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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#471

Post by sokoloff »

squidbeak wrote: post #467
sokoloff wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Energy, raw materials, and logistics still remain. I don't think we'll ever get to a place where there isn't some input to a production process that is not infinite and free.

You don't see full automation with robotics as a possible outcome?

Theoretically possible? Maybe (but still an extremely slim chance).

Practically possible? No. People (and countries) own land. Raw materials for robots comes from land. Energy for robots consumes land. Farming food requires massive inputs beyond just the land and energy (but also needs those).

I don’t imagine we’ll get to a world where my great-great-great^20-grandkids can hold out their hand and have a plate of steak and potatoes (or the then-equivalent) placed into it for free, anytime they want.

The expense of production and on-demand delivery of just a simple plate of steak and baked potato will not ever get to zero. If we can’t even get that simple of thing for free, I don’t believe in a world without the notion of money.

Expand that to even better dining, vacation, and leisure/recreational activities and I think the argument becomes even more solid that some form of rationing/limiting will be in effect and there will be a unit/notation of ration and trade that will be indistinguishable from money.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#473

Post by illuminator83 »

javierluraschi wrote: post #142
akagusu wrote: post #97

The big question is what "society" he is talking about? Is it the "society" that includes all people, or the "society" that includes only rich people?

It will benefit all people but it will disproportionally benefit more rich people.

The wealth gap widening is quite independent from AI being involved. A natural progression which was always happening and continues to be happening. Entil some sort of catastrophe reshuffles the cards. Usually a war or revolution. The poor simply rising up or a lazy and corrupt ruling class depriving their country of enough resources and will to defend itself that some outside power can take it.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#474

Post by bluefirebrand »

scotty79 wrote: post #297
intended wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO - Money will NEVER stops making sense. Money is a cheap way to translate unlike objects. Cows to art, labor to goods. Green to triangle. Money (or something) will always exist, because it is a needed lubricant for transactions.

> Money (or something) will always exist, because it is a needed lubricant for transactions. So it's only useful for as long as you have the need for transactions.

> So it's only useful for as long as you have the need for transactions

Which you will always have some need for, because resources aren't infinite, real estate isn't infinite, services aren't infinite, etc

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#475

Post by AlienRobot »

james_oofou wrote: post #444
muldvarp wrote: post #310

I'd love to see those "gigantic benefits". Currently, the only positive thing about LLMs I hear regularly is that it made people more productive. They don't get paid more (of course), they're just more productive.

more productivity at same cost = more stuff, cheaper

*To sell, not to buy.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#476

Post by bluefirebrand »

noduerme wrote: post #270
bluefirebrand wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But then does that turn into famine and mass-die-off Probably extremely bloody revolt and collapse

Only if you assume people's major motivation is wanting what they don't have, as opposed to wanting a little more to survive. History shows the opposite.

> History shows the opposite.

I strongly disagree, everything I know about history points the other way

Human history is littered with "people's major motivation is wanting what they don't have"

Look at the conflicts happening right now in Ukraine, or Israel

Come on, be serious

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#478

Post by squidbeak »

sokoloff wrote: post #471
squidbeak wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't see full automation with robotics as a possible outcome?

Theoretically possible? Maybe (but still an extremely slim chance). Practically possible? No. People (and countries) own land. Raw materials for robots comes from land. Energy for robots consumes land. Farming food requires massive inputs beyond just the land and energy (but also needs those). I don’t imagine we’ll get to a world where my great-great-great^20-grandkids can hold out their hand and have a plate of stea…

'Not ever' is a broad statement. Would you rule out off-planet mining and manufacturing? Or the scaling of artificial meat production?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#479

Post by sspiff »

palmotea wrote: post #221
javierluraschi wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will benefit all people but it will disproportionally benefit more rich people.

> It will benefit all people but it will disproportionally benefit more rich people. Yes: you'll be homeless and living under a bridge, but you'll have an LLM therapist on your phone to console you. That's a benefit!

For just $19.99/mo no doubt.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#480

Post by StackRanker3000 »

jfyi wrote: post #366
gyomu wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you rather be a 22 year old starting in life in 2025 or 1995? Unless you pick one of the few countries that underwent a drastic change of regime in that time, the answer’s pretty clear to me.

Given my skillset at age 22? Yeah, I'll take 1995. I was old enough to grow up hearing how great the world was going to be if I learned computer programming just to enter the job force at the start of the dotcom bubble burst. 1995 would have been a major upgrade. Also, knocking that almost decade off my birthday would assure that I spent most of my adult life with the luxury of thinking that energy didn't have negati…

Yes, the US was in a particularly prosperous and exciting period compared to much of the rest of the world in 1995. If you’re, say, Chinese, chances are you find life in 2025 much more appealing

Overall, life is better in 2025 for the vast majority of humans. Life expectancy, child mortality, health (despite the obesity epidemic, which is a result of an abundance that has eliminated hunger and food insecurity from large swathes of the globe), purchasing power, access to technology and entertainment, etc, etc…

That some people in the US are feeling disillusioned because housing has become more unaffordable (partly because of regulations and technological advancements that have improved their quality and safety) and that they don’t have the same incredible economic trajectory as the preceding generations, especially since WWII, doesn’t negate that. A run like that can’t last forever, especially since it to a large extent depends on having a relative advantage over the rest of the world - at some point, they’ll start to catch up

Much of the same dynamics apply to Europe, too

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