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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#471

Post by kagakuninja »

stickfigure wrote: post #166
hintymad wrote: post #135

Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?

Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

If The US goes to war against China, we are screwed, because we outsourced our manufacturing to China. We cannot quickly ramp up our manufacture of ships, tanks, aircraft or ammunition. Not only do we lack manufacturing capacity, the entire supply chain is in China / Asia.

In addition, China leads in the critical technologies need for drone oriented warfare, like we are seeing in Ukraine.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#473

Post by 9x39 »

mythical_39 wrote: post #407
mlindner wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd agree with most of what you said, but there is no "raising a Gestapo". ICE has existed for 25 years. And the laws that give it permission to act haven't changed. It has gradually grown over the decades but what it fundamentally does has not. What's new is finally the federal government pushing back against locales that refuse to allow local police to cooperate with federal law enforcement by means of massive infl…

> ICE has widespread support for what they are actually doing Minnesota would like to have a chat with you.

https://www.kttc.com/2026/01/20/americas-pulse-current-ice-a...

About 40-50% are in support, so the parent's accurate. That roughly matches the political divide across the states.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#474

Post by pegasus »

nonethewiser wrote: post #443
parsimo2010 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

I partially agree. But the EU is in a pretty unstable state as incomplete government structure over a collection of peers. "Unstable" does not mean it's going to fall apart. It means it's going to fall apart or coalesce into a single thing (a new country). Or maybe a little of both (a new country with some fringe members leaving). It might not be in 5 or 10 years but it's inevitable. It's not going to operate like th…

I wouldn't describe integrating further to the point of becoming more like the US as "unstable". And that's the most likely outcome, which should make the EU more trustworthy as a partner, not less.

EDIT: by "like the US" I mean federalization. This video explains it well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnarX3HPruA

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#475

Post by ericmay »

epistasis wrote: post #426
ericmay wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reliable how? How would you obtain the currency, and what would you do with it? > when the dollar is propped up precisely on the good will The dollar isn't valuable because of good will. Central banks in Europe, or Japan, or elsewhere don't hold dollars because they want to be nice to the United States. They hold them because the United States is incredibly wealthy, has incredibly deep capital markets, high liquidity…

Unless China wants it to happen, it won't have the reserve currency. It would require big changes in China's part to make it happen. I fully agree with you that they wouldn't open up things like equities markets in a way that could be trusted by outsiders. But I do think they could open up access to the currency.

Right, but what I'm arguing is that the currency isn't going to be that valuable without doing things like opening their markets to outside investors. You could just go with the Euro even if you didn't like the dollar.

That's the thing I keep coming back to. What are the specific features of the currency that make it more valuable than the other reserve currencies that exist today? I don't think China is willing to do what they would need to do add those features, because it requires CCP to loosen control and they can't do that.

If China "democratized" it would unlock a ton of potential and go on to dominate the globe. But doing that requires untenable changes for the CCP so it won't happen.

Plus everyone is going to be mad and distrustful once they invade Taiwan.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#476

Post by saulpw »

RealityVoid wrote: post #464
saulpw wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For us individually. For us collectively it was a horrible thing. We lost the means and incentive to produce anything durable, including a healthy, educated, sustainable society.

Yeah, I've heard this interpretation before that this is the US trying to wean itself off the resource curse bestowed by a strong dollar. I think it's a fun idea, but there is no reason or strategy to this, I'm afraid. Just stupid people doing what they do best, doing stupid things.

I agree, the whole thing is stupid. But, when you don't have a healthy, educated society, they wind up being easily conned into electing stupid greedy people. So it seems that the resource curse may lead inevitably to systemic failure. Good times make weak men.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#477

Post by Esophagus4 »

gyanchawdhary wrote: post #251

I usually read piaeces like this as bullish for the US .. the truth is .. neither the author nor anyone else can really call how this plays out .. but what is clear (and f***g obvious) is that there’s still no country as economically dynamic or creative as the US .. and if not the dollar .. then what realistically takes its place ... the euro, RMB, rupee? None come close yet in terms of depth, liquidity, or trust ...…

In the short run, I agree.

But what I do worry about are the long term consequences of US behavior. Even the largest empires aren't on top forever (even before Trump, China was investing heavily in tech and has made significant inroads. India is developing, too. Who knows?). There may be no country as economically powerful today, but tomorrow is a new day. These shifts don't happen in the short term, but over decades, this could be a big problem for the US if our approach continues this way.

A business goes bankrupt slowly, then all at once. I worry that we are speed running the "slowly" part of our journey.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#478

Post by [deleted] »

echelon wrote: post #371
RealityVoid wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, the idea of Trump making geopolitically informed decisions is so out of the realm of my perception of reality I don't even know how to engage with you. Trump is a narcissistic idiot that you voted into power. Your geopolitical direction is dictated by his narcissistic whims. "National security reasons Greenland" or "EU collaboration with China" or whatever is exactly what I initially said - sane washing a l…

I have a great interest in geopolitics. I didn't vote for Trump, and I already told you this is coming from within the DoD. These are military decisions. These are 50-year plans. Here I was 10 months ago and two years ago saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43505524 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36896699

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#479

Post by WarmWash »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #263
WarmWash wrote: post #136

Trump is a populist president who sees the value of US exports (on the back of blue collar work) being more important than global dollar dominance. This plays hand in hand with his championing of tariffs (foreign goods become more expensive) and hostility towards immigrants (apply upwards pressure on domestic wages). If you cannot see this, or cannot believe it, you should probably check if you are in a ideological b…

The EU is not going to move into China's basket, not if you mean using the yuan as a reserve currency. There's too much political risk - the value is at the control of political decisions by the CCP.

The EU is going to have to (very painfully) grow legs then.

The fact that the US provided the majority of weaponry, and half the money to Ukraine should have been shocking wake up call to every European. But instead the vibe seems to be "Americans are so dumb to live the way they do".

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#480

Post by BatteryMountain »

snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

The bro's in the whitehouse is using their mouthpieces to create a volatile market, thus gaming the system with pump & dumps. They are stealing from everyone in a sense.
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