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AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

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Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#471

Post by Qwertious »

irjustin wrote: post #446
fishsticks89 wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a conflict.

Is something the gov should subsidize or at least organize competitors to act like a cartel[0]? Such that the market forces don't push pricing that the plant would naturally die. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel

The phoebus cartel whine is bullshit - incandescent light bulbs should be limited to 1000 hours because 1) the cost of electricity used by the bulb is easily as much as the replacement bulb (in the 1920s/1930s), and running the bulb hotter makes it more energy-efficient, and 2) because running incandescents cold makes the light look sickly and awful. Light bulbs were mostly being sold by electric companies at the time, so trading one for the other didn't matter to them.

Planned obsolescence does happen, but the phoebus cartel is the worst 'example' of it.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#472

Post by alphabettsy »

Nathanba wrote: post #455
CamperBob2 wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The climate of uncertainty under Trump inhibits long-term investment, whether in chip fabs, car factories, or anything else. He has reminded us all of something that's really always been a problem: whatever one Congress or one POTUS supports can be undone by the next. Usually opposing parties have had the common sense not to immediately hit the undo button once they take office. E.g., Biden leaving most of Trump's pr…

Trump causes uncertainties in some areas but I would not say that fab investment or factories is one of those areas. The democratic president after Trump has pretty much kept the exact same course as Trump, even going so far as continuing to build the border wall that Trump started, continuing the tariff behavior as you noticed too and certainly they will continue to want chips factories at home in the US. That much…

Saying the Democrats are uniquely focused on racial and LGBT issues is completely detached from reality.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#473

Post by baggy_trough »

alphabettsy wrote: post #472
Nathanba wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump causes uncertainties in some areas but I would not say that fab investment or factories is one of those areas. The democratic president after Trump has pretty much kept the exact same course as Trump, even going so far as continuing to build the border wall that Trump started, continuing the tariff behavior as you noticed too and certainly they will continue to want chips factories at home in the US. That much…

Saying the Democrats are uniquely focused on racial and LGBT issues is completely detached from reality.

In what way? This is a huge part of their message.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#474

Post by Qwertious »

iammrpayments wrote: post #459
kulahan wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, Taiwán - that famously stable nation with no existential threats to its very existence. I don’t think this is an “if” situation, but rather a “when”. There is no question in my mind - it’s simply too attractive to China. It may not come through all out war, but they will eventually claim what they feel is theirs. They operate on much more manageable time scales.

What is so attractive to attempt the greatest amphibious assault in human history just to get an island with a bunch of people who will hate you and have nowhere to run away.

1) politics 2) breaking the US's submarine detection on the pacific, so now they can essentially slip unlimited undetected submarines into the pacific (and therefore the atlantic/indian) 3) being harder to navally blockade 4) disrupt the West's military chip advantage

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#475

Post by frollogaston »

acchow wrote: post #382
jychang wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that, unless you're willing to pay USA workers Taiwan salaries.

USA workers will not accept Taiwan salaries. Numbeo shows the cost of living (including rent) is 45% higher in Phoenix than in Hsinchu (where TSMC's 2N is) Rent is 176% higher.

Given this, I'm surprised they're only looking at a 5%-20% cost increase.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#476

Post by xmprt »

Qwertious wrote: post #471
irjustin wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is something the gov should subsidize or at least organize competitors to act like a cartel[0]? Such that the market forces don't push pricing that the plant would naturally die. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel

The phoebus cartel whine is bullshit - incandescent light bulbs should be limited to 1000 hours because 1) the cost of electricity used by the bulb is easily as much as the replacement bulb (in the 1920s/1930s), and running the bulb hotter makes it more energy-efficient, and 2) because running incandescents cold makes the light look sickly and awful. Light bulbs were mostly being sold by electric companies at the tim…

> the cost of electricity used by the bulb is easily as much as the replacement bulb

This point is only relevant if 1000 hour old bulbs cost more electricity to run than new bulbs. Maybe I don't understand how old bulbs worked but why couldn't they invent ways to make bulbs run hot which also last longer than 1000 hours.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#477

Post by petesergeant »

Qwertious wrote: post #474
iammrpayments wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is so attractive to attempt the greatest amphibious assault in human history just to get an island with a bunch of people who will hate you and have nowhere to run away.

1) politics 2) breaking the US's submarine detection on the pacific, so now they can essentially slip unlimited undetected submarines into the pacific (and therefore the atlantic/indian) 3) being harder to navally blockade 4) disrupt the West's military chip advantage

> breaking the US's submarine detection on the pacific

This doesn’t really hold up when looking at a map that includes Okinawa and Batanes.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#478

Post by petesergeant »

maxglute wrote: post #465
iammrpayments wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is so attractive to attempt the greatest amphibious assault in human history just to get an island with a bunch of people who will hate you and have nowhere to run away.

Political reunification, i.e. land > people, see PRC saying "keep the island not the people". At this point no amphibious assault needed, just blockading TW and turning into gaza via mainland munitions now that starving masses is normalized is an option too.

How do you turn an island into Gaza when the US is providing weapons to it, and not to the other side? Ukraine seems like it would be a better example.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#479

Post by ahartmetz »

xmprt wrote: post #476
Qwertious wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The phoebus cartel whine is bullshit - incandescent light bulbs should be limited to 1000 hours because 1) the cost of electricity used by the bulb is easily as much as the replacement bulb (in the 1920s/1930s), and running the bulb hotter makes it more energy-efficient, and 2) because running incandescents cold makes the light look sickly and awful. Light bulbs were mostly being sold by electric companies at the tim…

> the cost of electricity used by the bulb is easily as much as the replacement bulb This point is only relevant if 1000 hour old bulbs cost more electricity to run than new bulbs. Maybe I don't understand how old bulbs worked but why couldn't they invent ways to make bulbs run hot which also last longer than 1000 hours.

Light bulbs die because the filament slowly evaporates. If you increase the filament temperature just a little, efficiency increases quickly and life expectancy decreases quickly. They were already using the most heat-resistant metals, too. It's not sabotage, it's physics.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#480

Post by SecretDreams »

frollogaston wrote: post #475
acchow wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USA workers will not accept Taiwan salaries. Numbeo shows the cost of living (including rent) is 45% higher in Phoenix than in Hsinchu (where TSMC's 2N is) Rent is 176% higher.

Given this, I'm surprised they're only looking at a 5%-20% cost increase.

It just gives a hint of how much salaries play into opex for TSMC: not a lot, apparently.
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