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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm from China. I know what real numbers and news come out of China.

Sure, you are. You created this account 2 hours ago, all comments anti China, perfect english and you write about China as "their" country in one of the comments.

Rare to see "you're a bot" be invoked for anti-Chinese sentiment. Thanks for the tickle today!

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#472
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, a tariff can be a good measure. But for that the tariffed goods need to be selected carefully and rationally und not whatever the heck the Trump administration is doing. For example you can tariff bananas all you like, that won't spark widespread banana production in a climate that can't grow them.

Hawaii produces 6.3 million lbs per year of bananas which is a tiny fraction of the 8 million metric tons per year Ecuador produces. Labor and land cost is the primary reason Hawaii can't compete with Latin America, but long-standing tariffs could change that.

About 2m people are employed directly or indirectly in the Ecuadorean banana industry. The total population of Hawaii is only 1.5m. Also you could fit Hawaii in a corner of Ecuador.

Unless you turned over all the islands exclusively to bananas, and forget about tourism, pineapples or anything else, you’re not even going to get close.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#474

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My point of view , from Europe, is that political violence is already there in the US. As well as state violence (not just on political opponents, but also on all minorities and "people who have a different opinion"). The next step is indeed a second civil war, with 21st century characteristics (hybrid war, etc...) I am not enthusiastic about the near future for the US nor for the world.

[flagged]

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#475

I don't understand why there isn't a market or company that develop already to move all items to low tariff area before sending to US. I know that manufacturing things here in Europe, there already used to be round trip by airplane and co to try to lower VAT paid on purchases to the maximum.

This is the intuition for tariffs for countries like Vietnam (where China used to send a lot of goods to for repackaging). Not a new idea, and one that customs will aggressively police.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#476
post #457

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Ironically, if a civil war was going to happen it will be because Trump's overuse of the military. It is such an newbie African dictator mistake. Every time you use the military to put down civil unrest you give them an inch of your power and before you know it, they figure they don't need the regime anymore. You will never see Putin outsourcing civilian tasks to the military.

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point of view , from Europe, is that political violence is already there in the US. As well as state violence (not just on political opponents, but also on all minorities and "people who have a different opinion"). The next step is indeed a second civil war, with 21st century characteristics (hybrid war, etc...) I am not enthusiastic about the near future for the US nor for the world.

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there’s demand for 5 million units and supply of 6 million prices will go down as 1 million units will be empty If there’s demand for 5 million units and supply of 4 million, prices will go up and 1 million will move out of the city

You conveniently left out the part where many large corporate landlords collude by using software like RealPage to enable widescale price fixing.

As do small landlords. they can only do this because supply is so constrained.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#479
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m curious whether it’s more the tariffs, or the uncertainty. No one knows what will happen on a day-to-day basis: the chaotic (and illegal) decision-making leaves everyone wondering what’s next.

The hiring slowdown predates tariffs. For various reasons CEOs either believe they can do more with less people, or that they can hire cheaper people in other geographies, or both. Businesses (tech or financials) don't seem to be telegraphing uncertainty, S&P 500 revenue is at all times high and trending up, earnings/profit all time highs and trending up, valuations all times high and trending up.

Nearly 10% of the s&p 500 value is one company- nvidia. The mag 7 make up a significant portion. Prosperity isn’t distributed, it’s concentrated and the stock market is not even close to the only measure of the health of the American economy.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Low labor costs are not why goods are produced in China. That viewpoint is outdated. Goods are produced in China because they have the most capacity and expertise. Don’t believe me. Believe Tim Cook: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2wacXUrONUY

He’s giving that speech in China. It’s impossible to know if he’s glazing or not. Either way, I would want to hear him commit to building those factories in the US if education was not a factor. I suspect real estate costs, unions, OSHA, and US wages are bigger factors than he’s letting on. Still, I’m not going to fault the man for complimenting China while speaking to a Chinese audience.

Apple had a lot of supply chain issues when trying to manufacture in the US. E.g. they failed to procure enough screws: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/technology/iphones-apple-...
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