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The Rise of Whatever

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Re: The Rise of Whatever

#471

Post by ninetyninenine »

throwawayoldie wrote: post #429
ninetyninenine wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>People will write lengthy and convoluted explanation on why LLM isn't like calculator or microwave oven or other technology before. (Like OP's article) But it really is. You generally don't need a lengthy explanation because it's common sense. When someone doesn't get it then people have to go into lengthy convoluted explanations because they are trying to elucidate common sense to someone who doesn't get it. I mean…

> The first thing is we don't understand it. It's a black box. We understand the learning algorithm that trains the weights, but we don't understand conceptually how an LLM works Wrong. > You are talking to a thing that understands what you say to it Wrong.

Prove your statements. Otherwise it's equivalent to AI slop. You're written response is no different and no better, therefore what's the point of you even responding? I'd prefer an AI bot to write a retort because it'd be more intelligent then just "wrong".

Not trying to be insulting here. But genuinely if you think humanity is better then AI, why is your response to me objectively WORSE then AI slop?? Prove your own statements by being better yourself, otherwise your own statement is in itself proof against your point.

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#472

Post by ninetyninenine »

this15testingg wrote: post #135
ninetyninenine wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The things that were revolutionary in the past all eventually become common place and boring. It's happened to almost everything and continues to happen to anything new that comes out. LLMs will accelerate the pace of this assimilation. New trends and new things will become popular and generic so fast that we'll have to get really inventive to stay ahead of the curve.

ahead of what curve? intrinsically human endeavors are drowned in noise. what is the point? if even drawing/writing/singing are not worth doing anymore both because effort and the experience itself is worthless, I might as well step in front of a tesla taxi so I can escape this world. human ingenuity is amazing, but this whole mess is embarrassing

Most human endeavor is drowned in the noise of other human endeavors. It was like this before AI. And with AI the noise becomes even larger. Noise is what I mean by "curve".

Basically most of it is all noise but eventually something blows ahead of the curve and shines for a couple of seconds before the curve/wave catches up and engulfs it again.

Most of what "goes" ahead of the "curve" is achievements of other people. You, I, and most other people are just watching other exceptional or lucky individuals shine for a couple of seconds. We are all watchers. There's no difference from our perspective if the people we are watching are humans or AI. It's not us anyway.

If you are an exceptional genius who regularly achieves things that go past the "curve" then you will be affected. You will watch AI achieve things faster than you, do better than you, etc. In this case you are affected.

Keep in mind that this "curve" I talk about is both global and has many many localized instances. Like a superstar at a start up is a localized example of an individual blowing past a localized curve, and Einstein is a global example of an individual excelling past a global curve.

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#473

Post by thedevilslawyer »

ako wrote: post #55
bruce511 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, LLMs are just the most recent step in a long road of doing the same thing. At any point of progress in history you can look backwards and forwards and the world is different. Before tractors a man with an ox could plough x field in y time. After tractors he can plough much larger areas. The nature of farming changes. (Fewer people needed to farm more land. ) The car arrives, horses leave. Computers arrive…

The scare for most people is that AI isn't better tools, but outsourced work. In the past we would create our own products, now other countries do this. In the past we did our own thinking and creative activities, now LLMs will. If we don't have something better to do we'll all be at home doing nothing. We all need jobs to afford living, and already today many have bullshit jobs. Are we going to a world where 99.9% o…

Assuming that's going to happen (outsourcing), what's wrong with that?

If you're a nationalist, your worry is obvious enough, but if you're a humanist, then it's wonderful that the more downtrodden are going to improve their station, while the better off wait for them.

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#474

Post by thedevilslawyer »

thankyoufriend wrote: post #48
bruce511 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, LLMs are just the most recent step in a long road of doing the same thing. At any point of progress in history you can look backwards and forwards and the world is different. Before tractors a man with an ox could plough x field in y time. After tractors he can plough much larger areas. The nature of farming changes. (Fewer people needed to farm more land. ) The car arrives, horses leave. Computers arrive…

The difference between GenAI and your examples is a theft component. They stole our data - your data - and used it to build a machine that diverts wealth to the rich. The only equitable way for GenAI to move forward is if we all own a share of it, since it would not exist in its current form without our data. GenAI should be a Universal Basic Asset.

Today you can go buy and be an owner in AI by buying the AI company stocks. You are enabled by the system that we have..

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#475

Post by econ »

This writeup makes the www worth it. Thanks for writing it up. "Whatever" captures the context wonderfully.

Values at times seem like a property of an extinct subspecies. Like being born with a tail.

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#476

Post by m0wer »

tromp wrote: post #442
m0wer wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it change your view if they mined instead of buying? If you were to create a decentralized and limited supply currency, how would you distribute it so that it's “fair”? Sounds a bit like if the world was running only on proprietary software created by Microsoft and you criticized the move to open source because that would enrich Linus Torvalds and other code creators/early adopters. Are people better off by con…

It's more fair if every generation gets to mine the same amount. You want supply to be predictable and for the inflation rate to go steadily down, but there's not much point in limiting the supply [1]. [1] https://tromp.github.io/blog/2020/12/20/soft-supply

Not sure. IMO the best thing that could happen for the next generation is to be born in a Bitcoin standard were politicians don't control money, people are incentivized to save, and the world does not need to use housing and stocks as a way of saving and protecting against inflation.

Technological progress makes the world deflationary. Your money should be able to buy more every time as we improve the productive efficiency of everything. And for poor countries, the best thing they could get is a censor resistant and value preserving tool.

Even if there was a tail emission, newer generations wouldn't have the capital needed for mining rigs. That's not just something unique to this case, same happens with stocks, real state or any other investment asset.

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#477

Post by ako »

thedevilslawyer wrote: post #473
ako wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scare for most people is that AI isn't better tools, but outsourced work. In the past we would create our own products, now other countries do this. In the past we did our own thinking and creative activities, now LLMs will. If we don't have something better to do we'll all be at home doing nothing. We all need jobs to afford living, and already today many have bullshit jobs. Are we going to a world where 99.9% o…

Assuming that's going to happen (outsourcing), what's wrong with that? If you're a nationalist, your worry is obvious enough, but if you're a humanist, then it's wonderful that the more downtrodden are going to improve their station, while the better off wait for them.

Read the news, you’ll see what’s wrong. The people that lost their job to outsourcing will be unhappy, and very susceptible to easy “solutions” from populists like blaming foreigners. And from there you go to unlawful deportations, and a very polarized country where some have everything and others have nothing due to no longer having a job. And when you have no job, and no money, but still have to pay the bills, for some crime seems a solution. So as a country you need to spend more on crime fighting, where that same money could have gone to education, but that’s not the solution people like, because “why should I pay for someone else’s education?” At the same time they’re overlooking the fact that education mostly has a positive ROI, as more education usually results in a better economy in a country, whereas crime fighting has a negative ROI for tax money spend.

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#479

Post by eesmith »

SAI_Peregrinus wrote: post #466
eesmith wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes ... Isn't that my point? I meant it as an example of how neither "basic mental maths and ... sanity checks" nor is a calculator with a 0.5% error rate are appropriate.

I mean that it's not a difference of accuracy, it's a difference of domain. A calculator & a slide rule have the same domain, an abacus and Mayan Quipu have the same domain. The calculator & abacus are faster than the slide rule & Quipu. Similarly a typewriter has the same accuracy as handwriting a document (worse if a pencil is used since typewriter's can't easily correct mistakes), but typing took over book writing…

I lead with the example of my accountant using a calculator to show it has a different domain than a slide rule, or simple mental techniques.

Re: The Rise of Whatever

#480

Post by octo888 »

> Like, just to calibrate here: you know how some code editors will automatically fill in a right bracket or quote when you type a left one

This drives me mad in JetBrains' products mostly because there are about 14 ways to completely disable it (including Rider, which is different to the others). There should be a single toggle for "Disable all 'smart' completions"

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