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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#471

Post by treis »

dgellow wrote: post #425
treis wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's the opposite. These were announced 9 months ago and none of the doomsday predictions have come to pass. There's been major impact to some things but for the most part the economy has hummed along without a blip. Certainly not the everything in Walmart is going to get 34% prognostications that some were making: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43561253

Have you checked the USD value versus other currencies? It's not going well

For the Euro, lower than last year, higher than 2021, lower than 2017, higher than 2014, much higher than 2008...

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#472

Post by dariosalvi78 »

shaky-carrousel wrote: post #66

There's an entire world to trade with. If the Americans choose to shoot themselves in the foot, we won't be the ones paying for the bandage. Also, it's deeply naïve to assume tariffed countries would absorb the cost. Why would they? It's like going into a shop and asking for a discount because you just took out a loan. Why would the shop give you a discount for something you inflicted on yourself? And what makes you…

next should be the dollar and US bonds, then the game is done

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#473

Post by amelius »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

> What were you thinking? What was going through your heads? I'm genuinely curious.

See also Brexit.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#474

Post by lostlogin »

wjfuu32984 wrote: post #445
rootusrootus wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We honest users of the emdash are sad at LLMs making it unwelcome.

Most honest users of the em-dash use it in pairs. I have never — not once — seen an LLM use it in pairs.

Isn’t that an endash? - versus —?

Something weird is going on, on iOS I can type either but they look the same in my comment.

Edit: Only before pressing reply. Once posted they look different.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#475

Post by majormajor »

wjfuu32984 wrote: post #445
rootusrootus wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We honest users of the emdash are sad at LLMs making it unwelcome.

Most honest users of the em-dash use it in pairs. I have never — not once — seen an LLM use it in pairs.

Yeah, LLMs seem to use it closer to a semicolon than a set of parentheses, which seems a bit more "fancy"/"inauthentic" IMO.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#476

Post by irishcoffee »

vjekm wrote: post #447
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of purity test is why the left cant win right now. Anyone who does a wrong-think is shitcanned and othered. Im gonna put a theory out that I havent seen here yet, a lot of people voted for Trump because they got dunked on by leftist Twitter, told they were racist/fascist/whatever for having an opinion like "communism is bad", and now comes a guy who wont back down and who legit makes them cry liberal tears.…

That's not a purity test, it's just math.

Curious how it was a vote for trump and not harris. If harris had won, would a 3rd party vote have been for harris?

Because if that is true, you're re-writing the rules of your "personal voter math" to fit your narrative, and if it isn't true, your "personal voter math" === your opinion, which isn't really useful.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#477

Post by NetMageSCW »

CGMthrowaway wrote: post #397
wasabi991011 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are many natural economic reasons for GDP-per-capita to vary between jurisdictions (e.g. places rich in oil and gas tend to have high GDP-per-capita figures). However, it is increasingly being recognized that tax havens, or corporate tax havens, have distorted economic data which produces artificially high, or inflated, GDP-per-capita figures. > ... > In 2017, Ireland's economic data became so distorted by U.…

What are you saying then, that you wouldn't want to live in Monaco (assuming you had median Monaco income)? That you think large oil & gas resources is good (Venezuela)? I'm struggling to figure out which side you're on

Thinking there is a side to be on is evidence of the problem.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#478

Post by intended »

floren wrote: post #382
throw101010 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can, and I've specifically said "guilty/liable", meaning that people will go to the highest court available to them to defend their rights. If in the last instance they are still found guilty/liable, they should suffer the consequences I've mentioned. These legal decisions, by multiple courts/juries, if you can't trust them anymore you have already lost in terms of democracy/republic. I still believe the SCOTUS is…

"Yelling fire in a theater" was the reasoning used to shut down anti-war protesters 100 years ago and, IIRC, charge them with sedition. It's not a good example.

If you are alluding the Holmes’ judgement, he spoke not simply about free speech, but about actions in service to a market place of ideas.

His argument was in defense of the process to uncover truth.

Given that Fox has clearly said they cannot be taken seriously, and that they were from inception created to muddy the waters and wage war for political gain, they are an enemy to the process that was envisioned back in that era.

If someone is demonstrably selling false goods, and multiple sources have evidenced this, as has a court of law, should that all be dismissed because every single individual in America has not taken the time to look at the evidence?

At some point you abdicate roles and responsibilities to others, so that they can do the job of ensuring that a fair debate takes place.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#479

Post by mschuster91 »

lovlar wrote: post #323
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

One of the main reasons we end up with populist leaders who make decisions not in the interest of their population, but in service of their own pursuit of power, is social media and the attention economy. If people stopped spending hours each day scrolling through Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook feeds, media incentives would change. Journalism would become more thorough and responsible, rather than optimized for outr…

> Journalism would become more thorough and responsible, rather than optimized for outrage and clicks.

For that we would need a new funding model for journalism. Local journalism (i.e. local newspapers, radio and TV stations) used to be financed by classifieds and ads. Classifieds are long since gone off to the Internet and ads have been replaced by Google Maps plus Facebook, so there's no monetary stream - and as a result of that, there's barely anyone left holding local politicians and companies accountable. Yes, some places have "citizen journalists" and bloggers, but these usually do not have the funds to pay for legal teams and court proceedings, so they usually only target government stuff.

Something like taxpayer-paid media is way too easily corruptible by the government, just look at Hungary for the worst possible outcome. "Mandatory contribution" systems like the BBC or Germany's public broadcasters aren't that easily corruptible, but it still happens - just watch the shitshow every few years here in Germany when the contribution needs to be raised.

It's an all-around mess.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#480

Post by wjfuu32984 »

lostlogin wrote: post #474
wjfuu32984 wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most honest users of the em-dash use it in pairs. I have never — not once — seen an LLM use it in pairs.

Isn’t that an endash? - versus —? Something weird is going on, on iOS I can type either but they look the same in my comment. Edit: Only before pressing reply. Once posted they look different.

You're right, I had a similar issue with the form.
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