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Harnessing America's heat pump moment

heatpumped.org

471–480 of 571 posts

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#471
post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which to me is funny, when the electricity prices will clearly not rise when there is solar energy production from said panels. But might in other times.

Batteries for load shifting a few hours mitigate that quite a bit and are getting cheaper fast.

I have never had a prime time surcharge so I can’t do that trick. Think it’s because my baseload here is nuclear.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#472

I've got to throw out an obvious explanation. A third of the country rents. Renters pay the utility bills. Landlords pay for appliance upgrades. Why would the landlord put any effort into upgrading appliances when the cost of not upgrading them is borne by the renters? I've never rented at a place where they didn't want to fix broken equipment with the cheapest possible replacement. And no renter would ever consider…

Then why aren’t they in 2/3 of houses

I listed a reason that impacts a third of houses. I didn't write an essay because the article lists plenty of others. It was just weird that they never mentioned the misaligned incentives.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#473

I've got to throw out an obvious explanation. A third of the country rents. Renters pay the utility bills. Landlords pay for appliance upgrades. Why would the landlord put any effort into upgrading appliances when the cost of not upgrading them is borne by the renters? I've never rented at a place where they didn't want to fix broken equipment with the cheapest possible replacement. And no renter would ever consider…

That doesn't square with the fact that new rentals are built with granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Tenants do shop around on the basis of amenities.

The combination with air conditioning and dehumidifying is genuinely compelling for the simplicity. Especially in new construction.

But these things trickle down to renters last. And if the landlord installs it, you bet your ass the rent is going up more than your savings on electricity.

Lose lose lose, if it gets installed then the current residents probably get priced out anyway. It eventually trickles down but we could do so much better.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#474
post #294

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

Of the $20k, let's assume $5k is the hardware. Now $15k is the work. Let's consider the installation a highly skilled job, commanding $100/hour. This is 150 hours, or a tad more than 6 business days for a team of 3, working with full load 8 hours a day. Does a split system indeed take so much work? What is so effort-intensive?

That’s just how US HVaC places price. It’s a racket. I got 45k quotes for 5k of hardware for an 8 hour max job. Good reason to learn DIY

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#475

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

Some are trying to cut HVAC install costs in half, and a lot of people are already working on it including Jetson (where the author works) and disclaimer my company Electric Air.

Average install is about $20K in California (varies by state). Here’s how that usually breaks down:

- Equipment: $3–5K for a basic swap (some go up to $10K for single system)

- Direct labor: $3–4K (about 15–20%)

- Materials: $2–3K

- Permits and testing: around $1K total

That leaves about a 45% margin to cover overhead:

- Indirect labor: $2.5K (installers when not installing, install managers, attending city inspector visits, call backs when installers make mistakes)

- Sales: $2K (around 10%)

- Project management: $500

- Trucks: $500

- Misc costs: $1.5K (insurance, software, payment processing, etc.)

Total overhead: $7K: Net margin: 10%

10% net margin at the end of the year isn't egregious.

That’s how a typical small-mid HVAC shop runs. The best HVAC shops can make these numbers be much more competitive. How do we make it better:

- Bulk order equipment

- Streamline direct labor

- Use virtual site visits instead of in-person sales calls

Do all that and you can bring a $20K install down close to half, while paying installers better and speeding up electrification.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#476
post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you do the installation yourself? In my country i have to make a HVAC technician come to check the installation and sign a paper before i can start mine (200€ for a 15 minutes job, but it's less than the 2-4k it would cost to not do it myself) [edit] i say that because my hardware is 2.5k euros, so ~3k¯dollars, so we probably have the same high end stuff, and i guarantee you it's not hard to install, and it can b…

Central air system with indoor blower & outdoor condenser generally don't come with pre-charged lines so self-install without certification isn't really an option in US.

It's not just certification/permitting. The manufacturers often state that the unit must be verified to be installed by a qualified technian or the warranty is void.

Around here anyway, I was getting quotes of 20k for the install & equipment of a central air handler and the outdoor unit.

I'd be dead before the thing paid for itself in electricity cost savings. $20,000 ÷ (~90yrslife - 40yrsold) = $400 / year of neccesary savings to break-even as my casket is lowered into the ground.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#477
post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The equipment is actually a lot cheaper if you’re a pro - the DIY pre-charged line-set adds about $500 over an equivalent unit. Pulling a vacuum and adding coolant is not hard, just requires specialized tools that still aren’t that expensive. I mentioned warranty and insurance. You don’t need to “schedule workers” if you are owner operating. Maybe you want a (non-skilled) helper to speed up the install, but you absol…

Devils advocate here, it cost me ~$1500 in equipment to buy the vacuum pump, vacuum gauge, nitrogen air tank to flush the lines and pressure test, pressure manifold set and gauge, air lines, good flaring tool, copper bending tool, schrader valve pulling tools, various air tools, and a book on mini split installations. Then it took me 2 days between pouring concrete pad for the heat pump, installing the heat pump and…

There is a 0.00000% chance of getting into EPA trouble installing one minisplit. You got crews dumping 5 a day into a bucket of water all over and no one will answer a report

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically yes, in practice no. There is (according to my sensors) a fairly large CO2 increase inside a room when a modern furnace (with external exhaust) is running. I've confirmed this with several units (all made in the last 10 years), and it's not that the windows are closed - when the furnace turns off, the CO2 drops. And it's not that the exhaust is placed in a bad spot either.

> There is (according to my sensors) a fairly large CO2 increase inside a room when a modern furnace If this is happening, then you shouldn't be using that furnace/room! Something beyond the furnace is not configured right.

Could also just be the furnace. Incomplete combustion conditions can give rise to the symptoms mentioned here.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#479
post #392

Regarding the crazy prices - it’s structural. In Asia, manufacturers sell direct or through highly competitive retail channels and the installers really only have to know minisplits. Minisplits in the US get sold by the brand -> distributor -> dealer (contractor) -> homeowner with each step being a 20% market up. Sometimes there is even a master distributor in there AND usually there is a “rep group” taking points to…

I recently got a Mr. Cool DIY minisplit at Costco for $1600. I called an independent electrician to run the wiring for $200 and he helped me install the thing for another $200. So I got a fully installed minisplit for $2k and it works great.

Did the same thing except saved the $400 and did it in an afternoon.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#480

Heat pumps are so _ordinary_ here (Central Europe), im always a bit surprised how skeptical folks in the US and UK seem to be about them

Most UK housing stock is poor quality, old and draughty. Pre-req of switching is fixing that. Then, when you've got a nice hermetically sealed house, you need to solve fresh air, which is another cost. Labour is extremely expensive in the UK and tradespeople are poor quality and swindlers (sorry, it's true 95% of the time).

And most people don't have £10k+ to drop on upgrades

We're not used to needing aircon, so the whole concept is a bit foreign

Electricity is expensive (0.31 EUR/kWh)

Plus, we've been burned by governments pushing "green" things:

- They scammed us with cavity wall insulation, which has caused some serious structural and expensive issues. It was inappropriate for many houses and a ton of conmen popped-up to take government money with no fucks given

- Diesel was sold as 'green'

- They had a scheme pushing loft insulation but the installers often just threw rolls of insulation into the loft and ran way (not even kidding)

Basically, multiple governments have created just about the /worst/ possible history and conditions to get people on board with heat pumps

I have a very small, draughty house and spend ~800 EUR a year on gas (heating + hot water + hob). Not ideal but I'm still running on the gas boiler that came with the house 10 years ago that's only had ~300 EUR of maintenance spent on it. The house gets hot, I can have boiling hot showers whenever I want. If anything goes, wrong, I can all any of 30 people to come fix it

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