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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#471

Post by BenGosub »

cal_dent wrote: post #62

I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbin…

IMO the shift towards AI was very detrimental to the job market, because every company started to work on their AI strategy and not on their core competencies. This has resulted in most companies failing to materialize their AI strategies, while burning their cash. One of the reasons for this is that the average company competes against Goliaths that have infinite funding.

At first many companies stopped developing mobile apps and I think mobile app devs were the first hit. Second, the frontend developers were hit because of how the AI can generate good enough websites, however, they aren't hit as hard as the mobile developers.

This has spread into most parts of the stack with a variable impact.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#472

Post by bluGill »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #383
reactordev wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was going to say this. Money comes, money goes, that’s life. Ideally you’re smart enough to save and invest to weather these storms but for those (like myself) that are still working hard post 40, we know it’s all part of the game. I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you.

> I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you. 401k max is $24,500. How much do you expect a person to earn to be able to max it out? And what percentile income is that at the bottom and top of the age range you consider “young”? https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-by-age-calculator/ Tldr: you are telling almost every 20 to 30 year…

A younger person shouldn't max out their 401k unless they are rich. When you are young time works for you and so a maxed out 401k is a very large retirement in the future (which you might not even live to see!). The max is useful for older people who didn't start young.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#473

Post by bluGill »

aydyn wrote: post #309
nradov wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. It's not different. Money in the tech industry has always chased the hype cycle. We're approaching the peak of inflated expectations for LLMs and then in a few years the AI industry will crash into the trough of disillusionment. That doesn't mean that LLMs are useless but in many sectors of the real economy they will have only a slow and limited impact. https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-h…

Its just so weird how demonstrably insane the hype cycle this time around is. Everytime I think ChatGPT and Gemini are improving, it hits me with some monstrously stupid hallucinations. Here's how my conversation with GPT 5.1 went this afternoon: >Can you please provide a reference for the assertion you just made >Sure, here it is: > 404, please double check > I apologize for the mistake, I have double checked, here…

The hype cycle was just was weird every other time too.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#474

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

fooker wrote: post #320
matwood wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In GA, after taxes your take home would be ~125k. So you think someone can live in a big city like ATL for 25k/year? What if they have a family? Ok, are you assuming their spouse is also in tech and making at least similar? The 125k also doesn't have healthcare deducted yet. Some of the comments on this thread highlight just how disconnected many people were/are from everything outside of the FAANG bubble.

If you live in an expensive city and do not have a proportional salary, obviously you are going to save less. > Ok, are you assuming their spouse is also in tech and making at least similar? Yes, suppose spouse contributes to household expenses, but assume separate savings and investments for this calculation. Do you see you'd easily get to 100k saved? The difference between having a large fraction of your savings in…

> If you live in an expensive city and do not have a proportional salary, obviously you are going to save less.

I assure you that my hometown in South GA (a cheap city) didn’t have $170K a year developer jobs.

A friend who moved to Columbus GA after college in 1997 I doubt is making $170K now.

I know my friend who still lives in Atlanta and is a lead developer at Home Depot (one of the few F500 companies based in Atlanta) just crossed around $170K and he has been there 10 years.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#475

Post by lazide »

yodsanklai wrote: post #395
lvl155 wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s admirable is that you’ve actually applied to jobs below your pay grade. Most people won’t because doing that grind in your 40s is actually hard especially if you have kids.

So what these people do if they can't find a job?

It’s rarely good. Are you sure you want to ask that question?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#476

Post by bluGill »

reactordev wrote: post #110
bluGill wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard that story every few years for the last 30. I know when it is your personal situation things are hard, but your story is nothing new and people recover. Some get back into whatever their degree was, others start a new career and never do. this will happen again.

I was going to say this. Money comes, money goes, that’s life. Ideally you’re smart enough to save and invest to weather these storms but for those (like myself) that are still working hard post 40, we know it’s all part of the game. I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you.

That advice isn't correct for someone who is just finishing school now. They need to stay alive in a down ecconomy where they can't find a job.

In a couple years when things recover (or at least they find a job) it starts to be good advice. Even then I question max 401k - time works for the young and so a maxed 401k makes for too much money in retirement and not enough to enjoy now. Save for retirement yes, but max is too much when you are young - and if you keep saving will always be too much. Max 401k is good for the rich, or those who didn't start young and so their accounts are way behind.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#477

Post by matwood »

ta12653421 wrote: post #358
matwood wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

45 minutes is crazy. I have a chicken and rice dish I can make in 20 minutes (yes, I've timed myself because I'm weirdo and enjoy those chef shows). It takes 20 minutes because that's how long the rice takes. It can be faster if I use shrimp instead of chicken (more expensive though) and noodles instead of rice. It also makes ~3 servings.

Wow, i got downvoted for complaining about my cooking times on HackerNews, this is a real innovation: so: - 5 min walk to supermarket - 10 min in there - 5 min walk back home - washing & cutting wedgetables 7 - 10 min - maybe cutting some meat: 5 min on top - eating 5 - 10 min - cleaning up the kitchen 5 min

Haha...I didn't downvote you, but 45 minutes to cook seemed crazy to me unless you're making something new or complicated or you're socializing. You also kept eating separate from cooking in your first post.

I don't count the walk to the supermarket since even if you eat out almost every meal, you still tend to need to go to the grocery for items either way. And if you eat out, you still have to go there and back.

Cutting should be in parallel with cooking. Similar to cutting, cleaning should also be in parallel with cooking. For example, my knife and cutting board are washed, dried and put away before my sauce finishes simmering down.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#478

Post by lazide »

fogj094j0923j4 wrote: post #424
reactordev wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who else is responsible for you? You have two options. Continue to point fingers and complain and be broke, or start putting $100/mo in VOO and save what little money you have for your future? I know it sucks. I know income inequality is huge. I know the only way out of this is to put in sweat equity. I know the only way to put food on the table is to have a second job at a gas station. I’ve been there. However, as m…

save and invest only makes sense if you can afford to not pull all savings every 3-5 years due to some unfortunate life event I feel like. I'm pretty well off but my friends are in that siutation

And how would they have fared without the money?

Some folks I know died in those situations.

That is why it is so important to save and invest.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#479

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

cwbriscoe wrote: post #296
ahtihn wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, just save 100k out of your 170k comp, that's totally how normal people operate. And not only that, also pick the right stocks rather than just sticking everything in an index! Just magically turn 10x 100k into 10M!

I haven't got to 10m yet, but I saved 70-80% of my take home pay since ~2008 and I have enough to quit at any time and live the rest of my life without working. That is just by investing in the 3-fund portfolio and without the crazy SF salaries.

No one knows you here. Give some real numbers. How much are you paying for housing? What’s your gross pay?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#480

Post by CalRobert »

bluGill wrote: post #461
CalRobert wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you save for retirement, you will be outbid for housing by those who are not saving.

Only if you bid on the same houses. Bid on a smaller house. Don't forget too that inflation works for you! If you save and get in a nice house early and the STAY THERE (I can't emphasize enough how important this is - sometimes life forces you to move, but avoid it), your payments measured against inflation will go down - just put that difference into a 401k (that is don't do a cash out refinance along the way as so…

Right, I am fortunate enough to be a homeowner but you do understand that telling a 30 year old with 4 roommates to “bid on a smaller house” is a bit tonedeaf, do you not?
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