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IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

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471–480 of 985 posts

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#471

"It is 1958. IBM passes up the chance to buy a young, fledgling company that has invented a new technology called xerography. Two years later, Xerox is born, and IBM has been kicking themselves ever since. It is ten years later, the late '60s. Digital Equipment DEC and others invent the minicomputer. IBM dismisses the minicomputer as too small to do serious computing and, therefore, unimportant to their business. DEC…

What does that have to do with the current CEO's assessment of the situation?

IBM sees the funding bubble bursting and the next wave of AI innovation as about to begin.

IBM was too early with "Watson" to really participate in the 2018-2025 rapid scaling growth phase, but they want to be present for the next round of more sensible investment.

IBM's CEO is attempting to poison the well for funding, startups, and other ventures so IBM can collect itself and take advantage of any opportunities to insert itself back into the AI game. They're hoping timing and preparation pay off this time.

It's not like IBM totally slept on AI. They had Kubernetes clusters with GPUs. They had models and notebooks. But their offerings were the absolute worst. They weren't in a position to service real customers or build real products.

Have you seen their cloud offerings? Ugh.

They're hoping this time they'll be better prepared. And they want to dunk on AI to cool the playing field as much as they can. Maybe pick up an acquisition or two on the cheap.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They have great R&D but just can’t make products" Is this just something you repeat without thinking? It seems to be a popular sentiment here on Hacker News, but really makes no sense if you think about it. Products: Search, Gmail, Chrome, Android, Maps, Youtube, Workspace (Drive, Docs, Sheets, Calendar, Meet), Photos, Play Store, Chromebook, Pixel ... not to mention Cloud, Waymo, and Gemini ... So many widely adopt…

They come up with tons and tons of products like Google Glass and Google+ and so on and immediately abandon them. It is easy to see that there is no real vision. They make money off AdSense and their cloud services. That's about it.

It annoyed me recently that they dropped support for some Nest/Google Home thermostats. Of course, they politely offered to let me buy a replacement for $150.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does that have to do with the current CEO's assessment of the situation?

[flagged]

You definitely want to be standing in front of a chair when the music stops.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#474
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I'm not even sure what IBM does these days. Seems like one company that has slowly been dying for decades. but when I look at their stock, its at all time highs lol no idea

They make business machines, internationally.

They are in the business of international machinations.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#475

Interesting to hear this from IBM, especially after years of shilling Watson and moving from being a growth business to the technology audit and share buyback model.

also because the market (correctly) rewards ibm for nothing, so if they’re going to sit around twiddling their fingers, they may as well do it in a capex-lite way.

I'm still flumoxed by how IBM stock went from ~$130 to $300 in the last few years for essentially no change in their fundamentals (in fact, a decline). IBM's stock price to me is the single most alarming sign of either extreme shadow inflation, or an equities bubble.

Why do you say the market correctly prices it this way?

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#476
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They have great R&D but just can’t make products" Is this just something you repeat without thinking? It seems to be a popular sentiment here on Hacker News, but really makes no sense if you think about it. Products: Search, Gmail, Chrome, Android, Maps, Youtube, Workspace (Drive, Docs, Sheets, Calendar, Meet), Photos, Play Store, Chromebook, Pixel ... not to mention Cloud, Waymo, and Gemini ... So many widely adopt…

I think the sentiment is usually paired with discussion about those products as long-lasting, revenue-generating things. Many of those ended up feeding back into Search and Ads. As an exercise, out of the list you described, how many of those are meaningfully-revenue-generating, without ads? A phrasing I've heard is "Google regularly kills billion-dollar businesses because that doesn't move the needle compared to an…

That is because the DoubleClick parasite has long infected the host.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#477
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You expect somebody to be heavily invested currently and also completely openly pessimistic about it?

Yeah I was going to say the same thing ha. I get what they’re (the commenter) saying, but one could also argue IBM is putting their money where their mouth is by not investing.

I suspect the reality is that they missed the boat, as they have missed tens of other boats since the mainframe market dried up. I guess you could argue they came to the boat too early with their pants on backwards (i.e. Watson), and then left before it showed up. But it’s hard to tell from the outside.

Maybe that will turn out to be a good decision and Microsoft/Google/etc. will be crushed under the weight of hundreds of billions of dollars in write-offs in a few years. But that doesn’t mean they did it intentionally, or for the right reasons.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#478

Reminds me of all the dark fiber laid in the 1990s before DWDM made much of the laid fiber redundant. If there is an AI bust, we will have a glut of surplus hardware.

The dark fiber glut wasn't caused by DWDM suddenly appearing out of nowhere.

The telcos saw DWDM coming -- they funded a lot of the research that created it. The breakthrough that made DWDM possible was patented in 1991, long before the start of the dotcom mania:

  https://patents.google.com/patent/US5159601
It was a straight up bubble -- the people digging those trenches really thought we'd need all that fiber even at dozens of wavelengths per strand.

They believed it because people kept showing them hockey-stick charts.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#479

> In an October letter to the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recommended that the US add 100 gigawatts in energy capacity every year. > Krishna also referenced the depreciation of the AI chips inside data centers as another factor: "You've got to use it all in five years because at that point, you've got to throw it away and refill it," he said. And people think the clima…

If we moron our way to large-scale nuclear and renewable energy rollout however..

Guess who's going to pay nothing for power? Hint: it's not you, and it's not me.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#480
post #421
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How different is this from rental car companies changing over their fleets? I don't know, this is a genuine question. The cars cost 3-4x as much and last about 2x as far as I know, and the secondary market is still alive.

I think it's a bit different because a rental car generates direct revenue that covers its cost. These GPU data centers are being used to train models (which themselves quickly become obsolete) and provide inference at a loss. Nothing in the current chain is profitable except selling the GPUs.

> and provide inference at a loss

You say this like it's some sort of established fact. My understanding is the exact opposite and that inference is plenty profitable - the reason the companies are perpetually in the red is that they're always heavily investing in the next, larger generation.

I'm not Anthropic's CFO so i can't really prove who's right one way or the other, but I will note that your version relies on everyone involved being really, really stupid.

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