GLP-1s are breaking life insurance • Hacker News Board

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#471

Post by yesfitz » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:06 PM UTC

popupeyecare wrote: post #450

Anyone read the source and find the 98% accuracy stat? The source link has a UTM source of ChatGPT. Could it be a hallucination?

Maybe more of a misinterpretation by AI and/or author than full on hallucination.

"Life insurers can predict when you'll die with about 98% accuracy."

"98%" appears in the citation[1], but as the ratio of actual deaths to expected deaths. (i.e. 98% of the deaths they expected actually occurred.) Some months that figure was ~104%, so it's not a measure of accuracy.

1: https://www.soa.org/4aa060/globalassets/assets/files/resourc...

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#472

Post by kccqzy » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:06 PM UTC

johndhi wrote: post #447

Can't they just adjust their model based on whether the patient is on a GLP-1 and account for the likelihood they'll stop taking it?

The article addressed this. The person could have gotten GLP-1 from a D2C provider and insurance has no record of this person ever taking GLP-1.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#473

Post by refurb » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:08 PM UTC

int_19h wrote: post #325

jtrn wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For semaglutide, the newest and most potent GLP1. United States: The main patent is expected to expire around 2032. Monthly Price: $950 - $1,350+ (cash price without insurance) Norway: The main patent is expected to expire around 2031. Monthly Price: $109 - $301 (cash price equivalent in USD)

If these things really boost life expectancy that much, this sounds like a textbook case for eminent domain.

Imagine that incentive for R&D.

“If you invest hundreds of millions and it turns out to be life changing, we’re going to seize it”

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#474

Post by ceejayoz » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:10 PM UTC

Tangurena2 wrote: post #448

glp1guide wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Liraglutide is now available as a generic, but it is the least effective of the big 3 (Semaglutide, Tirzepatide, Liraglutide): Basically, Tirz > Sema > Lira https://glp1.guide/content/semaglutide-vs-tirzepatide-clinic... https://glp1.guide/content/semaglutide-liraglutide-continue-... https://glp1.guide/content/another-generic-liraglutide-launc...

I used to be prescribed Victoza (for diabetes). When liraglutide (the generic) went off-patent, every pharmacy reported that both Victoza and liraglutide were "no longer available".

The generic manufacturers get paid not to make it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/pharmaceut...

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#475

Post by ecb_penguin » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:11 PM UTC

hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #176

ecb_penguin wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the Dunning–Kruger effect is the thesis that those who are incompetent in a given area tend to be ignorant of their incompetence, i.e., they lack the metacognitive ability to become aware of their incompetence. This definition lends itself to a simple explanation of the effect: incompetence often includes being unable to tell the difference between competence and incompetence." I think this very accurately sums up y…

Well jeez, that sounds awful. Thank goodness I've always been great at everything I've done so I never gave to face this.

Well, at least you stopped arguing about how easy term life insurance is.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#476

Post by SirMaster » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:13 PM UTC

nerevarthelame wrote: post #120

firesteelrain wrote: post #24

I was on Mounjaro for two months. I was also dieting and walking 10k steps a day. I lost 25 lb and my A1C went down to 5.0 from 5.7. All my cholesterol numbers were in range. I stopped taking it and lost 25 more. I haven’t regained the weight. People who gain it back did not learn the lesson and did not effectively change their habits. You need the discipline - and a good support system. But if you don’t have that an…

This is akin to saying a severely anxious person should be able to take an SSRI for a few months, learn how to change their thinking, and stay off antidepressants for the rest of their life. So simple. Must be their fault if they can't pull it off. Perhaps that works for some people. I'm glad it seems to have worked for you. But the facts of the world we live in show that it doesn't work for most. "Learn the lesson a…

You think that controlling your anxiety and controlling what you put into your mouth are equal things?

I would say that controlling what you put into your mouth is easier than controlling your anxiety.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#477

Post by nrenegar » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:13 PM UTC

popupeyecare wrote: post #450

Anyone read the source and find the 98% accuracy stat? The source link has a UTM source of ChatGPT. Could it be a hallucination?

It's extremely incorrect. 98% accuracy on when "you'll" die would imply an R^2 of 0.98 for individual-level lifespan predictions. We are nowhere close to that.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#478

Post by joshuacc » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:14 PM UTC

pmyteh wrote: post #431

eru wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of the patent system, but "patent system promises spoils for coming up with great new drug, companies comes up with great new drug, companies gets spoils" is exactly how it's supposed to work. Yes, it's sucks that you have to pay, but that's how you incentives getting the wonder drugs invented in the first place. (I have my own take on this, but if anything this is a 'textbook case' in favour of the patent…

Depending on how transformative the effects are (and the price drop possible upon genericisation) then there could be a compulsory licensing trade to do here. The drug companies are presumably pricing optimally for profit (but not for maximum public benefit, for which the optimum price is ~0). You could calculate the net present value of the drug companies' total profits attributable to the patent, add on 10% as a bo…

Citation needed for the idea that zero is the optimal price for public benefit. Among other issues, I expect medication compliance would be higher when the patient has to pay for the medication.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#479

Post by jollyllama » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:24 PM UTC

Can't the insurance companies just look for stretch marks?

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#480

Post by throaway955 » Mon, Jul 14, 2025, 2:36 PM UTC

petesergeant wrote: post #35

firesteelrain wrote: post #24

I was on Mounjaro for two months. I was also dieting and walking 10k steps a day. I lost 25 lb and my A1C went down to 5.0 from 5.7. All my cholesterol numbers were in range. I stopped taking it and lost 25 more. I haven’t regained the weight. People who gain it back did not learn the lesson and did not effectively change their habits. You need the discipline - and a good support system. But if you don’t have that an…

> People who gain it back did not learn the lesson and did not effectively change their habits. You need the discipline This is deeply misguided. I’m glad that the little assist was enough for you, but if “healthy habits” were enough then people who’d lost weight the traditional way would keep it off. Further, unless you’ve been off it for more than six months, I’d hold your judgement on this one.

Some people DO keep it off. Ive never been obese but ive been overweight, extremely unhealthy, pre diabetic, couch-potato for years at a time. For me, it's always a matter of getting into the mindset that these things are not just "not good," they are literally poison for me!

I've seen a few obese friends of mine lose weight and gain it back. And while I can't put words in their mouths, I have never noticed them have the attitude that "being obese will kill me."