch we have for not hitting 3 or even 4C warming in the next 100-200 years Why is it always never 'burn less fossil fuels'. Anything but the oil company bottom line huh?

nobody will champion degrowth because it means less profits

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#476

Post by bko »

daed wrote: post #470
bko wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt. Ironic OECD countries actually REDUCED their emissions based on a peak in 2007 and continue to do so. Not reduced as a percentage of GDP or adjusted for population growth, but reduced in absolute levels. It's all China, but I guess it's cool to blame things on developed countries. There are literally 100k deaths in Europe that can be prevented…

> Ironic OECD countries actually REDUCED their emissions based on a peak in 2007 and continue to do so Any idea what percentage of this reduction is due to offshoring manufacturing?

Keep reading the comment, pretty much the same.

> https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#477

Post by MarkusQ »

zdragnar wrote: post #456
adrianN wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s difficult to scale this to the levels we would need to make a difference.

Depending on the tree, freshly cut wood can have anywhere from 1:3 to 2:1 ratio of water to actual wood fiber. So, unless we want to remove a massive amount of fresh water from the ecosystem, we also need to invest energy in drying out the wood well below natural humidity levels (transport to a desert maybe?) on top of electrifying what is currently a diesel and gas heavy industry (cutting and transporting logs with…

Dumping wet wood--even very, very wet wood in a lake and sinking it to the bottom does not "remove a massive amount of fresh water from the ecosystem". It does not remove any fresh water from the ecosystem.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#479

Post by zeryx »

baq wrote: post #397
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

> major dieoffs in warm latitudes, even for humans, due to exceeding wet bulb limits my extremely pessimistic position is nothing will happen systemically even after the first few such events, and they'll take tens if not hundreds of thousands of lives. I hope writing this out jinxes it.

Are you kidding? It will be Millions easily. It will just take 1 or two blackouts in wet bulb conditions to cause that

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#480

Post by crims0n »

lunias wrote: post #375

It's my understanding that if you look at a large enough historical time window, although warming has accelerated recently (and we are in part to blame); the Earth is still relatively cool compared to historical averages.

I don't know why you are getting downvoted, you are absolutely correct: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/09/1...
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